With beef at $5.80/kg a steers bum looks as good to me as a fist full of $100 notes.
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True, I agree. It's likely to be another 50+ years for me so I plan to add skills, try and learn as I go but I was also thinking that it may be wise for me to take it easy on the next (this?) downward cycle and spend more time on the sidelines observing what happens. Having only started investing in 2013 I have no experience in medium to large corrections or bear markets and don't want to bite off more than I can chew. Perhaps if I get a good handle on what happens this time, I'll be more experienced, comfortable and confident to apply different and more aggressive strategies the next time around. Although taking a quiet stroll down the back roads also doesn't seem so bad and you're right sometimes the most enjoyable road is the scenic route you didn't intend on taking.
Why is everyone acting like something unusual is happening? The markets are just going up and down like they always do. This thread has moved into very strange territory
Sounds very sensible Bobby Moroccco. My first year of work and exposure to the stock market was 1988 just post the big crash.
You will learn far more from big corrections or market collapses than at any other time.
You appear to have the right temperament so good luck to you.
Two words I think some up trading or investing.
Discipline & patience.
Your not wrong ratkin but then its human nature to turn nothing into something, my red arrow gets bigger and smaller and bigger again so its all just run of the mill stuff as far as I'm concerned. PS- Some big divvys will be hitting my bank account over the next few weeks so all good.
the noise is not just the share market --the noise is inside our head for everything---maybe consider a 10 day meditation course--its not a walk in the park but if your that way inclined you can PM me for details-(Its not any form of religion-just working on disciplining the mind(they say it makes a much better servant ,than master)-otherwise good luck on your experiment.
spot on Roger--These are just some economic roads--there are plenty of other roads that have absolutely stunning scenery(really important things in life)
Ive noticed that many posters ,when hearing about what some think is the dire state of things economically,make the mistake of thinking we dont know these other roads exist.--Of course these roads are a metaphor but in terms of the literal-go back and look at my ''crises what crises'' post on this thread:)--Its only a road ,but a dang nice one(its the cultural rewards of the trip that really hit home) but im sure everyone has there equivalent. (post 545)
Im amazed at our NZ markets ability to stay somehow insulated from all this---The OZ market is sure not liking Fridays results
LOL - I think we need a poll or what we'd miss the most for the 10 days. Be a tough gig not patting my dogs for 10 days or going on Trade Me to dream about a new boat or no driving my cars, no drinking, no speaking, no meat, no T.V....I suspect not having my wife nag me for 10 whole days would be a really beautiful, enriching, and calming experience...talking about finding utopia....I'm just about ready to sign up LOL
What I found interesting today, is that in a sea of Red (especially on the ASX), speculative stocks (like XRO and PEB) did very very well today (both up over 6%) meanwhile the traditional 'blue chips' did not do so well (like Fletcher Building, down close to 4%)... interesting because when things are as volatile and "unsure" as they supposedly are, speculative stocks don't usually lead the charge (then again, one would argue they may have been 'oversold' in recent weeks, especially PEB at least)
Guess we will find out tomorrow if the markets continue their slide---sometimes those day to day things can be one giant puzzle,esp in a market like NZX,which in itself seems to have bucked the trend(today at least)
Are you betting on XRO as well TJ?
Not quite sure how to interpret ''fun''--Do you mean ''fun'' as in PEB fun ?
Sometimes the best 'fun'' is learning how to spell it backwards.
Glad you learned how to exit in some cases
Anyone else sitting on 99% cash at the moment?
My view is that shares are like hot bimbos, you'll want to have as many as you can at once, but by god you've got to know when to pull out or you'll find yourself with some serious financial problems for the next few decades.
With more and more imputated dividends hitting my bank I am finding my concerns for world markets are lessening by the day.
My NZ portfolio is full of companies with strong balance sheets,low debt,excellent cash flows,many exporters,and all have the capacity to keep increasing their dividends.
"Well positioned." lol
TJ ,there are so many holes in that logic that I dont know where to start---Tradeing shares does not mean that you blindly stay in at all times--of course you monitor when you are out for a time to reenter -(If you are successful you will be back in your preferred stock at a far better price) (wouldnt you like to have your PEB shares at the price I could get them for today?)Could be a VERY long run.
Your scientific fact(which is just statistics)is no reason to buy into a correction or possible crash.
Surely you must see that not all is well out there,even though the NZ markets have stood up relatively well--Any one who is paying attention would know that if the world markets do get into more serious trouble they will pull the NZ market down with them (go back and look at the last GFC)
now that may not happen ,but to criticize someone who has decided to keep his powder dry through this period (and that includes me)is a bit reckless.
At the moment there are still NZ shares that are doing well for investors so it makes sense for them to stay put and monitor--but not blindly hold because of some stats--I dare say that if you get caught ,your ''long run'' will be considerably longer than others who were more cautious.
Why?--Because the poster may not have the same reserves as you that allows him to gamble in the same reckless manner--no offence but I cant think of another way to describe the losses you have noted.
Cash is relatively safe and allows an investor to maybe enter at a far better price--a price that represents a more realistic value --(or at less than the value if the share has been pulled down by others.)
He will have plenty of time to get into the market and participate when things settle down.
We will agree to disagree Skid, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum for a multitude of reasons:cool:
Those dividends represent a period before all these economic concerns have come up--Thats great that you have good shares,but I guess the real question is ,is this the time for someone just starting to buy them? Im not suggesting either way but just putting things in perspective.
I think the important point in your post is that you have gone for relatively safe and stable shares. Its the spec plays that are dangerous and even safe shares need to be monitored IMO
We dont know what shares ,if any the poster has sold to go to cash,but there are many that would indicate he was prudent to do so.
I think your post is excellent,and it reminds us, we all have different objectives from the market,and the companies that make up the market , at various stages of our life.And yes anyone starting out would do very well with my portfolio of quality companies.
For me boring is best,although I still think there is a place for a small % of any portfolio in well thought out specs.My specs are small cap Aussie companies,which I hope are not really specs,but young aggressive growth companies just waiting for the market to find them..
On the thread "Where to invest? my post #2 .. 01-10-2011 would have been very profitable for those people who brought those shares,and they will continue to be so.
I understand absolutely what you are saying, and contra to my name, I should have said I was talking about things from a "investor" perspective, not trader... otherwise yes could certainly be possible to have 100% cash at times
Lewylewylewy seemed to be implying that when you own shares for a few decades (ie not trading, an investor) they will cause serious problems, which is, well plain wrong (going on an average/index basis at least anyway)
Would be great if I had more cash to scoop up PEB, like fund managers probably are, but hey I'm not going to complain about the 10% in the past 8-9 hours of trading :t_up:
Lewly said ''but you've got to know when to pull out''--That I believe goes for investors as well as traders--There is no reason why wanting to own a stock you like long term,prevents you from exiting when things are decidedly dicey.
Yes ,a good little short term burst for PEB--but what does it tell you when people get excited over it hitting 50-51---Its a very dangerous share---even the early investors must be getting close to a loss on paper if they held right through.---Its a buy and hold nightmare.
Its a small co that made big claims---keep your eye on MDX that made 3X the sales and has a much smaller forecast for the bladder cancer test market sales-(Whats to keep them from taking over the market?)--Institutions seem to be the only news--wheres the news from the company?(Devon has done ok in the past but made a notable loss in the last 6 months)
You came on posting in May so if you had bought then you still have considerable ground to cover-(+-40%)-think of those who bought @$1+or more-(like me @$1 before bailing @.90)--You seem to think of PEB as a blue chip instead of a pretty risky spec stock (in troubled economic times)---but nevertheless enjoy the party for now
Not much of a party yet, as like many PEB investors, I'm at a loss... but its nice to see there has been a bit of a bounce and lets just see where it goes in the next couple of years (although I didn't think it would go much below 60c). They have made big claims, claims they actually don't yet need to back up (its 2015 not 2018...) and they have ample cash, so nothing to panic about (yet). I am not sure on MDX so I can't really comment but anyway lets not turn this into another PEB thread...
agreed --it was just an example--the happiest atm seem to be those getting Divies
Hi Skid, some can't as it would make them a trader and force them to pay tax on their profits. As things stand at present my buy/hold portfolio gets a 30 odd % advantage over my trading portfolio for this very reason. Something even the most ardent of traders would find difficult to emulate.
A puzzle that needs solving
All the optimistic people who are 100% in are hoping for the paranoid" to sell so they can buy "cheap" shares....Hmmmm...with what?...you have no cash????
I think the IRD in NZ may have a different view especially if you went and bought the shares back again when the market turned. I know the old adage of "7 trades makes a trader" is not correct, but I think if you sell your portfolio (and not at the same time) then the IRD will most certainly take an interest in proceedings.
Not to say that I do not sell stock and buy others...ie sold some MTU and bought CDD to "re weight" my portfolio but in general I do not buy/sell/buy sell when I think the stock is trading outside its valuation.
Whether one is or is not a trader is at best still a very grey area.
Im not so sure I agree with that BC--If I buy a share because i like it and want to hold it as an investment for the long term,but the market turns and i have to sell to preserve capital and not lose my shirt --It seems very logical that when the market does turn back ,I would want to get back in that very share,for the reason that my main motivation was in the first place to hold long term.
Just because its an investment, doesnt mean you do nothing if that investment is threatened.
If you had had money in one of those finance cos that went bust and you did your homework ahead of time and realized something was rotten--would you have sold?
If it gets to the point that it does qualify as taxable,Is that really so bad ,compared to losing big time.
I think you are confusing jumping in and out of shares consistently,with exiting when a possible financial crises may be looming.
Do you work? I hope not because that is also taxable.
This is one area where you and i agree on completely and every new purchase starts with a new intent regardless of how many times you owned the same share previously, the IRD master tax guide only defines intent at time of purchase as the critical factor in determining your tax liability not reason for selling. It appears grey simply because we dont have a universal capital gains tax in NZ.
I know where you and KW and Couta are coming from and yes it is with every share purchase the "intent" that is critical. I am not disputing that. However try and tell some IRD audit clerk that your intent was to buy and hold indefinitely for income when all they see are a whole bunch of buys and sells on your trade sheet......
''I see you have a whole bunch of buys and sells on your trade sheet''....''yes,that true sir,can I deduct the $300,000 loss from my work income''?
Yeah its looking pretty ugly.
Indeed "intention at the time of purchase" is the legal test. When selling I think it's prudent to make a note of the reason, focusing on factors which may impinge on the company's future sustainability and profitability, and therefore ability to pay dividends. Mentioning the likely direction of stock prices may call into question the motive behind the purchase... When selling several holdings for no other clear reason, it may pay to note general economic concerns - to avoid the implication of 'market concerns' where the sales are largely at a profit.
:p........https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/i...WxScSOmHclVJvQ.................:p
Very interesting article by Colin Nicholson on corrections in a bull market
http://www.bwts.com.au/download/educational-articles/Corrections%20in%20Bull%20Markets.pdf
Yep a good article as he has a good investment plan..however he gives back too much money to Mr Market for my likening, nowadays trigger signals are more sophisticated...but..each to their own..
Question:...The bull market cycle has been running for 6.5 years...2.75 years longer than the Average Bull...so why does nearly everyone assume this is just another bull market correction and say don't worry don't sell as you will regret it???
Question: what is there to regret when you have the power to sell and then buy back in?...brokeage fees are cheap nowadays
Question: what does a "always hold during corrections" investor do when the index loses -21% sell or hold? or -22%?
Question: What does a "always hold during corrections" investor do when the index correction is -15% and a couple of their portfolio stocks have feared worse.. say dropping -30%?.
Question: Do you really want to stay in an average -15% correction watching your capital shrink, induring disapointment after disappointment, fear of the "what ifs", stress, worry..and relying on "Hope" as an investment strategy?
All the above questions have answers that are neither right or wrong thereby creating investor dilemma...Investor dilemma destroys investor confidence.
Me personally..As a chartist I don't care which way the market goes..bull or bear it makes no difference to me..If my stock creates a sell signal during the red times as it is atm its a compulsory sell...easy!!!..Strict TAers don't suffer from many dilemma problems. I sometime have dilemma problems and it's totally self-inflicted (breaking the discipline rules)
keep calm and keep cashing up, i'm taking a few 5% losses too. Better than 25% losses possible in a few months. ASX all ords looking very sick, NZX not so bad.
Looks like china is getting whacked again and the Dow pre market is not looking great
I'm thinking this is an opportunity to buy, particularly markets that aren't as over valued like the Kiwi & Aussie markets.
Technically they are on the cusp of breaking lower, but they haven't yet or haven't confirmed the move yet.
China I am sure is propping up their market & that should assist other indices around the world as well.
I'm not hugely bullish, but I think this is perhaps just the bottom of the present range trade & trading it as such.
This might help the break - lower that is... I see more red on the horizon, this out of China this morning...
THE Caixin flash China general manufacturing PMI plunged to 78-month low at 47.0 in September from 47.3 in August, a preliminary Caixin survey showed on Wednesday.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below that represents contraction.
The sub-index on manufacturing output retreated to a 78-month low of 45.7 in September from 46.4 in August, according to the survey from Caixin Media Co., Ltd.
"The decline indicates the nation's manufacturing industry has reached a crucial stage in the structural transformation process. Overall, the fundamentals are good," said Dr. He Fan, chief economist at Caixin Insight Group.
He pointed out that weakening factory activity is tied to previous changes in factors related to external demand and prices.
The flash index is published on a monthly basis ahead of final PMI data, making it the earliest available indicator of manufacturing conditions in China.
The estimate is based on approximately 85 to 90 percent of total PMI survey responses from over 420 manufacturing companies each month and is designed to provide an indication of the final PMI.
The final PMI for September will be released on October 1.
Yes, this was primarily what the Asian markets including NZ reacted to today
Keep in mind that China is a controlled economy. The govt is likely to throw more stimulus at it to stoke the fire a bit more, if it believes growth is below their target 7% (ish). I read a good article on CNBC about it today
Head note: DTV = [averaged] daily traded value.
After quite a few thin days today we have
Six companies which have set new 12 month high closing prices today:
CVT - Comvita
NZR - New Zealand Refining
PAY - Pushpay (poor DTV)
THL - Tourism Holdings
TIL - Trilogy International
ZEL - Z Energy
In addition I have 9 companies in the green zone on both price and DTV:
ATM, COA, EBO, FPH, FSF, GNE, HBY, SCL, VHP
and ABA & HLG which are green on price but yellow (reasonable: $80K -> $160K per day) DTV
Looks like there is still some money being made - but DYOR and be especially careful in these interesting times.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Discs:
Own some but not all of the above mentioned shares :);
Also own some but not all of the rest of the shares on the NZX :mellow:;
This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or make disparaging comments on anything ;);
Start new medicines tomorrow :huh:
Markets bouncing back, DOW futures now 130 pts off today's lows.
Aussie market bouncing as well.
That's exactly right xafalcon & since the G20 I think Beijing has been supporting the market higher.
I track about 68 companies - NZ50 and fringe, using a similar colour scheme.
25 - about 40% - are within 2.5% of their 30 day highs - or better.
Attachment 7616.
- M30, M60, M90, M500 - refers to 30,60,90, and 500 day highs.
- Orange shade = within 2.5% of the high for that period
- Yellow shade, green text and underlined = at a high for that period
- Red text = more than 15% lower than the high for that period
Some NZ shares and likely some NZ share investors are doing well right now.
Both Kiwi & Aussie down with the Aussie in particular thumped.
Great for exporters & the Aussie miners who have maintained an Aussie exposure.
Ya gotta laugh---Watching an interview (markets slightly down but in a holding pattern) Talking about across the globe how manufacturing and revenue are down,disappointing results from most countries,(you know ,those things that make an economy work)but most are more concerned with whether Janet Yellen is going to pretend that she may raise interest rates sometime this year
unless overseas money comes in to take advantage of higher interest ,because in their country interest rates are as good as zero--(its not happening yet because most are still in ''safe harbor'' mode in terms of currency because things are looking so dangerous out there.)
But the fact remains that the NZX is in many ways swimming against the current compared with other markets and holding up so far
Sorry -late night last night--was thinking of the Kiwi dollar which would rise--nevertheless,those TDs would still be attractive if the market in general was continuing its slide--(most would think twice buying into a market thats tanking-but if the NZ market and economy stay above water or rise(like the example given),then no reason to cut interest rates--guess it depends on whats ahead.--(they certainly did jump the gun on interest rate increases)
I think the ''gotta put my dosh somewhere with better return'' works when things are cruising --not so well when there is fear.--When scary things are happening (even overseas) investors start to think of safety over
returns
Dow getting near to 16000 again..this is not looking good at all.
Well does anyone recall during the Greek crisis, the DAX was bouncing between 10700 - 11500. Its now trading at 9400. I really can't see things getting much worse in Europe and if stocks start to recover there, I would expect US stocks to recover also.
I think the next few weeks will be volatile, but the next Quarters earnings will start to be reported in a few weeks and they may help to halt this recent pull back.
"Beware the Bear" .. says Colin Twiggs. http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts...ding_diary.php
Are you optimistic about next quarters earnings?--Things have been pretty volatile lately --We are addicted to sensationalism by the media-but by far the worse scenario is a slow but consistent (with of course variations along the way) downturn in the markets.
Alot of ''just a little bit lower'' start to really hurt. At some point you realize you are a boiled frog.
Caterpillar is a mega large company and the main reason for its decline is China.
More and more countries are going to start to fell that bite if indeed the possibilities we are starting to suspect really do play out.
Those running one of the world leading economies really have no track record in how to manage this sort of thing,so the juries out on that.
the emerging countries will be the first to really get into trouble-(remember when Greece was our biggest worry?)--there are some new ones on the list now--Had a good look at Brazil lately(debt)
The talk seems to have changed from ''Im gonna make a fortune on the potential growth co.'' to Dividends (and thats a step in the right direction)--If your gonna play this game,it better be with caution at this stage---Our new potential economic leader has stumbled. IMO-DYOR
I have been doing some off the wall thinking
Since the GFC, developed economies around the world are consistently failing to follow "proven" economic models dating back 40+ years
The surrounding economic conditions are certainly very atypical - very low global interest rates, very low global inflation (except for a few hot-spots like Russia), various treasuries printing mountains of cash or just finished doing so, commodity prices almost universally depressed to multi-year lows
So should we still expect global sharemarkets to behave the same way they did pre-GFC? ie. will models of the past actually work in the current environment?
This uncertainty may go some way to explaining the diverging views of how this market will play-out
Nothing "off the wall" about that thinking. I guess even the most backward thinking analyst is by now aware that we are in uncharted territory and that the so far prevailing stock cycles do not work anymore. This makes obviously a fertile breeding ground for nutters and doomsday prophets.
The only model we could look at how long term low interest rates combined with low growth rates might work out is Japan, and this is not a very flash example, though it was not the big doomsday scenario either (Japan going for 20 years or so sidewards with a mild downtrend).
So - yes, you are right ... the established patterns don't apply anymore, the previously reasonably effective control of the Feds (interest up when times are good and interest down when they are bad) don't work anymore due to the Fed's under-steering ... and so the vehicle of the world's economy is currently sliding off the road.
Nobody really knows where we will end up this time. We just might end up undamaged in a nice meadow and drive back onto the road, or we might crash against a tree. On the positive side ... humans are sort of used to be in uncharted areas ... and the best achievements typically come when we explore them - i.e. it is probably a fair assumption that we will get out of this mess and upwards again, but we don't know when and how.
Whatever it is, it is always sensible not to panic - and particularly as long as interest rates are low would I think that good stocks with sound PE's will stay in demand. I don't know what the stock markets will make next week or next month, but I do know that good companies providing services and products people need will win long term over other investments.
-Its been ''short term fix ''at the expense of the economy in general(in terms of its underlying health-debt,etc)
They may be able to postpone for longer with a QE4 or something but the end result will be the same or worse,unless the basics are fixed.
China has created the perfect bubble--the new middle class certainly didnt see it coming with the share market and all the excess real estate created--the rest of the world (especially certain countries)have lapped it up with all that demand for commodities from China-(fueled by all that easy money greed)-but now that has slowed and some new emotions ,doubt and fear have crept in.
Japan was not doomsday as it was only one country,but many,especially property owners were horribly affected(many wiped out)
Im sure the Japan situation would be more than enough for most to deal with-
It may be worth looking into just what companies and what services survived Japan-and the other actual crashes(besides the obvious cash in hand)
Ie. Pic your favorite stock, and look at the 10 year (or longer, chart)
In NZ residential property prices have been pretty resilient in downturns. For example there was a dip in house prices during the GFC but nothing like what occurred with share prices. Much of the resilience would be because of NZ's tax policies...favoured treatment of owner-occupied housing, lack of capital gains, easy ability to leverage investor housing in conjunction with negative gearing meaning that investors in NZ can off-set losses against other income sources (including salaries). I do not know how Japan treats investor housing or housing in general but the Japanese experience (and American for that matter) may not be relevant in the current NZ investment and tax regime which favours investment in housing.
If you believe this guy.....then yes, the bear is certainly just starting. What is a bit interesting in the clip is the way he relates the economic outcomes to demographics. Specifically, he identifies the baby boomers ending their bubble of spending as a problem.
Quite interesting...he reckons deflations is coming to the US in a big way...holding cash won't be so bad afterall if that comes to fruition.
http://pro.dentresearch.com/DOW_IES_EXT/LBNBR921?h=true
Hope the link worls
If you believe this guy.....then yes, the bear is certainly just starting. What is a bit interesting in the clip is the way he relates the economic outcomes to demographics. Specifically, he identifies the baby boomers ending their bubble of spending as a problem.
Quite interesting...he reckons deflations is coming to the US in a big way...holding cash won't be so bad afterall if that comes to fruition.
http://pro.dentresearch.com/DOW_IES_EXT/LBNBR921?h=true
Hope the link works
Aust closed on Monday so expect a dull day,
There may be differences in how each country looks at housing,but that is just a sideshow--the real and blatantly obvious difference is that Japan has been going through a long period of mild DEFLATION,unlike NZ. That will kill an economy and it is whats got economists in every country scared.
I have friends (who were teachers)who have gone back to Japan after 12 yrs and found the prices of many items were almost the same as when they were there all those years ago-there has been very little growth--economically speaking its like trying to walk through deep mud.
If the chickens come home to roost,as a result of all the economic ''experiments'' this could happen internationally --Big drops are scarey
but a death of a thousand cuts is a far more damaging result (but if it happens,they have brought it on themselves--or their kids)
I own property and dont particularly want to sell them.It like a retirement hobby,keeping them up to scratch (eventually for the kids) so I hope like hell I am wrong
While property prices in Auckland have soared in the last 20 years, it amazes me that a good chunk of the population and property investors think this can go on forever. When I suggest that things could reverse I often get blank looks as if I'm crazy. I'm presented with a whole load of supply and demand reasons as to why prices could not possibly decline.
The problem with deflation is that once it starts, fear sets in and the willingness to lay down a lot of cash for something is less than it would have been during the good times. It is so easy to see in the sharemarket as bargains at the start of a downtrend suddenly look like a big mistake. We have never really had this problem in Auckland and even during GFC, prices did not fall that much. I think at some point in the future, people will look back in disbelief that house prices were an avg of what? 10 times gross earnings? There will become a time when basic economic fundamentals kick in. Will we see a big crash or a long period of flat prices like seen in Japan? We may see neither and all of the smart property investors may be able to see something that I can't buy into. I'm on the sidelines except for a reasonable amount of shares in retirement sector.
AEP here describes a change in the tide as workers become more sought after... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...f-workers.html
What amuses me is that everyone is talking deflation, mainly due to oil & other commodities being smashed. However apparently inflation was in check when oil quadrupled in price as did many other commodities. The distortion by governments in reporting has lead us to where we are. If you can't trust that stats. what can you trust? We are now living in a world of bubbles, but the most significant is the government debt bubble & it can't go on forever.
I'm not saying that what we are seeing now is it, but at some point the massive debt levels of the likes of Japan, the US and parts of Europe will cause an almighty collapse. Unless of course there is massive reform, however I can't see that happening.
Daytr,in short I can not agree with you.
I am 74 now and if there is one statement I have heard down the decades,it is that we [govts] just can not go on borrowing and all hell will break loose when it has to be paid back. For twenty or thirty years I did believe it but not anymore. The facts as we live it seem to be that numbers are without limit so so can money be. Have the US not raised there debt ceiling about 40 times and another one is to be decided in the next few weeks.
Well if it is to end then something different to the last 100 years will have to surface to change the equation,because as crazy as it sounds the present system works [somehow] so will probably keep on working. Which in facts means that for another 74 years the debt limit will keep on being raised and thousands of comments will be made that this just can not go on,but it will.
Cheers and I would not lose sleep over it.
[QUOTE=Daytr;592449]What amuses me is that everyone is talking deflation, mainly due to oil & other commodities being smashed. However apparently inflation was in check when oil quadrupled in price as did many other commodities. The distortion by governments in reporting has lead us to where we are. If you can't trust that stats. what can you trust? We are now living in a world of bubbles, but the most significant is the government debt bubble & it can't go on forever.
I'm not saying that what we are seeing now is it, but at some point the massive debt levels of the likes of Japan, the US and parts of Europe will cause an almighty collapse. Unless of course there is massive reform, however I can't see that happening.[/QUOTE
I'm beginning to think this whole Black Monday thing has been over-rated. Sure it has been a good time to de-risk your portfolio, however, the slump has also presented some nice buying opportunities. The NZX seems to offer some good value stocks, and the low dollar helps. DYOR.
[QUOTE=Left field;592457]My sentiments too LF,the shorter's haven't created enough FEAR.But then as Hoop says we may be playing Russian Roulette.My take is their is more GREED with low interest rates,commodity prices and exchange rates,some NZ companies should benefit from these factors unless there is an implosion in overseas markets.I get the feeling the bears on the sharetrader threads are getting twitchy but then again I may be complacent.My view is that there needs to be at least a 10% drop in the market to warrant selling & buying back in latter to allow for the cost of comision & mistiming the market
i understand your sentiments.The NZ share market has not had that 10% correction so why get twitchy?--Well because the US and other overseas stock markets have had that 10% correction and we live in a world of globalization.So while it has'nt happened here ,it is a good time to exercise caution.
There is more than one way to do this and it doesnt necessarily mean selling everything--But you should be monitoring if you take it seriously.
In the end NZ is just a tiny little market that couldnt compete with Los Angles county so a stupid decision somewhere in another part of the world can ,unfortunately have a major affect on us.
you can adopt the opposite approach and buy up,hoping for a bargain but at this stage many would say that you are playing longer odds than waiting for things to settle overseas.
IMO everything operates within a framework -so you may have a good share that operates in the NZ share market worth just over 18,000,000---Whats to say you wont end up owning a good share in a NZ share market worth 15,000,000(because of dumb things happening overseas)--My guess is that the SP would have gone down,even though it rates just as good compared to the rest of the share market and is still a good company doing good things.
If bad things happen overseas I think its not realistic to not think at some stage NZ wont play follow the leader (When the US sneezes..and all that...)
This idea works for things like property as well--if the total property market is worth 10-20% less,and your property is still worth the same % of that total (lets say its a good property in a good suburb) its still going to be worth less,because the whole playing field has shifted because to much money has been wiped out of the whole market--even with a housing shortage
Obviously fine not to agree, however if debt had just grown in line with GDP, it probably wouldn't be a problem, however it hasn't its soared in relation to GDP and that's an issue and a relatively new thing. Just look at a few charts of Japanese or US debt to GDP ratios over the last 50 years & the last 10 years stand out. The problem then is that to raise interest rates you also raise the cost of government borrowing and someone like Japan simply cannot afford to do it. The US isn't far away from that either. However US does have luxury of immigration and some growth.
Of course it can go on, however if the system is working there will be credit down grades & there will be less risk premium applied to more risky debt & we are already seeing that in the junk bond market. This is precisely what caused the credit crunch, the under pricing of risk.
Skid there will never be a time when bad things aren't happening either overseas or here either environmentally or economically or both that's the nature of the world we live in. Often times you just have to get amongst it and ride out the storms of life and that includes the market storms. Character is enhanced by learning to endure not so favourable times not by sitting on the sidelines and that applies to all areas of life not just the share market.
Not entirely convinced. There was an opinion piece I was reading in Juno on a flight this morning, in which the analyst was indicating, in time of uncertainty, it's safe to hold cash (many have indicated the same opinion), and investors must realise when to minimise their lose, during uncertainty. You could ride it out, but why suffer further incremental losses if you can minimise the damage and re-enter at a cheaper price once an uptrend has been signaled.
The comment around Character I think is rather subjective. Character could also be enhanced by discipline, by having an appropriate exit strategy, especially during a downturn.
It depends on whether your talking a gamblers character or logical character---If your implying that being a gambler is the way to enhance character then I would have to disagree--you have simply mixed admirable attributes to a ridiculous situation in your post.
I would have thought you would have started to learn by now.
Im always puzzled how you can be carrying such large losses and still expect people to take your advice seriously. Ignoring the market is not a strategy. ( I had to chuckle as to whether you caught the symbolism of your down hill skiing comment):)
Its really quite simple Skid, mistakes made historically can take a long time to work through, you can either sell and realise those big paper losses or continue to hold and see what eventuates on a longer term basis which is the route I have chosen to take. I have learnt a lot but the sowing and reaping principle runs its course, theres no quick fix either way, sure going forward things can be done differently but just because I've chosen to ride things out has nothing to do with not learning. PS-Just off to tune my skis ready for a day on the mountain tomorrow:cool:
Hi Skid
I agree on reviewing the portfolio regularly and sticking to your own "rules regarding when to sell' I have been complacent often.My portfolio value retreated 5 % from its peak but has since recovered to the value it was at its peak.Thinking about volatility and I would suggest the 10 % is too low.I would suggest more like 15%-20% before it is worth trading to allow for the lag before you sell on a dropping share price and lag before buy signals are triggered.I must admit my trading ability is probably crap anyway.Recently after reviewing my portfolio I was ready to sell SKL but luckily hesitated & I traded out of 2 shares that have since rebounded 10%.Luckily into another share that has gone up 15%
Choosing to ride things out is very different than encouraging those on the sidelines to jump in--You have done your damage ,now you are trying to manage losses--your strategy is to ride it out--(do nothing?)--I would suggest it takes more courage to sell and move on (like you did with XRO) (where is it now ,somewhere in the $15 range)but everyone has their strategy--Im not suggesting everyone sell out completely--but to keep a close eye--my post was simply a response to your post-
Your paper losses are the same as real losses,because they represent money you cannot put to a potentially better cause--
Things have been looking overbought (in the US etc.) for a good while now--it has just taken the Chinese devaluation to bring it to the attention of many.
I dont need to be IN the sharemarket--I can sit and learn from the sidelines---I dont need to be in the middle of the action all the time(Ill leave that to the action heroes in the movies)