Must be $1.50 by next Christmas as that's the figure Beagle and I agreed on yesterday morning and now you have confirmed it, a triune confirmation.
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Yeap, nice sweet 50% gain coming in 2018 as the tidal wave of old folks needing care steps up another gear.
And the rest, $1.82 i reckon,happy cheer all round:t_up:
This is purely not ramping anymore winner....clearly a lot of gurus here see a great current value in OCA....
have a great Christmas people. See u all in new year 2018
No no couts and beagle ......$1.50 by Easter after the half year good un
Christmas - well JT did mention $1.82 just then and he's a foundation shareholder (whatever that is) and usually pretty spot on with his assessments (share market wise but has some weird political views)
Lindauer Summer all round folks, good cheer "pop":D my favourite sound.
So much(ramping)positive talk but not having much impact on the SP.
Step it up a notch people.
I'll chip in. Occupancy rate down to 88% but will rise to 94% within six months. 4c divi to be announced.
I would not pay a great deal of attention to the occupancy rate.
Developing "brown fields" means they have to get rid of the old buildings for the new ones.
In the Oceania PDS:
Was wondering if you guys were using this figure in your forecasts/estimates/models?Quote:
Oceania is forecasting $51.4 million in pro forma Underlying
NPAT in FY2018F, driven by growth in pro forma Underlying
EBITDA in FY2018F, together with prospective pro forma
depreciation and amortisation ($8.7 million), interest
expense ($2.1 million, reflecting a full year with Oceania’s
post-Offer capital structure), and Pro forma Underlying
taxation expense (nil).
Got my little christmas pressie of OCA shares just now ... apologies for pushing the price down to 99c :P
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My conservative estimate is $1.25 in the second week of February. By Friday 21 December of 2018, I hope this would appreciate to $1.55.
If there is a dividend which is already as good as any interest rate in a New Zealand bank and a low buy in price with potential and a good brand I think there can surely be another winner out of OCA.
I like what I read about this company, they seem down to earth. I see the OCA model as working wonders going into the future.
Good buying at around $1.00, 10 cents either side and I think long term you will still have yourself a bargain. My SUM return is currently above 70%, not including dividends etc and I feel there is plenty of room to move there. I see OCA easily performing the same.
Merry festivities to you all - stay safe on the roads
We'll we're back over $1.00, lets see if it lasts this time round :)
Is it speculation that OCA will be declaring a dividend on results date or is there a mention of this somewhere by the company?
From the annual report:
“Oceania Healthcare has established a dividend policy with a targeted pay out ratio of 50% to 60% of annual underlying NPAT. We intend to commence paying dividends during the 2018 nancial year, with an initial interim dividend expected to be paid in February 2018.”
I am getting enthusiastic for the up and coming results... wasn't there a date of 25 January with info?...
Yes i find it weird how many dont go the source for info ,the NZX.
Notice of Half Year Result Announcement
Some say prior to half year results in 16 ish days, this is the last time OCA will be under the $1.10 mark ;)
If it was valued like another care-heavy-but-still-developer retirement stock, Ryman, it would be something like $1.50
How many cents dividend are you picking?
Yep - that's what I'm picking too. I note the move northwards is progressing further today - SP now 107. Right now, there are buyers wanting 70,000+ shares chasing just over 2000 on offer at that price.
Edit: Those 2000 odd have gone - next on offer at 108.
Might even hit TJ's $1.10 in the next day or three.
DISCL - Holding and not selling
3c a divi will be good start.
I bought into this because I liked the ad. Cats are cute. And at that time a few directors were buying up big I think back in Sept/Oct. And all the positive posts in this thread. Noob investor criteria is paying off nicely for this stock.
I was assuming 4cps for the year so approx 2c this coming payment. Happy to be wrong on the upside
http://www.4-traders.com/OCEANIA-HEA...10/financials/
Roughly 4cents per share is what is mentioned here
On a foreward underlying earnings basis SUM and OCA are similarly valued ......but RYM still has that huge premium attached to it
If OCA priced at RYM multiples shareprice be $2.49 (SUM would be $11.95)
Maybe current prices are about right for OCA and SUM (and only RYM the odd one out)
My numbers below
Different balance dates make such a comparison a bit difficult - RYM and OCA are mid year but I have used a Dec 18 forecast for SUM.
RYM the Rolls Royce of the sector and priced like that too. Nothing ever goes wrong with Rolls Royce engines right ? ;)
Just giving a heads-up, I'm probably pulling my underlying 2018 forecast for SUM back to ~ $90-95m, (from an initial preliminary $100m) after my discussion with the CFO the other day, (need to work on my model a bit more) but its still cheap and if OCA can beat their forecast and demonstrate a clear pipeline to future profit growth they are also very cheap, perhaps even cheaper than SUM but then again SUM have a six year history and OCA need to build market trust and credibility over time.
Over the next few years we could see a significant PE rerating of both SUM and OCA whereas surely RYM has run its race for now ?
Just to be a tad pedantic, one Rolls Royce is completely different from the other. The Rolls Royce standard would refer to the cars, now owned by VW although BMW has the brand (rumour had it BMW thought they were buying the RR car company which was bought from underneath them by VW). Rolls Royce Holdings plc makes the aforementioned aero engines that are undergoing a bit of bother at the moment.
Other than that thanks for the heads up.
I think RYM is only just starting. Dabbled its toes in Aussie (and only one region of Aussie) and things are going well. The ability to add more villages there is not tied up by bs council requirements and land restrictions we have here. Also there is much cheaper build cost and labour isnt the issue we have here. I think its still running and and getting into its stride...
Sold out this morning. Well ahead of itself.
Be good if OCA did a 1 for 5 ——- we could then have a 1 SUM = 1 OCA and both 50% of RYM as a guideline.
Taking RYM out of the discussion I reckon the market is saying both OCA and SUM are both valued about right at the moment.
That’s assuming OCA full earnings $54m
any indication of the DIV being able to be reinvested?
well this little puppy seems to be losing its appeal quickly......
RYM currently $10.30 with OCA at $1.03
OCA about right at this price
And Ggcc OCA isn’t a dog .....
Seems like a good opportunity to top up if one thinks next weeks results are going to be smashing :)
Benjamin Graham's greatest advice
"is that the investor should not regard the whims of Mr. Market as a determining factor in the value of the shares the investor owns. He should profit from market folly rather than participate in it. The investor is advised to concentrate on the real life performance of his companies and receiving dividends, rather than be too concerned with Mr. Market's often irrational behavior."
$1.03 is irrational ----super assets, super staff, super outlook, super managers (so far), the prospect of a very super profit and a bank of golden income stream called Aged Care!! Buy Buy Buy for all your worth said Mr Graham when and only when you have determined the value !.
Hello Winner69. I was not actually being enthusiastic, rather just trying to apply Ben Graham logic although he did use intricate mathematical models whereas I look at fundamentals. (quality assets, quality cash flow, quality good name, top quality staff, quality dividends and growth. (The Tidal wave is coming and that cannot be argued)
Now to answer you --when the OCA mangers have built their business to such an extent that that building is reflected by Mr Market placing a $10 value on each share and there has been no evidence of thieving or payment excesses and( as Mr Maersk famously said "every step has been taken to avoid any disaster befalling our company") then I will remove the "so far"
Kind regards Warren b.
Oceania has a pipeline of 1,708 units and care suites of which 63 percent or 1,072 are currently consented, he said. It has a portfolio of 50 sites and while Gasparich said that it had sufficient land for the next seven years of development in New Zealand "Australia would certainly be on our horizon in the longer term."
from thier last announcement..
Managed to hoover up some more at $1.02 today, happy with that.
Hey mate, after reading through this thread I noticed that around the period when OCA listed you were reasonably critical of Oceania's management saying that they needed to cut back on how much money was being spent at the top end on the bigwigs' salaries etc. I also noticed that you seemed to think that it would be difficult for OCA to perform as well as some of the other retirement village operators due to their care focused model. You said it would be difficult for them to get their wages to revenue ratio in order because of this model and that achieving 40% growth in FY18 was unlikely to happen because of this.
I see you are now invested and expecting OCA to do well, so I'm just trying to get some insight into the changes that may have occurred within the company for you to change your view. I realise you have industry knowledge so any info you could share could be pretty helpful :)
Hey Beagle, as I was going back through this thread I read many comments from you stating that you were not interested in investing in OCA until management had proven themselves. Obviously you were concerned because at some point OCA got themselves into a large amount of debt. A lot of this debt has since been wiped off the table but I'm aware that the current CFO has been in that role since 2009, therefore I'm wondering if the risk of OCA getting a large amount of debt is still there. Over the past few months you've purchased OCA a number of times, so you obviously feel the potential rewards outweigh the risks. I'm interested know how you feel management has proven themselves since listing and what has been done to minimise the risk of them getting into financial trouble again?
Yeah mate, perhaps OCA has turned it around. As you can see above I've also posted a question for Beagle, as he has also changed his view over the past few months. He's completely entitled to do so, but I'm wondering if he or Couta can share what has caused them to change their views. This info could possibly be valuable to holders or potential holders.
Too many Super Moons of late and even a Blue Moon coming up
Give the likes of Beagle and others it was them who decided OCA wasn’t a dog after all and drove the price up from the 85 cents it was languishing at to about $1.10 odd.
Without them changing their minds the share price might still be about 90 cents
But due credit to the early adopters / foundation shareholders who reckoned this was the goods at the IPO. They saw through the glossy magazines and nice words.
Hey BoobyM, you seem to be calling out a number of posters who have volunteered their considered thoughts and valuable information to this forum over quite a long time period now. How about some facts and figures from your good self instead of the clicky fingers routine. Remember OCA was floated by a private equity firm and we don't have to go too far back in history to be aware of PE floats, so I for one think the various cautions were warranted. No problem changing that opinion when the facts stack up.
I'm not calling these posters out at all. I agree Couta's and Beagle's knowledge and insights are valuable, hence the reason why I'm asking them. If they want to share the information I've asked about with us then that's great and if they would prefer to keep it to themselves that's fine too. I thought this forum was a place where we can share and discuss information that might be helpful to others. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the matter though.
Of course Beagle and others didn't buy $155m of shares percy - just the market cap went up by that much during that time
If I recall they were disappointed the momentum didn't continue to make the share price go to 120 plus ....that would have created another $60m of market cap or shareholder wealth
There were a lot of others no doubt but they were an enthusiastic lot and keep reminding us that OCA could do no wrong. t_j did a good job in convincing them
Please if you're going to quote really old posts please mention the date, (which was October 2014) LONG before the company listed. The balance sheet was a mess, in fact OCA was a new listing in 2017 that was a VERY VERY long time in the making. The company with its new directors realized they HAD to present a clean and restructured balance sheet and used the IPO proceeds to effect that. To the best of my knowledge this was the only share listing, (there were debt issues last year) in 2017.
Some of the board have a good track record and they'll be the ones approving decisions about gearing level's.
I'm not a big fan of IPO's but this one was listed cheap and the forward PE was and remains well below the sector average. 8.43 cps underlying from memory is the official forecast for FY18 so the forward underlying PE at 12.0 is the cheapest of the sector by quite some margin. I think you'll also find even at $1.02 the company is trading quite close to its NTA if all properties were revalued as at 31 December 2017. I hear whispers that their care standards are second to none, even not second to Ryman ! Further, they've made on or two good looking acquisitions since listing but this is very much still a case of, lets see how they go.
There's an element of risk here for sure, no question whatsoever as they're a relatively new listing but the real estate market has been sound this last year, they are converting a LOT of care rooms into the ORA model and as mentioned they have a superb reputation with their care services. The market per se is pretty stretched and its very hard to find value. The value of this share at present has to be measured in that context. I started buying just after the IPO in the low 80 cent range, (as a way of eliminating IPO price risk). To be perfectly honest there is an element of this being a bit of a punt, nobody really knows how they're going to go as compared to forecast but in my view given market dynamics since they listed there's probably just as much chance of beating FY18's forecast as missing it. Beating the FY17 forecast doesn't count for much given the very close proximity of the listing date to the FY17 report date but a beat is a beat nonetheless so must count for a little bit. My base case assumption for 2017 at the start of the year was for nil increase in house prices for Auckland, (about right) and 3% throughout the rest of the country, was about 6.5% if I remember correctly the article containing REINZ data the other day. This augers well for FY18's results.
T.J. if you're going to pour scorn on others posts at least have respect to get your timeframe and facts correct. I looked at their 2014 balance sheet as represented on the companies office website and it was an absolute mess in 2014.
Interesting you have mentioned your reference to 2014 documents, which I think was made after this above post, and possibly even after the IPO prospectus (But I could be wrong with this second part).
I did mention ( back in March 2017) that it was likely this 'messy' balance sheet would magically improve, And the IPO documents following these page 3 comments showed this.
You failed to mention that you actually continued to 'dog' oca after the prospectus was issued (showing debt being cleaned up) such as claiming a 40% uplift was doubtful (or something along these lines).
Anyhow, rather than dwelling on the past (which has certainly come back to bite some people on this thread big time), let us all look forward to the future.
Although it helps to 'get it right' and tell the full story when setting the past straight
We all tend to comment on things as we see them at any given point of time, there is of course nothing wrong with doing this whether others agree or not. Sometimes being on the inside of the industry, you get info which can influence your opinion of a company in ways other than simply looking at balance sheet items. OCA since my initial comments have cleaned up their balance sheet, reviewed and changed their management structure, increased their development pipeline and focus, as well as being inovative by offering care suites with a licence to occupy etc. These changes have convinced me that OCA is a good value share to buy with plenty of upside over the next few years.
Good post. I am sure we can all agree that as time passes with new IPO's we can all improve our understanding of a freshly listed company and its prospects. For what its worth T.J. I take a deeply skeptical view of all IPO's prospectus forecasts. Its held me in very good stead with avoiding losses on listings in recent years like MPG and Tegal.
Anyone can forecast anything they like...I once attended a function where a senior business banking manager of 40 years experience with SME's told me he'd never seen a set of forecasts that was worth the paper it was printed on...how that's for skepticism, even more deeply cynical and wary that this old hound !
I think he'd "had a few" so was probably exaggerating for effect but nonetheless his point is well made. A very healthy dose of skepticism is warranted for any company without a long track record to assure investors otherwise.
Yes, a lot of truth in that observation, Beagle, and we certainly need to treat IPO's "birthed" by private equity with a good deal of caution. But OCA came to market with some proven people on the board - I couldn't see Elizabeth Coutts or Alan Isaac risking their reputations on a dud listing - and OCA was well past the "Small and Medium Enterprise" stage at this point.
Disc: Holding since the IPO.
:)
Agreed. Directors bought on market fairly aggressively after the IPO listing right up to and including about the current level if I remember correctly which is something I value as a good indication of future prospects. Nothing like a healthy amount of your own skin in the game to motivate one :)
Weren't Macquarie keen to get $1.04 for the IPO but had to settle for 79 cents
Be interesting what the share price would be today if it had floated at $1.04
Macquarie can hock their shares after the full year announcement sometime in July ....but things going so well and the world looking so rosy they wouldn't even be contemplating that wuld they
Mr Market has already priced this in I reckon (aka the "dumping" factor), otherwise share price would be well above $1.10 by now I'm sure. Macquarie have been involved in OCA for nearly a decade I think (unlike many PE listings which are usually a few years tops), what is another 2,3 or 4 years of steady, solid share price growth and dividend? Probably in no rush to sell, or will do what Forsyth did with MET prior to OCA listing - sell it (Some or all of their holding) at a small, if any, discount to market price in a block trade.
Oceania F18 guidance is Underlying EBITDA of $62.2m (confirmed at ASM) and Underlying NPAT of $51.4m
Talk on the street (loud Koru Lounge conversation actually) is that come the half year announcement (if not before) they will raise the Underlying NPAT guidance to just under $60m, but fully expecting it be more by year end.
If you can’t buy shares in Rocket Lab then OCA is the next best thing
are you kidding me !?? lol
Attachment 9429
2 days trading till the result. Wonder what the sp would be this wed?....anyone?
Now that’s some proper ramping :)
Sorry for not responding earlier, I'm currently working 70 hours a week but thank you to Beagle and Couta for your responses outlining why you've had a change of heart over the past six months or so.
I agree that the market is pretty stretched so finding value is not exactly easy, although OCA might be one that has some upside if they meet or exceed their goals. Without years behind them of doing what they see they will do, it's always going to be a bit of a punt. Time will tell but so far they give the impression that they're on target. I feel that there's still some uncertainty about whether OCA can deliver and the market has priced it at a PE much lower than its peers because it hasn't earned the trust the likes of Ryman obviously has with its lofty PE. Also Macquarie still owns the majority and they've got the green light to selldown after the full year results come out in July. I'm not sure but perhaps this has capped the share price a bit as well. Not to mention the general uncertainty in the retirement sector with the change of government and the news of slowing house prices.
Anyway the picture will get a bit clearer on Thursday. Good luck to those that hold. I think you'll probably do quite well, certainly if the directors buying all the way up to 98 cents is anything to go by :)
Over $1.10 today in the rush to get in before the exciting news tomorrow
Better top upbig time tj ...never be this cheap again
Good post. Probably worth noting that the NZX50 is up 8% since directors were buying hundreds of thousands back in August 2017 at 98 cents so on a market adjusted basis several directors were buying in significant volume at what's amounts to effectively about the current level. They would of course be unable to buy at present due to restricted persons trading policy immediately before an announcement.