Thanks Emearg
SP up again this morning and sellers disappearing faster than a sore throat when you're on the k12
I think we might have reached a tipping point. She's up and off!
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Thanks Emearg
SP up again this morning and sellers disappearing faster than a sore throat when you're on the k12
I think we might have reached a tipping point. She's up and off!
Yeah, this really is starting to look like it just might be the real thing.
The whole of the next year could be pretty exciting stuff - a lot of people trying to get a seat at the same time as Blis still has a lot of potential news to hand out. Great fun for those with seats already? Let's hope so.
At the AGM update Barry said they had six new retail products in the US market. At that time I was only aware of four.
Barry anticipated they would have an additional six to ten new retail products by the end of the financial year. Currently I am aware of a total of eleven meaning they only have to launch one more in the next six months to meet the low end of their target.
The new products contain K12 or M18 or both.
I have looked at the products to try to quantify how much of the Blis probiotics are in each product on a per pill basis. Some of the products don't break it down by each included probiotic while some measure in milligrams or viable cells or both.
Here are the products I am aware of. Please let me know if I have missed any...
Bio-Genesis Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables - K12 - 6 mg
BioGuard - K12 - 20 mg - 1 billion viable cells
LEF Advanced Oral Hygiene - K12 - 575 million viable cells
Childrens Chewable Inner Ear - K12 - 10 mg - 1 billion viable cells
Adults Ear, Nose & Throat - K12 - 20 mg - 2 billion viable cells
Tooth Fairy - M18 - 10 mg - 1 billion viable cells
Ultra Probiotic - K12 - unknown quantity but product has 3 probiotics totalling 50 mg
Epoca - K12 - unknown quantity
Solary Oral Flora - K12 - unknown quantity
Whole Food Total Body Cleanse - K12 & M18 - unknown quantity but product has 13 probiotics totalling 2 mg (28 million viable cells)
Ultra Probiotic - K12 & M18 - unknown quantities but product has 13 probiotics totalling 120 mg
As you will note the quantities vary hugely. Having a bottle of the NZ product Throat Guard Daily on hand I note it contains 100 million viable cells where as some of the other products contain 1 - 2 billion viable cells. It may be that some of the other products are better value for NZ consumers seeking a larger dose of the probiotic?
It is good to see the new BioGuard product that is being launched by Costco at the moment contains a large quantity of K12.
It is puzzling to see that one product states their 20mg of K12 contains 1 billion viable cells where as another products 20mg contains 2 billion viable cells. I wonder what the explanation is?
Nice one! :-)
Bids at 12 cents and offers at 15 cents. It must have been many many years since there was a such a split in the bids and offers for BLT.
It would be good to see this company do well internationally. Goodness knows we need a few more success stories. With the large holders down south we should be able to keep the company in NZ hands until at least 2012 before someone swoops in and bags themselves a bargain...
Your comments on the actual content of each product are made more complex by the price they sell at. Ultra Probiotic is listed on Amazon for $50 , for example, while Animal Parade Inner Ear is listed at $16.
It seems Costco are selling Bioguard online after all:
http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product...rodid=11496779
The share price enquiry yesterday got the response, "We can confirm that there is no major transaction to disclose. All matters relating to progress with sale of products were reported at the AGM on 31 July 2009, and the presentation was published on NZX website." Fair comment, as the share price started going up on that date and has not stopped going up since really. I guess a share price enquiry just gives a company a public opportunity to burst any speculation that there is something new going on in the background.
I'm not surprised Simla for two main reasons. 1) If they are going to bother setting up a website telling potential customers all about the product why wouldn't they offer it on their online purchasing site? They obviously have the infrastructure to cope with selling the product online! 2) They said you would be able to buy it online i.e. on the BioGuard site it states you can buy it on Costco.com. If it was a shop only product it would have said buy it at Costco, but this would have been harder to manage as they are only trialling it in some Costco stores.
BioGuard wasn't to be found on their site yesterday evening so this is an overnight development.
It is unfortunate that Costco.com don't ship internationally (from what I can see) as I would like to buy some of the BioGuard. It strikes me as much better value for money than the ThroatGuard Daily product that I am currently taking. It has ten times the probiotic, two and a half times the number of tablets, and only costs approximately 50% more if/when landed in NZ.
Yesterdays share price enquiry suggested to me that the half year results might come earlier this year? Mr Kumar started at some during the 2009 financial year so perhaps he wasn't on board to prepare last years first half financials? This year with him they might get them out earlier?
Emearg, maybe the probiotic has a wholesale price structure related to weight. There must be a price structure related to something. Someone has decided on these different amounts for some reason. But whether this matters to consumers probably depends on how many is "enough" to protect the mouth anyway, and also how fast they replicate.
The notes on the slide where this was mentioned states, "In June BLIS signed an option agreement with a global consumer Co. receiving funding of more than USD100K. This relationship is currently subject to confidentiality provisions and so the identity of the company cannot be revealed at this stage."
Having reviewed the way this was phrased, and the tense used in the press release I revised my half year estimate a couple of weeks ago as it sounds like the money has been paid to Blis.
So Simla, you were estimating 500k US sales a few months back but I gather you are thinking that is on the low side now? Do you have a new estimate?
Personally I am being cautious about the US sales revenues as Barry has made it clear that they will take time to build. I am holding my estimate at 250k but feel I am probably being conservative...
Emearg, there isn't the slightest way of knowing what sales are going to be, of course, until we're actually told. But, yes, I am optimistic.
I start at the known fact that NZ sales have responded well to marketing efforts, which we got told in July - " NZ retail sales have more than doubled, compared to the same period in 2008" (Presentation, 31 Jul). That tells us that this stuff will sell if you put in the effort. We must assume the US manufacturers are putting in the effort.
Then we were told, "not only developing new customers in the US, but also in obtaining repeat business from its existing customers" (Press Release, 31 Jul). Well, that would suggest some repeat business should be expected. Now, that reporting period was to March, during which Blis had only been on the US market for a few months, which raises the possibility of repeat business being worthwhile in a longer period of 6 months, and with momentum building perhaps.
Also, we were told, " US sales still in the “building phase” - process takes 1-1.5 yrs." (Presentation). Well, we're only half way through that. But what are we expecting to be the end point? If sales now are only say $200k, and we are maybe half way to reasonable volumes, are we then only expecting final volumes of $400k from the US? Well, we do not know of course, but I imagine we're hoping for somewhat better than that.
And then there are the new customers. For a starter, M18 has rolled out. Then there have been other products. And then there has been the Bioguard for a large retailer, which must surely have required at least a noticeable first order.
Then, too, " Have periods of positive cash flow - yet to break-even each month." (Presentation). As I have said before, my instinct would be to read that as cash covering all outgoings, even the ones being capitalised. If so, that would be a healthy cash flow.
Finally, I add the extra activity by Nature's Plus. It seems hard to believe they would have rolled out the extra products if the first were not doing okay - although possibly they were precommitted, and equally possibly it didn't have a high marginal cost so they weren't risking much.
In summary: (a) there has been more marketing; (b) volume of sales should have increased as a natural process; (c) new products have been added. Not a bad list.
But you ask about US sales, to which I would ask, why not Asia? We know that Epoca is on the market, and may have created noticeable sales already. But also we were told, "an Asia-wide business development strategy is in place and follows a similar commercial template as that used for North America." Well, the US one bore fruit fairly quickly, perhaps things have happened in Asia too. Also, we were told, "Achieve positive cash flow by: Focusing on sales in Nth America and Asia, Growing NZ and Australian sales" (Presentation). Notice that Asia was in there, so who knows?
But it's all just a guess. And we do not know the possible added cost of any possible gains. Expenses may have been incurred, and we must assume the preferences are going to be a noticeable cost, too. Perhaps we will hear of increased income AND increased expenses, and yet again: well, not this time, folks! But my gut instinct is still for a profit of some sort finally.
I recall reading in one of the reports or presentations recently that the issue costs were going to be 250k. No doubt that includes the 150k the underwriters got. 160k was accounted for in the last financial year leaving perhaps 90k for the first half...
Interesting that the bidding pressure has dropped away significantly since the price enquiry. So, either people have got cold feet, or someone actually was chasing a rumour. A text book case of, buy on the rumour, sell on the facts?
The irony is that no rumour is necessary, since Blis has already put a ton of good news on the table. The expectation is definitely mounting for Blis to turn a profit, and the price would be dampened if that yet again eluded us, which of course is possible. But even so, there are any number of news announcements that Blis could make that would still be strongly welcomed.
I'm not sure about that? Several contributors on here are expecting a profit but is the market in general? Perhaps the market focus is more on achieving positive cash flow? That would be more likely as Barry has made it clear that is what he is focussing on.
Or perhaps many in the market will be focusing more on significantly larger revenues than last year?
Impossible to say, Emearg. I imagine most people are on the fence on this one. Which is where we are all sitting, too. But I only said "mounting", which is probably fair, given all the noise coming out of the kitchen these days.
Probably the most interesting piece of news we can hope to get in a few weeks is how it has gone down at Costco. If well, then the future is bright. But if not, the future will be more work.
Yes that will be interesting (although I wonder if we will hear anything as the time frame is very tight?) but for me the the most interesting piece of news I am looking for is what progress has been made on "protecting the Blis probiotic organism across a wider range of product applications and harsh physical conditions such as toothpaste and functional beverages"
To me, inclusion in pills is just the tip of the iceberg. Getting the probiotics into a wide range of everyday foods bought by everyday people is where the real potential lies...
We know they can do it with yoghurt so it would be great to see an annoucement around a yoghurt based product some time soon! Now they can sell it in NZ and Aussi I am sure Barry is busy working with his old dairy contacts to get a producer on board.
I have looked at all the labels in my local supermarket and there are plenty with probiotics but none with Blis probiotics.
PS, I appreciate the dialog Simla. It is good to discuss these things with others that have similar but quite different views! Cheers
Ditto, Emearg.
Yes, this food and drink thing is fascinating. Did you see the link I had a few pages back to Nestle Boost Kid Essentials drink? Talk about potential sales! And that article yesterday (thanks, Klink, forgot to say at the time - your first post I see, welcome) said, "Probiotic dairy products are expected to command the highest market share among all the probiotic foodstuffs accounting for almost 70% in the year 2009 and reach a market size of almost $24 billion by the end of 2014".
As you say, Blis could be in that sort of thing here in NZ & Aus now. Two barriers: firstly, it is okay for yoghurt, but not milk. Well, again, Klink's article said, "the market is expected to grow at an astounding rate of almost 14% in the same period driven by the large scale acceptance of - the probiotic yogurts in spoonable single serve packs, probiotic cultured drinks in single shot packaging form and probiotic dietary supplements" - nothing to stop single spoonable serve yoghurts here except market acceptance, and only GRAS in the US which may be due soon. Or secondly, it needs protection to get into liquids. Well, was ViaShield in Nature's Plus Ultra Probiotics possibly the thing they went looking for? And anyway, the Nestle product uses the probiotic straw, which presumably is an option. Look at this: http://www.downthelane.com/store/pro...tic-straw.html , which would seem usable now at a price perhaps, for example.
So, Costco would be a great indication of whether people are willing to buy this type of product in the US, but the food and drink thing is a whole new ballgame.
Actually, Emearg, there is another announcement they could make that would be pretty interesting: toothpaste.
We know M18 is out there now, and we know they are looking for help in making it stable in toothpaste (Press release July 09: "Additionally, in June 2009 the company embarked on a significant development project with a highly regarded US product research and development organisation to better protect the BLIS probiotic organism across a wider range of product applications and harsh physical conditions such as toothpaste and functional beverages.") M18 plus K12 in a toothpaste might sell pretty well.
Apologies if someone has posted this before.
Blis on 60 Minutes!
http://www.therabreath.com/about/blis_60minutes.asp
5 - 6 years ago.
You have a good memory BF.
You're probably like a lot of us long suffering shareholders and hoping that at last Blis is on the right track.However still a way to go yet.Once bitten.....
I sold out a while back and put the money into PEB but I still keep an eye on BLT.If things start to turn good I may look at getting back in at some point.But I will have to be pretty certain it's for real.
Good interest in the preference shares today. 6,000 sold around the $3 mark. Somebody trying to lock in the dividend payment?
Or perhaps the preference shares are looking more attractive as there is a chance the dividends won't be paid in cash but instead will be paid in shares in three years time? Am I right in thinking that option gets more and more attractive as the price of the preference shares increases?
I (well Google alerts really) found another couple of new products.
Ear Nose and Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-e...+Throat+Shield
Probiotic Plus
http://www.ultraprobioticsplus.com/
The first one similar to Nature's Plus Ear Nose and Throat Shield. This version contains other ingredients and half the K12 (it contains 10 mg or 1 billion cells). It is also half the price. I have ordered 3 units. That is 150 days worth for $43 NZ. Much cheaper than the Throat Guard I have been buying.
Hey, that's good. I guess your optimism for the half years results just crept up a notch?
This is the VegLife one:
http://www.nutradeal.com/shared_images/076280346039.jpg
The Ultraprobiotics Plus site didn't seem to have a product image yet.
New products turning up every week or three certainly won't be hurting revenues!
It is excellent to see Frutatrom and Blis make such rapid progress selling the ingredient into this market. The pill makers are showing great enthusiam for getting the probiotics into new products in quick time. I wonder how many unique manufacturers exist and how many brands they operate? I am also wondering how many pill products will be launched containing K12 and/or M18 before the market is saturated and how long it will take to reach that point?
Yes, if they get to the point where it can be included in toothpaste then that would be significant. According to a report by Global Industry Analysts, Inc the global toothpaste market is to reach US $12.7 billion by 2012. Being included in even a tenth of a one percent of all toothpaste sold would significantly increase revenues for Blis...
The potential with beverages is too big for my little brain to cope with at this point. But then again, if they can't complete the technical work successfully my brain won't have to! That said, they have managed to achieve several of their technical challenges recently which gives me confidence e.g. no longer the need for the mouthwash before use and they have figured out how to include K12 in yoghurt.
The next few years will be interesting for Blis me thinks...
Hi Barney. I'm still holding plenty and hoping to at least come out even in the end. Things are definitely on the up and up. Barry has made a real difference - it's a pity he wasn't in the picture a few years earlier, before BLIS burnt through all their cash. I used to post a lot on this thread as you will remember, but the enthusiasm waned (along with the share price). Fortunately you will observe, however, a new bunch of keen BLIS fans have picked up the baton. I hope your non-BLIS investments are working out for you. BF.
Agree with you, Bobby, about market saturation. Also, we have to remember that the US is not usually a national market, but a whole collection of markets, so who knows what saturation means there.
On the possible news front, there are two other big ones in the air. Europe has been looked at for a while, and we might hear some more. But also India. It is a huge market that Blis have mentioned in passing a bit, suggesting that it is in their sights. And obviously more news on China would also be good, but they were saying that might be a while.
By the way, http://www.vitaglo.com/veglife.html suggests that VegLife (the new product) is connected with Solaray, who already sell Blis. As for Nature's Plus, that might suggest that Solaray have already been getting some sales with their first product if they have committed to another. You can't help thinking Solaray and LEF must be looking at M18, too.
I've been waiting for some on-line user reviews. Finally, here's one for Animal Parade Inner Ear. It gives five stars out of five. "I bought these for my son who gets earaches sometimes..and they seem to really work and keep them away."
http://www.vitacost.com/Natures-Plus...ProductReviews
It's only a single review, but better to open with a good review than a bad one.
Announcement this morning confirms much of what we have been discussing. Sounds promising in terms of the half year results and is also confirming the new range of products for the new 1st half year.
A positive annoucement but in my opinion there are two areas that are rather understated...
Barry mentions one product containing M18 and yet we know of at least three. To be fair though, only once contains a lot of the M18 and is the primary ingredient.
Barry mentions they will launch six new products by year end, and yet they have already launched seven since that target was set. At least Barry knows he isn't promising something he can't deliver! Back in July the high end of the range was ten new products. By my count they only have three to go now and five and a half months left and momentum has been building. I should imagine this target will be exceeded...
It is excellent to see a patent in Europe for M18/MIA is on it's way. That means they are well protected in NZ, Aussi, the USA and now Europe.
It is fantastic to see a patent for Micrococcus luteus in Europe is on it's way. That means they are protected in NZ and Europe. I have been wondering over the last month or so if we will have a launch of this probiotic sprung on us out of nowhere like M18 was. I think it will all depend on how they can go about including the probiotic in a skin composition product.
It is excellent to hear that their GRAS application is going well. I suspect Frutatrom are chomping at the bit to be able to market K12 as an ingredient. It would really open up a much larger market for them!
And it is excellent to see the December 2009 timeframe for Canada hasn't changed.
That announcement was a press release. It is already on scoop and nbr, for example.
You know, I wonder if it isn't time to start pondering on how fast Blis sales may grow. We did just get more news, after all.
The half year results will obviously help on that one. As Blis opened in in the US about a year ago now, we may get an idea of whether sales are inching up or instead gaining quite fast acceptance. The full year results will obviously help even more, since it is still early days in the US. Costco may be of significance by then, too.
But, if Blis opens in twice as many markets, or markets with twice the size, shouldn't you anyway expect sales to grow twice as fast regardless?
Yes, that one is as long as a piece of string.
But we know that Blis keeps opening in new products, and the number is surprisingly large now. Each manufacturer presumably unlocks a new population, and Blis have had a few of those. And each new product from those manufacturers should also unlock new sales, or the manufacturer would not bother to add new product - and there've been a number of new products from existing manufacturers now.
Then, on top of that, we know that Blis has opened in Japan - again, early days. And we've seen it in Taiwan to a degree. We know they are seeking regulatory approval in a number of countries, which will take time, but presumably one or two of them will come through in a bit. Canada is about to be one of them apparently. Asia and Europe are being actively worked on generally anyway. Adding new countries also must increase sales.
And then we have new products as well. Tooth Fairy is already out. Presumably other M18 products are in the pipeline. We know they are looking at toothpaste. We know they are looking at GRAS, and effectively already have that in NZ and Australia, opening the door to yoghurt, chocolate milks perhaps, and other foods. We presume they are looking at the acne thing, perhaps. And the July press release referred to, " specific work over coming months with a view to eventually bringing further BLIS probiotic products to the retail market in specific applications."
New manufacturers, new stock units, new countries, new products. There's a lot of energy coming out of Dunedin. Food for thought?
On the other hand, Blis has yet to declare any profit ever, so ... yes, this is very much just wondering at this stage. Still, the logic would seem to be there, wouldn't it?
Yeah, very hard to judge the length of that string...
The market reacted strongly to the news today...up 22.7%
What interested me is that we (readers of this thread) already knew most of what was announced today. The only really new stuff was about patents. It seems to me that readers of this thread might be considered well informed about the progress of Blis, and it's potential.
We all seem to be expecting much improved revenues for the half year and some are thinking there may even be a small profit.
Based on todays reaction I suspect the market reaction to the half year results (assuming they are pretty good) will be very positive and the share price will rally strongly.
I get the feeling the fact that Blis is making good progress and has obviously turned a corner is pretty much unknown to most people.
Looking at the BLTPA depth I note that there are 21,580 for sale at $3. That is an excellent price compared to the ordinary shares. Taking the dividend into account that equates to 10.8 cents per ordinary when converted. An excellent way to add half a million ordinary's to your portfolio (following conversion) if you have a spare 65k :-)
One of Clint Eastwoods characters had a good line that fits the scenario...
The ODT has covered yesterday's announcement:
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/7...eaks-us-market
Text below for your convenience...
Blis breaks into US market
Dunedin-based Blis Technologies yesterday revealed that United States retail chain Costco is undertaking a 50-store commercial trial of the Blis K12 probiotic product.
Costco would review the trial early next month.
If the trial was successful, the chain would do a nationwide launch of the product throughout its more than 400 stores, Blis chief executive Barry Richardson said in an interview.
"We will be doing everything possible to ensure they are happy with it. This is exciting news. It is good to see the evolution of these products. It is a good position for Blis to be in."
Blis develops and manufacturers products and ingredients for the oral healthcare market in New Zealand, Asia, Europe and the US.
The product being trialled by Costco, regarded as the fifth largest US retailer, was being sold under the brand name BioGuard.
It was developed for the US market by the publicly listed dietary supplement manufacturer Imagenetix Inc, to provide around-the-clock natural protection of the ear, nose and throat.
Dr Richardson said Imagenetix selected Blis K12 for its BioGuard because it met the high standards for both scientific support and credibility as well as being a "truly novel ingredient".
Blis provided Imagenetix with bags of stabilised bacteria which was used in the manufacture of BioGuard.
BioGuard was being sold in the dietary supplement section of Costco and was granted the status of FSA (flexible spending account).
FSA was set up by the US Government to enable US employers to provide a tax deductable and discretionary spending account for their employees to then purchase specific healthcare products and services of their own choosing.
"This is further evidence that the market strategy of focusing on the US dietary supplement market is working well for us.
"We chose to leverage our experience and knowledge from the New Zealand retail market over the past five years to assist our client companies in the US to succeed in bringing new retail products to the market."
Blis had become the recognised expert in the oral healthcare segment of the dietary supplements market, he said.
Asked to rate the Costco trial among the achievements of Blis, Dr Richardson said it was one of the big deals but there were several pending.
"The first big one was Nestle. This is the second one, and it is quite significant. With more than 400 stores in the US, they will have throughput we need to meet."
In addition to the Costco trial, US dietary supplement manufacturer Nature's Plus had successfully launched its first Blis M18 product called "Tooth Fairy", he said.
Blis M18 was an advanced oral-care probiotic which was specifically developed for the prevention of tooth decay.
Tooth Fairy was aimed at the children's oral care segment of the market and was launched in the US to coincide with the start of the new school year in early September.
Blis, and its global distribution partner Frutarom, continued to push business development activities in Asia and had just launched the first retail product in Japan to contain Blis K12.
The product, called EPOCA, was sold through the Japanese Health products distributor ISK Corporation.
Two new notices of intention to grant a patent had been received by the company from the European Patent Office, Dr Richardson said.
One notice related to Blis M18 and the associated prevention of tooth decay.
The other related to a probiotic that was still at an early state of development, but had shown to have promising antibacterial effects on skin.
Blis would announce its half-year earnings, for the six months ended September 30, late next month.
Do you care to speculate as to the reasons why it was released?
I have a few ideas and as will become clear as you read them it just pure speculation on my part.
1) Perhaps Barry and/or the board are incentivised based on the shareprice? A rising shareprice equals a good half year bonus?
2) Barry and the board own shares so will be happy to spread a bit of good news to ramp the price so they feel a bit richer on paper.
3) The publicity helps put them on the map. They are playing with the big boys so can be taken more seriously than a few years ago. Who knows if a sale or two might occur because of the press release?
4) The underwriters have an option to buy another million preference shares. Ramping the share price will make taking up their option much more of a no brainer which will equal another million bucks in the bank for Blis.
5) They are just doing their job and keeping the market informed.
The last two are the most likely in my opinion.
Option 5
After the share price enquiry they would not like to be seen holding back information.
Also they must be starting work on the end of year accounts. You would not want to share price to rise to fast only for investers to be disapointed and have a sharp share price drop after the accounts are released.
From memory they had a year to take them up so they expire in May(??) 2010. If they were going to take them up I would think they would want to buy them before the November 09 dividend payment but as I don't know there financial situation who knows if they can come up with the cash. If there was the liquidity in the preference shares they would be better off selling 333,333 at $3 to finance the million they have rights to. Easy money as things currently stand...
Well, that's not the most positive list of reasons I've ever seen. Have you thought of the possibility that it is simply a good sign! Personally, I sense a disturbance in The Force...
As for the option: has anyone considered what a company that might be enjoying good cash flow and already had some money left over from a rights issue might do when also in receipt of $1m payment for an option? Next year might prove interesting.
But there you are. Apparently I can't stop being optimistic. Still, it was a pretty upbeat news release, whichever way you look at it.
They probably felt they had to because of reason 5. Reason 3 is a good sign. Is good PR. This is something they don't do enough of in my opinion.
What kind of disturbance?
He said, "I sense a disturbance in The Force," before things started to get dramatic.
This doesn't sound like it is trying to dampen expectations: "it was one of the big deals but there were several pending ... With more than 400 stores in the US, they will have throughput we need to meet"
If it were me, I would only release good news a few weeks before it was due if I had even better news to release later.
However, I have no basis to say that is the case here. They may just be communicating more openly.
(And, importantly, Funguspudding, is it "Blis' announcement" or "Blis's announcement"? They both look wrong to me, even though I have been know to read Trollope.)
Thanks, Funguspudding. I was merely referring to your participation in our spelling and grammar contest of a few months ago, so I thought you would know. 'Twas I that used it, and I stand corrected.
Thanks Simla. I'm not sure which one you used, but while Blis's is correct, some authorities accept Blis' announcement. Theory being too many letter S's are confusing. So you'll sometimes see Julius' sandals, or Jesus' robes. It's not standard, and I wouldn't use it, but it would be a brave man who said it was wrong.
:D Anyway Blis's, Blis', or the price of Blis shares is more important. :D
Glad to hear they're both in use. Current usage is my deliberate guiding principal for written English, but I was almost considering changing back to the formal rules after that uncertainty. The reason I've asked is because "Blis's" obviously comes up often on this group!
Yes, Blis's future remains the issue. It will be interesting to see what happens to the share price, as it rose for several weeks after the last press release. The question though is, what price is going too far? A while ago, I thought 10 cents was pretty fully priced. But that last announcement takes away my confidence on that, and instead leaves me with no particular idea at all, either up or down on that price.
Reason 6) BLT just got issued with a Please Explain from NZX regarding the recent share price jump for BLT and BLTPA - mebbe the results are so good that they want to avoid a repeat...
I'm rather with Cannibal on this one. It wasn't that they said stuff we hadn't heard - although only if you had kept up with the Blis chat group - but that the language was pretty positive: "more than 400 stores", "one of the big deals". Reason 6 is definitely what I've been wondering about.
But what has been revealed that was't announced before in this earlier press release?
http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file...%202009%20.pdf
The tone is different. Costco are bringing the evaluation forward to one month after only 2 weeks of a 3 months trial. Blis seem to be giving us a big hint that Costco is going pretty well. And taking time out to mention M18 again might also suggest they're pretty pleased with where that is going too.
Yes, it can all be read as not that different. Except for the point of why they took time out to say this now.
And, yes, it could mean many things, and does not have to be read as particularly good news. As usual, we will find out in good time, and not before.
I think Simla is correct and this can only be seen as good news. If Costco are bringing the evaluation forward is most probably because of good sales and they want to get this from all 400 stores ASAP.
Personally it is hard not to be optimistic, it really looks like all the potential has a chance to realised.
The things that are new are:
1) A M18 product has been launched.
2) A K12 product has been launched in Japan.
3) The trial is with Costco and the product is branded Bioguard and has been manufactured by Imagenetix.
4) Bioguard has FSA eligibility.
5) Two new patents are on their way.
We knew the first four, but the market as a whole didn't.
Nice to hear that Q24 has 'promising antibacterial effects on skin'. Nothing like a natural way to take care of underarm smellness issues. Anti acne has been mentioned previously hasn't it?
Hi Guys, I just could not help myself (but there is not much to do on a rainy Sunday).
I have always made working assumptions of what kind of potential revenue could be achieved in the USA. Based on current NZ sales of approx $400Kp/a and a population of 4M people. I calculate 10 cents of revenue per head of population has been achieved (with very little marketing).
USA population of 307M x 10 cents = $30m. Off course this is a bit rich considering you need the products and distribution need to be in place.
But that being said, the data below from Costco states they have 56m cardholders. So 56m x .10 = $5.6m which could be a reasonable working assumption. As you get into the detail you could debate that we are not comparing like with like but you could also argue US$ vs NZ$ and also the fact that BLT costs are significantly lower with Costco doing all the marketing.
But all that being said, it is not unreasonable to assume potential sales through Costco alone of $2M - $5.6M p/a is possible? So I hope the 40 store trial is successful.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....ol-homeprofile
Number of warehouses: 560(as of 09/18/09)
Areas of operation: 407 locations in 40 U.S. States & Puerto Rico;
77 locations in nine Canadian provinces;
21 locations in the United Kingdom;
6 locations in Taiwan;
7 locations in Korea;
9 locations in Japan;
1 location in Australia;
32 locations in 18 Mexican states
Membership Data (as of 8/30/09): 56.0 million cardholders
30.6 million households
21.5 million Gold Star
5.7 million Business
3.4 million Business add ons
Warehouse sizes: 73,000 to 205,000 square feet
(average 142,000 square feet)
Annual revenues
(FY09 - Ended 8/30/09): $71.4 billion
Here's an unusual page in Japan. This is a six-pack of Epoca for 31,500 yen, which Google tells me is NZ$468. They also sells it in singles and threes.
http://www.takachanmarket.com/produc...oduct_id=17325
It beats me, guessing the implications of selling it $468 worth at a time!
Maybe that Japanese site targets small retailers as well.
The article posted earlier in the ODT fleshes out last weeks announcement and certainly has a feel of optimism about it. Normally I would take that with a grain of salt, but Barry's style has been understated in the past, probably to the detriment of the sp. If he's sounding upbeat (and he is) it has to be a nod in the right direction.
It seems you can buy Epoca in 1, 3, 6 and 12 month supplies in Japan. I wonder if this is a sign of what customers are asking for? The population of Japan is 130m, and it seems likely there has been at least some definite marketing from the outset. At the price it is selling at, Japanese sales may not be trivial for the half year?
http://www.regedebeaute.com/4.html
Just over $86,000 in head and PA shares traded today which must be one of the larger turn over days. It is good to see strong buying at the current share price, but I do wonder why people buy the head share when the PA share is better value.
Many of the buyers of the ordinary shares today were effectively paying 3.2 cents per share more than they had to assuming they were willing to hang on to them for three years to receive all the dividend payments.
I can't think of any good reason to do that?
I suspect some ordinary share buyers don't even know that the preference shares exist.
Many others probably don't understand how they work or their advantages in terms of ranking higher should the company go belly up, dividend payments, conversion terms, and the simple fact they are currently cheaper than the ordinary shares.
I note that Costco have sold at least one unit of BioGuard as it has received it's first review. 5 out of 5 stars and favourable words. As Simla noted a few days back for another product one shouldn't read too much into a single review, but it is good to have a positive first review!
I am really wondering how much revenue and/or profit the market as a whole is expecting for the first half results considering the recent rapid rise of the share prices. Several thread contributors here have made their guesses, but what does Joe average expect?
I'm in for the long haul so, profit at this point is not the most important goal. I would rather they spend a bit more and increased their range and developed new customers and focused on the two to three year goal. Currently I like all the sound coming of the company! If there is a profit then that will be an extra bonus.
Not so straightforward, Emearg. 3.2 cents (I assume you're right) per 138m ordinary shares is $4.4m, so the ordinary shares will be ahead if the company pays out more than $4.4m in dividends over the next 3 years, ie $1.1m pa average. (I ignore tax, for ease.) Many will hope that will happen. Also, they may expect speculators to take the ordinaries to places the preferences shares won't go, as the current price shows. Plus issues like which is more liquid to sell.
And, of course, people HAVE started snapping up the prefs lately. Anyway, either way, it's quite fun watching the psychology of people twigging on to an upcoming stock.
Hi Simla. I'm sorry but I'm a bit slow and don't understand your first sentence so can you please expand on it?
For the record, my logic was:
Option 1) Buy 1 preference share for $3. Over three years a total of $0.30 will be paid in dividends. This effectively bring the buy price down to 2.70. At the end of three years it will convert into 25 ordinary shares (or more if the company doesn't perform). This equals $0.108 cent per share.
N.B. This doesn't take into account any tax payable on the dividends.
Option 2) Buy 25 ordinary shares at $0.14 each which totals $3.50
The person picking option 2 will have paid $0.80 more for their 25 ordinary shares.
Also, if they bought a large number they may have also paid more in brokerage as the value traded will be greater.
Regarding the liquidity issue I kinda took it out of the equation in my example posted earlier by assuming buyers would hold the share for the full three years and therefore receive all 6 dividend payments and following the last payment the preference shares would be converted into ordinaries. Liquidity is too hard to predict and will quite possibly vary on a day by day basis.
For the record it isn't just people twigging on to an upcoming stock who are buying. I twigged ages ago...
Cheers
The $4.4m was simply saying that the ordinaries would still be the better buy in that case if there are at least 3.2 cents in dividends during the three years that the preference shares are not eligible for those, which hardly seems an impossible payout. $4.4m is the cost to the company of paying 3.2 cents to 138m shares over those three years, to make it easier to compare to what sales Blis would have to achieve to be able to pay that.
I wondered a few days ago whether the sheer number of sales outlets, products and target population couldn't produce a good lift in sales regardless of any slow takeup in any given sales market. And Chippie pointed out that Costco alone could produce sales in the millions for Costco without requiring big takeup - 10 cents per head only needs 0.5% of Costco customers to buy one bottle in a year (at $18 a bottle), which surely could easily be exceeded quite quickly. And likewise, selling in 400 stores might reasonably instantly produce 8 times the sales of selling in 50 stores, mightn't it? And with a pack of Epoca selling for over NZ$70, sales of $1m would require only 15,000 units sold, in a country with 130m people and a lot of hygiene consciousness. It is anybody's guess what Blis receives from that $70, but it seems likely to be more than for the VegLife one selling for around US$10. VegLife might sell very well at that price, on the other hand.
It is all imponderable, but it seems to me there is room for surprise on the upside here. Further, we don't even need the half year result to be a big profit, as news of sales since then would be just as meaningful. Guessing a fair share price currently seems impossible to me. The range of possible financial outcomes seems pretty wide - all the way from a very disappointing "you've got to be joking" to a staggering "you've got to be joking"!
Thanks for explaining that Simla. I understand now.
I hadn't taken the possibility of a dividend being paid on the ordinary shares into consideration. It never even entered my head. While it seems unlikely, who knows what might happen if their sales increase rapidly but they keep their costs low? We know that Barry is running a very lean ship and has outsourced just about everything and the probiotics when sold as ingredients have excellent margins so I won't discount the possibility of a dividend within the next two and a half years...
Oh, I'm more optimistic than that, Emearg. If sales are ever going to take off, I can't see why they shouldn't do so over the next year. Once the stuff is for sale in a large range of products all over the world - which IS the plan for the next year, isn't it? - then either it will sell or it won't. Not a great deal to be done then if it doesn't, except throw a lot of marketing money at it. So, if you are expecting Blis to prosper, I see no reason why it shouldn't happen soonish. The only question then would be whether Blis has other uses for the money than dividends. Personally, I'm hoping for more than 3 cents dividend in the next 3 years.
I don't disagree that sales will take off over the next year, but I think it will just be the start of things to come. The reason I say this is because at the moment that are pretty much just including K12 (and very recently) M18 in pills.
No matter how many products it gets into it is a smallish market. Ok, it is worth billions as a whole, but Blis will only see a small portion of that.
The big time will come when it is included in other products e.g. yoghurt, toothpaste, milkpowder, drinks etc etc.
That is where excess cash will be spent I would think?
Before success occurs in these other areas some, many or all of the following have to occur:
1) Product stablisation i.e. they need to get the probiotics into the products successfully
2) Regulatory approval to add K12 and/or M18 into health products in the large, as yet untapped markets e.g. China, India and little ole Canada
3) Regulatory approval to add K12 and/or M18 as an ingredient in a particular market
4) Regulatory approval to have K12 and/or M18 as a listable ingredient in a particular market
5) Patent protection. K12 is reasonably well protected but M18 isn't yet.
6) Get buy in from their customers i.e. they need their customers to want to design/make/market products based that include Blis probiotics
And all these things will take time and money which may not leave much over for dividends?
Spike, I cannot see the terms of the Preference shares anywhere on the Blis website for some reason (maybe I missed it) but the Independent advisor report covers a lot of it anyway, and is here: http://blis.co.nz/?go=News . My own understanding is that the preference shares have a 10% dividend paid semi-annually (probably paid in cash on time, but could accumulate instead if the company chooses), and I'm not expecting any other dividend to attach to my prefs until mandatory conversion in about 2.5 years, nor to be able to convert them beforehand, nor vote with them until then. Does anyone understand it differently to that? As a practical matter, for some reason or other I expect any imputation credits to only attach to the ordinary dividends, not the prefs - does anyone know the right answer to that?
Emearg, I agree with you totally. But the question is one of scale. When all those things happen (China, Canada, food, drinks, M18, etc) then how much revenue might be expected? Do we need to reach that level (which seems potentially pretty big to me) before a serviceable dividend would be warranted? A 1 cent dividend on 138m ordinary shares costs $1.38m. Obviously the Board will put future development first, but does Blis have to achieve total world domination before it has enough cash to pay for that without going broke? Remember too that there are shareholders like the University who will like to see a return on their money, not to mention most other shareholders.
BLIS IAR 12 Mar 09.pdf is available on the Blis site somewhere because I downloaded it a couple of weeks ago. I can't remember which page it was on, and their news is spread over several sections which makes finding things again really hard!
I have searched on the word dividend, and there are plenty of mentions but they all relate to dividend payments for the preference shares i.e. the 10% pa dividend paid twice a year. There is no mention of the preference shares receiving a dividend should the ordinaries receive one.
There is a mention of what will happen should any of the dividends not be paid in cash. Here is the section:
the Preference Shares will pay a gross dividend of 10% per annum paid semiannually, with any unpaid dividends on the conversion date satisfied by the issue of ordinary shares on the conversion terms
I am hoping they don't pay the dividends in cash because receiving 25 ordinaries for every $1 of dividend due really appeals as the ordinary shares continue to increase in value!
According to BLT, their K12 is being marketed in the US by Imagenetix:
Imagenetix isn't doing so well:Quote:
This product is currently being sold through the giant US retailer [Costco]under the brand called BioGuard™ and was developed for the US market by the publicly-listed dietary supplement manufacturer, Imagenetix Inc. ..... According to Imagenetix the BLIS K12, in their BioGuard™ product was selected as the key active ingredient for their product.....
http://bit.ly/3IGAc0
The only reason why they turned a profit in 2009, is because they got a USD1.75 million settlement from a trademark infringement lawsuit, where they claimed USD$2.75 BILLION in damages:
http://bit.ly/1AKXlL
This settlement is listed in the "Total Other Income" entry for 2009:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=IAGX.OB&annual
Disclosure: Holding 10K BLT
I think you need to re-read the annoucement?
The product was developed by Imagenetix.
They are a dietary supplement manufacturer. Based on Barry's words in the ODT it seems very reasonable to think they are also manufacturing the finished product for Costco on a ongoing basis.
There is no mention of them conducting any marketing for BioGuard in the Blis annoucement nor on Imagenetix's website.
Costco are the ones selling the product and running the marketing programme.
Or have I missed something?
In the US, when a company is putting a product out into the market, then they are said to be "marketing that product". Imagenetix will be producing Biogard with K12 in it; they will also putting it out into the market (marketing it):
Quote:
According to Imagenetix the BLIS K12, in their BioGuard™ product
In the US sense, Imagenetix will be marketing BioGuard along with their other products:
http://www.imagenetix.net/
Costco is one of many large US warehouse retailers (like BJs and Sam's Club). Costco is NOT like the Warehouse in NZ. They don't advertise on TV. The only promotional campaigns run by Costco are periodic releases of discount coupon books like these:
http://bit.ly/2SsvGN
In the advertising sense, Costco is not going to be "marketing" Bioguard. Costco will simply be stocking Biogard in the same section of its stores where it sells vitamins, toiletries and other over the counter cold remedies (from other manufacturers).
In that section of its store, Costco might put up a poster to inform its customers of the new Bioguard item and it might include BioGuard in one of its discount coupon books....but that will be the extent of Costco's "marketing" of Bioguard (in the advertising sense). If Costco were planning to sell Bioguard under its Kirkland brand, then I think we would have heard about it.
On the basis of the data that I've cited from yahoo finance, in the BLT->Imagenetix->Costco->market chain, Imagenetix seems to be a very weak link (IMHO). If Imagenetix goes under, then Bioguard will disappear from the Costco shelves.
Disclosure: holding 10K BLT
I saw the state of Imagenetix at the time we found Bioguard. But they did not sound on the ropes to me, just small and upcoming: http://www.imagenetix.net/investors_summary.php, which is still not the same as big and secure though. And in the news release on their site describing Bioguard, http://www.imagenetix.net/articles/2009/004_09.php, they also say, "InflameAway Celadrin® extra strength soft gels for joint health are currently available at the nation's number one drug chain, the number one and number two supermarket stores and the number one club warehouse store".
Your point about marketing is a good one. However, we know that a half-page ad for Bioguard was on page 4 of the October Costco Connection magazine, http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200910#pg7 , which presumably is one of Costco's main marketing tools. Costco must do some promotion or they would go out of business. I wonder who paid for that ad - at least someone did. It will be interesting to see the November edition. Also, there is perhaps not the same need to promote something when millions of people are going to come to the store and see it anyway, which is perhaps the main way Costco expect people to buy their products in general?
It's a good point though, Xynz. My main source of confidence on this is that Blis have a good track record of picking partners so far, and probably Blis have a backup plan too. Time will tell, as usual with Blis.
Which means that their cash flow is bad, in spite of the fact that one of their flagship products is already being marketed in "the nation's number one drug chain, the number one and number two supermarket[s] .....".
When I was living in the US, I saw plenty of the Costco coupon books, but this is the first time I've heard of their Connection magazine. Thanks for the tip. From my personal experience with other Costco shoppers in the US: the coupon book, word of mouth and "grazing" through the store were the main reasons why Costco shoppers tried new products. An admittedly small sample; but personal experience with the companies involved is an invaluable addition to share market research.Quote:
Your point about marketing is a good one. However, we know that a half-page ad for Bioguard was on page 4 of the October Costco Connection magazine, http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/200910#pg7 , which presumably is one of Costco's main marketing tools. Costco must do some promotion or they would go out of business.
That is a very good and relevant question.Quote:
I wonder who paid for that ad - at least someone did.
When it comes out, will you please post a link here?Quote:
It will be interesting to see the November edition.
As I alluded to above, that is precisely the way most products are "marketed" at Costco. Essentially, the effectiveness of Bioguard and its perceived value at its price point will be the impetus for any word of mouth campaign in its favor. IF it starts flying off the shelves, then Costco will take notice and expand its availability (and their minimal promotion).Quote:
Also, there is perhaps not the same need to promote something when millions of people are going to come to the store and see it anyway, which is perhaps the main way Costco expect people to buy their products in general?
Thanks. Costco as a real partner would have been a huge coup for Blis. Imagenetix? Not so much (IMHO).Quote:
It's a good point though, Xynz. My main source of confidence on this is that Blis have a good track record of picking partners so far, and probably Blis have a backup plan too. Time will tell, as usual with Blis.
Disclosure: Holding 10K BLT
Xynz, it's great to have someone with first hand experience of Costco to tell us how it works. Thanks.
(And anyone else with personal experience: I'm still trying to work out what the name Epoca (or Epoka) means to a Japanese person - is it perhaps in Romaji, the spelling of Japanese in English characters?)
The Costco Connection magazine appears to be 2 monthly, so we may have to wait till December perhaps. Here's a bit of a review though (Feb 09): http://www.terrella.com/2009/02/02/c...co-connection/
"As a long-time Costco member, I’m well-acquainted with The Costco Connection, Costco’s brand community publication with print distribution of more than 5 million (and a website)." ... "With a colorful, jam-packed format, The Costco Connection engages members with lively content while at the same time it unleashes a barrage of product placements, advertisements, and customer service pages (such as listings of Costco gas station locations). This approach certainly reflects the Costco brand, which exudes an enthusiastic but utilitarian consumerism that shouts: “Do NOT leave the warehouse without spending at least $200!” ... "The Costco Connection goes a long way in achieving the potential of brand community media. It’s a fine publication. But in the continuum from brand-focused to consumer-focused content, it falls somewhere in the middle and as such it leaves some marketing value on the table. Considering the vast number of copies it distributes, Costco selects its editorial content for broad appeal and easy reading. This makes it a quick read, and for me personally, less engaging than it could be. Still, I wouldn’t change a thing about The Costco Connection! As a flagship promotional vehicle, it works."
And Imagenetix may just be using their cash, rather like Blis, rather than not having enough. The same page that announced Bioguard there, said this: http://www.imagenetix.net/articles/2009/004_09.php
"Going forward, Imagenetix plans to expand its current successful 15 and 30 second television ad spots for InflameAway Celadrin® to national audiences via cable as its primary driver of retail turnover. Starting August 10th, InflameAway Celadrin® can be seen on networks such as FOX News, CNN, USA and Hallmark. The spots will emphasize the theme of InflameAway Celadrin® being "6x Faster and More Effective" than Glucosamine and Chondroitin in promoting joint health. The campaign will also include compelling "actual user" testimonials as further evidence of brand performance and efficacy. This consumer campaign is intended to position InflameAway Celadrin® for rapid acceptance during the balance of this year and into 2010 - with the goal of obtaining loyal advocates of InflameAway Celadrin®. Repeat customers, product compliance and beneficial results are core strengths of the InflameAway Celadrin® brand."
Will they take the same approach to Bioguard? They do seem to know a bit about marketing.
(For those interested in Celadrin - I know nothing of it's effectiveness, just mentioning it, not recommending it - it is for sale in NZ on the web )
Good point that Costco would be a better/bigger Blis partner, but I'm not entirely sure that we know exactly how much they are or are not involved in this deal. They must have at least cooperated with it.
And, when you say, "IF it starts flying off the shelves, then Costco will take notice and expand its availability (and their minimal promotion)." - maybe, just maybe, that is what has happened in Costco bringing the Bioguard review forward to expand to 400 stores??
But thanks, Xynz, all good discussion. I cannot possibly judge Imagenetix personally, of course, but time (again!) will tell how they work out for Blis.
Thanks Xynz for educating me on the way the lingo is used and how things are done in the States.
Having done a little investigation on the web I see the bioguardhealth.com is in fact run by Imagenetix and not Costco as I originally thought. For anybody interested in seeing how the website is doing, here is a data file from their webserver:
http://bioguardhealth.com/awstats/da...health.com.txt
Being a small company I am sure Imagenetix are mighty motivated to see that BioGuard is a success.
If Imagenetix falls over that won't be great, but this is always a risk, even with the largest players.
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/BLT/...2-October-2009 shows we will be getting the first preference shares dividend payment paid in cash on the 13th of November.
I created a Costco account a couple of weeks ago hoping to order some BioGuard (but they don't seem to ship to NZ) and ever since I have been receiving emails most, if not all days marketing various products.
Today's email, as chance would have it, includes a photo (the one that has the BioGuard product in it and the text 'Ideal for Work, School and Traver - Boost your Immune System') and the following text:
BioGuard™ Advanced Probiotic Protection Clinically Proven $18.99
Clicking on it takes you to the product page on the Costco website...
Very proactive, Emearg. However, your experiment also raises the possibility that many of their members may be no more serious than you!
We thought the last announcement was good, but interesting that the market does not seem to have reacted that way this week. Are we letting our optimism get the upper hand a bit since the share price rose so much after the July announcement? Perhaps we've subconsciously taken that on board as more "news" too, whereas those buyers know no more than what Blis has announced. The news we are hearing seems good, but we also know that Blis is undertaking a huge project in total, with a long way to travel yet.
It is likely 5 weeks to the half year result now. As I've remarked any number of times in the past, the Blis share price means nothing until it is finally underpinned by reliable profit. And, as I've also remarked a few times, I personally expect speculators may dominate the share price for a while too, both ups and downs. We may have to wait for the regular dividend phase to really find out what Blis is worth, and that may be a while yet!
Still, the Blis share has never been a sure thing before, and that's what makes it interesting. The day Blis finally seems like a predictable share will probably take all the fun out of it for us.
Why do you think I wasn't serious? I joined up so I could order BioGuard only to find that they don't ship to NZ. Otherwise I would now be one of their customers...
I suspect if you were to dig, Costco may produce figures around the number of active buyers versus email recipients in much the same way Telecom reports on the number of active mobiles versus glovebox mobiles (or at least they used to back in the day when I held TEL shares)
Actually I thought the share would fall back considerably this week but it managed to hang in there. I think we can afford to be optimist that Blis is on the right track but exactly how far up the track they have gotten is very hard to gauge without some figures.
Profit? I want their growth potential to be clearly demonstrate by the figures! I reckon that will drive the share price higher much more effectively than a small repeatable profit.
Fun? This is serious stuff my thread friend! Personally I am active on this thread, and do a lot of research of Blis because the market analysts don't bother with Blis, and the media are pretty useless with small companies like Blis and don't report much beyond company press releases.
Actually I will be very happy to have the fun taken out of this if that means the share goes over $1. I will then find other ways to have fun :-)
xynz's post last week made me think it may not just be Costco selling BioGuard. I have found that Quick2you.com are also selling it, and for $29.99 (Costco is $18.99)
If you want some here is the link:
http://www.quick2you.com/store/index...ails&piid=1250
It seems likely this product will become more widely available on the net in the coming weeks/months which I can only see as positive.
I've just had a nosey on Amazon and I see that BioGuard is being offered in packs of two for $69.99. TradecoZone are the sellers.
I have also searched on the four Natures Plus products that I know about and they are all being offered by at least one seller.
It pleases me to see these products being sold as widely as they are, especially through popular portal sites like Amazon.com. A bigger audience will equal bigger sales which of course equals bigger revenues for Blis. They may not be big sellers, but anything is better than nothing which is where things were at twelve months ago...
Yes, of course it's serious. But, go on, Emearg. Admit it, you're having fun too! One of the things I like about this thread is that most posters accept that we do not know the end to this story. Yes, we all hope it's going to be great, but I can't think of anyone who hasn't sooner or later cheerfully admitted that anything could happen. I don't think there's too much danger of this share becoming boring any time soon.
Sorry, Emearg, There you are giving us yet more encouraging short term news, and as usual I'm slipping into looking to the future. Last week made me reflect again on just how far Blis has got in it's travels, and I see that there is probably a long journey to come yet. The seemingly successful launch in the US is, after all, just the first concrete result of a strategy announced 3 years ago. The 2006 report told of the plan to develop international alliances, a plan that has been very well followed since. But there have been many more announcements since then, which will very likely come to fruition too. And probably more developments we do not know of yet, too. But it will all take time. I think the story will be a fascinating one as it unfolds, but we are nowhere near the end of that story.
Certainly, though, the current news out of the US is now painting a very consistent picture that people on the supply side are very happy to run with K12. The sales figures will tell us about actual demand. I wonder how clear a picture we will get in a few weeks time, though, given that a lot of this has gained momentum after the half year ended. Clear news would be welcome, as always.
Hey, does that make me the most optimistic person here again? $1 "only" requires a profit of $16m for 238m shares at a PE of 15, doesn't it? $16m from a market of 2 billion people, say, is only $32,000 profit from a country the size of NZ? Corrections to the mathematics welcome as always.
It all takes time though, and as noted, who knows if that will ever happen. And as noted, nothing boring about the Blis share. Well done for thinking of looking elsewhere for Bioguard.
I think by the time Blis makes a $16m profit there will be 313m shares i.e. the preference shares will have been converted.
If we are going to speculate (or should that be fantasise as you find it such fun? ;-) ) about these things we should try to keep it a little real.
I don't know if you are the most optimistic person here. Quite possibly...
Have you bought more Blis shares recently? Is your optimism translating into investigating more cash?
Sorry, how do you get 313m? Aren't there $3m prefs and $1m option, times 25 = 100m shares on conversion, plus 138m existing = 238m? Not sure they will have converted by then though, as the prefs miss out on three years' dividends.
No, I'm not buying. I accumulated over 2 or 3 years - yes, all that time I was being optimistic, I was acting on it too - so mathematically I can't change things much now. Of course, I'd like to tell you I bought millions of dollars worth in that time, but, alas, I am only a person of ordinary means. So, now I'm just sitting back and ... having fun watching.
Sorry, I started with your 238 (thinking you hadn't included the prefs) and then added on 75 million for the preference shares. I didn't include the extra options as they have yet to be taken up, although it seems like a given they will be considering the instant gain (on paper at least).
Right, your figures look good :-)
I have been buying over the past 6 months. Does that make me optimistic? More optimistic than you? Hehe, hard to know without more dialogue which I suspect neither of us would want to have over such an open forum!
As I understand it the preference shares are the only type of Blis share sure to receive three years worth of dividends (unless Blis goes under of course)
You are pretty sure there will be enough profit to allow a dividend payment on the ordinary shares!!? Three year worth? They better hurry up on the profit front then...
I find this strange as being profitable isn't Barries priority. He wants to be cash flow positive asap. Correct me if I am wrong (and I probably am NOT being an accountant and all), the two things aren't the same and one isn't always linked with the other?
Where could dividends come from? Costco's many many millions of customers. Nature's Plus etc being for sale in hundreds of shops seemingly, and all over the net. US consumption growing anyway. Canada coming on tap. M18 being snapped up and rolled out. The launch of "food" products, like chocolate milk and yoghurt. Japan's 130m population. South Korea and Taiwan being near. China opening sometime, probably not too far distant. Nestle coming on tap. Europe opening. Possibly opening in other parts of SE Asia. Is India in the mix? And there is at least one more probiotic in the wings apparently.
It's quite a list.
I do understand the idea that costs will eat up the profits. But if there is no profit after opening in that lot, is there ever going to be any profit? So, I would reverse the question: why do you expect there will not be at least 1.2 cents per share profit in the next 3 years? (The prefs seem to me to get 0.4 cents pa a share equivalent = 10 cents per pref/25 shares equiv.)
In Taiwan (pop 23m), this company does not make it's business especially clearly, but appears to sell food ingredients and supplement ingredients. They list Blis K12. As a food ingredient? Or for supplement manufacturers maybe? There is very little about Blis on the site, suggesting it is still a work in progress perhaps? Does this mean K12 has gained some sort of regulatory approval there?
http://www.nutrisense.com.tw/eng/products_1.php?gid=9
http://www.nutrisense.com.tw/eng/service.php
Yes but most of those are still on the 'to do' list. Doing them will cost money (and probably more time than we expect) which will take time to be paid back. Don't get me wrong, I'm not being down on Blis's prospects but I just don't think there is going to be much in the way of profits for the next year or two. Maybe in year three? Anywho, that is the reason I have been buying preference shares rather than ordinaries. At least I WILL get a dividend or even better, payment in shares at excellent terms should the cash not be available for payments.
In five years time I think Blis will be making nice profits, and anybody who bought in at the low prices that have been available for the last few years will be very happy. For those who bought in at the original float price they might still be waiting to get back to break even levels.
Only time will tell...
Have you found any new products lately? It has been a few weeks since the last one so surely there must be another? :-)