Anyone like today's news from Geneva? :-)
Printable View
Anyone like today's news from Geneva? :-)
With .50 almost hit highest price (.52 ) for the year, must be some good news ann due out shortly, whatsup ?
Yep, it's great stuff! I wonder what their yearly dividends pattern will now settle into....
I got into them after an article on them by Rob Stock in the Sunday Star Times Business section on July 28 2013 - is that what prompted you Whatsup or did you have a different trigger?
I tried to buy some at .44c after their last announcement but it's so illiquid I missed out and my offer expired. Kicking myself now. Almost the same thing happened when I bought TIL at .84 and I ended up buying far less than I should've. Good luck to holders I hope it does the same thing TIL did :)
I never haggle when I buy, it strings the process out too long and God knows what will happen then.
I check out the prospective share, gross dividend %. P/E, last couple of reports and look at the Depth table. If I am satisfied, including is the share big enough to give ease of buying and selling then I put in a computer order through Direct Broking at the current selling price provided the seller has at least the volume I want, then Bang! I pull the trigger. Result I have what I want within 10 minutes, no worrying or stuffing around.
I bought my latest tranche 10,000 of Geneva yesterday thinking otherwise it will take a significant rise by report date at 49cps expecting them to report about mid June with no dividend. Bingo I was the first in at 49cps and it caught fire!
If I had put in a order at last sale price or just above the other buyers I would be sitting by the kerb, sobbing!
MvT, I personally would like no divi, put the money into growth and acquitions if they are around/available, this years AGM will be very interesting in that the "top table " should give S Hers an insight at to what their business plan is from here on out, could be an interesting future if they get things right,
Note: The financial year for Geneva ends on 31st March
Year Dividends Paid 'per share' Significant Event During Year' FY2013 NIL Exited moritaurium, Established $30m Securitization facility FY2014 NIL FY2015 NIL Rights Issue raises $6.1m, fully subscribed (April 2014) FY2016 NIL Securitization facility increased to $35m (June 2015) FY2017 1.5cps Securitization facility increased to $45m (June 2016) 7:1 Share consolidation 493,040,761 -> 70,435,275 (16 July 2016) Raised $3.1m additional professional Investor funding to build cash reserves (January 2017) FY2018 (f) 2.0cps Average FY2014 to FY2018 inclusive 0.7cps
(f) indicates forecast payment
SNOOPY
Note that due to past losses, dividends will be unimputed (so the quoted dividend figures paid are gross) for the forseeable future.
Plugging in a representative yield, one that represents the ups and downs of the financing cycle of Geneva Finance, we can now arrive at our 'Capitalised Dividend Model' valuation
(Representative Dividend per Share) / (Acceptable Yield) = Share Price (an algebraeic manipulation of: Dividend per Share / Share Price = Yield )
0.7c / 0.085 = 8.2c
A reminder here that NTA was:
$24.9m/ 70.4m = 35cps at balance date (31-03-2017).
This means my fair valuation is at a good discount to asset value. Capitalising the dividend will punish a company when the period examined includes years where no dividend was paid. That was the case here. But it would be wrong to think that under different (less favourable) market conditions, the company couldn't return to a situation where no dividend was paid. It is also true that if the allowance for bad loans was increased to the same percentage that applied in FY2015, a substantial amount of capital would disappear from the balance sheet. So I believe that my 8.2c valuation is fair.
This $0.082 valuation is measured at the average point in the business cycle. One might argue that we are now riding high in the business cycle and that this $0.082 valuation is consequently too low given today's circumstances. I wouldn't argue with that. But would the real valuation at the top of the business cycle increase share value by a factor of 7? Ever the bargain hound, I wouldn't look at buying any shares myself until that share price drifts down to that 8.2c level. Consequently I won't be buying at market levels of over 50c, a price that can only be justified but ignoring all history up to the present (although I accept that some will do this).
SNOOPY