Half year FY13 results preview
Okay laying it all out there - lets see how right (or wrong) I can be...
in brief:
pax rev 1950 (+4.6% already known from op stats), cargo 158 (+5%), contract 156, ancillary 130 (+15%) = total revenue 2395.
labour 525 (fall), fuel 628 (estimate from fuel stats), maintenance 145 (down), ops 210 (+5%), pax serv 125 (up 3m), s&m 140 (flat), FX losses 20m (could be too low here), other 130 (from 125) = total costs 1922
EBITDRA 472, D&A -185 (up), rent -100 (down), EBIT 187, net interest cost 29m, for NORMALISED PBT of $158.5
This is the key number and compares with guidance of 120-140 PBT and analysts at between $130-145m. So I am a good 15m ahead of the bull on the street.
To finish up NPAT of 111 (can easily be different due to effective tax rate changes) and EPS of 10cps. Hoping for a 5c dividend (as a signal to a market which seems not to love AIR).
Areas of interest: forward demand and yield outlook/deployment of more capacity to USA, ancillary revenue growth, cost control, strategy guidance (more next month), dividend policy.
Final Comments: This is my best estimate based on good reasoning - if it comes out high I won't be too disappointed. There are many big numbers and 10m is almost a rounding error - what is important is the strong revenue growth trend that is in place and the cost control as a result of operational improvement, stable fuel prices, and a strengthening NZD. This sets up for a good FY 13 result.
Hope you enjoyed reading. Hopefully we will be popping champage and watching the SP race upwards over the next few months.:D