All this talk of recession .... what recession
ANZ / Westpac not forecasting any recession this year ... and neither are a few other research places
So no worries .... people shouldn't read Stuff and watch the TV news ..... just spreading gloom
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All this talk of recession .... what recession
ANZ / Westpac not forecasting any recession this year ... and neither are a few other research places
So no worries .... people shouldn't read Stuff and watch the TV news ..... just spreading gloom
Jeez LEK .... so many 'Most assume' bad things
Unlike you to be so pessimistic
Personally I think the the time for, ‘timing’, the market has gone. We are sufficiently deep enough into this bear market that I reckon it’s now a matter of holding and reinvest all dividends or pump spare income into the market to avg down. If you didn’t get out on the top it’s likely you won’t get back in on the bottom..
For me it’s also time to reflect on the companies in your portfolio and their management and ask yourself if you still believe in their strategy and ability to navigate through this inflationary period. Is the balance sheet strong??.. is another key question.
The only problem with that is not only do you have to beat the market, you have to beat it consistently and by a significant amount in order to outperform the tax bills.
Simply holding and adding will always leave you at par with the market and even better off if you up the regularity of your buys during bear markets. A lot less stressful in my opinion and less time consuming.
Selling now is too late anyway, it's such a crowed trade and the market usually bottoms long before the economic situation does, after all a poor economy is usually followed by interest rate cuts.
Obviously timing the market can be incredibly profitable but for the vast majority of people they cannot do it consistently, humans are emotional and most people are much better off holding and instead investing less of their overall wealth in equities if they can't stomach the volatility.
Guru Lister said that when market reverses ...average 17.6% returns are made in first month ...so its better to stay invested now then panic and sell and try to time the bottom
Due to most govt balance sheets around the world swelled to the brim with debt and no way service that debt with higher rates.. i reckon central banks will talk the talk about QT and raising rates (to reign in inflation)... but in reality they wont be walking the talk.
Instead we will have higher than normal inflation for longer than normal and real rates will be well negative.
Cash is trash and a lot of stocks will perform just fine through this
I reckon Cash is King and a lot of things, (not just shares), are going to be a lot cheaper next winter than they are now. Seeing some huge drops already in the cost of a nice holiday home in Taupo now compared to last summer. Early days though. I'm thinking, holiday homes, boats, that fancy luxury European car, campervans and most shares will be cheaper in 12-18 months time. You only lose with cash and inflation if what you are thinking about buying in the future is going up.
Hide from the Bear and when (s)he's done some serious damage pick up some bargains, that's my strategy.
I don't think the Bear we face is bluffing like this one, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCBj9zCQVu4