"true value will be shown on the 23rd" I agree with this lol. Would be great if something happened earlier.
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Hard to really gauge if the SP movement currently observed is down to instos. If they are, they are hardly loading up their own trucks given the relatively low turnover.
And that is the thing with low trading volumes...it doesn't take much change to significantly change the SP in the short term (and that goes in both directions btw).
A bit of a boost in quoted value a couple of weeks out from the HY results (and anticipated capital management plan) should be of no real surprise. Of course there was going to be some late interest from those hoping to make a quick and easy buck.
Just had a quick look at the Balance Sheet again.
- As of 30 June 2021 they had $35M cash on the books
- We just sold the campus for $56M. Cash settlement in March. Let's just round that down to $50M for our purposes because there will be agents fees and lawyers fees etc to pay (we won't be paying $6M, but I just want to keep the numbers round).
- Revised FY22 EBITDA is in the range of $150M - $160M. So let's take the midpoint of $155M. Deduct $45M CAPEX, $25M tax and $37M lease liabilities = $48M FCF. Divide that by two for the HY results (not completely accurate because Sky get an influx of cash at certain points of the year when people pay upfront for Annual Passes of NEON and Sky Sport NOW - but 'good enough' for our purposes.)
- So we have $35M cash + $50M or so net proceeds from the campus sale + $24M FCF generated by 31 December 2021 = $109M available cash. This does not include any additional FCF generated in Jan and Feb which will only appear in the FY results.
- $109M available cash MINUS $50M tax free capital return MINUS $20M dividend leaves $39M cash in the bank. Plenty of money for working capital requirements and other opportunities. Remember: the $48M FCF calculation earlier already takes into account the full $45M they plan to spend on CAPEX projects in FY22.
- They will generate another $24M FCF by 30 June 2022. Depending on the % of FCF that Bowman comits as dividends we could get another $15-$20M at the FY results. A total $35M dividend (lower end) at a 5% yield would imply a $700M market capitalisation (~$4/share based on current shares outstanding).
Can't argue with any of that. The fly in the ointment is the Board themselves and their history of being tone-deaf to shareholders concerns, not to mention general incompetence that all but destroyed the company. I think they would be right to be a little bit conservative in returning capital back to shareholders in order to build up a bit more of a war-chest, but 24/2 is the real test as to whether they are now prepared - and have the confidence - to reward long suffering shareholders (the owners).
https://www.skygroup.sky/en-gb/artic...or-skyshowtime
More consolidation…
Is it gay month?
Sky logo looking a bit camp...
https://www.sky.co.nz/
And we can finally retire all of those video tapes...
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...last-30-years/