As I mentioned earlier ....
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Someone just slipped a new top 100 PEB shareholder list under my doormat - must have the wrong address......
It seems from reading the changes to the top 100 over recent months, that it is indeed short term reef fish who have been selling out. Only ONE collective group (who recently went under 5%, I'll let you work that one out) has continued to sell, and the vast majority of these sells have gone into the #1 pot (so I can't tell who the buyer is but it is institutional). virtually all the top 50 holders are unchanged, with minor shifts up and down from a couple of dodgy broker custodians. Another 3 new individual entrants have come into the top 100 over the last few weeks, I guess at around current levels. encouraging.
My general conclusion is therefore that current levels are proving to be where 'the market' sees fair value, as the volumes are pretty abysmal and the price is relatively steady.
My guess is that if those who do DCF valuations have shifted the commencement of the curve out 12 months, then we are at fair value at 80c to $1. This is of course on the proviso that the company expectations going forward are achievable. Both the Chair and the CEO are on record as being unmoved to alter their projections in this regard. Take it or leave.
Very happy to no longer be a shareholder, The story was good last year , now it is uncertain and drifting with the failure to get traction in sales...
Roche are a amazing company to do business with, they obviously listened to the PEB opportunity, and decided to pass. I respect their professional / commercial judgement more than DD and PEB's.
Good luck to the PEB family of investors, I always thought It was a bad idea to do business with family.
I'm hopeful for PEB but not willing to risk capital nor do I see a company as a growth opportunity until steadily increasing sales justify share price / optimism.
I think that’s quite astute Xerof, although the five year goal remains as unclear as it did last year, many including myself, I suspect, will await the AGM and some clearer advice before next committing to updating DCF valuations.
What will be interesting between now and the AGM though will be Edison’s assessment and valuation release, if we indeed see one as rumoured, as this will likely be a valuation based on independent cancer diagnostic market research rather than based on company set goals.
Just a quick question, is the SP being manipulated?
2 (or 3?) days in a row the SP has plummeted pretty low then late buying at the very end of the day sees the SP end where it started. Is this just me being paranoid? Or do big players play this game so to avoid the traders freaking out when MA lines cross and cause the SP to drop on the back of a huge sell off?
Am genuinely interested, aren't asking this to provoke arguments.
Jeez, I would have thought the traders have long gone - if not, they aren't traders.....
My view, if you want it, is the institutions are happy buying, and will probably 'protect' their position at these levels. I think the updated register confirms that its retail selling to institutional (with one exception)
This morning was just sheeples bailing out on the negative commentary produced on this forum and/or from last nights meeting IMO - nothing against NG for reporting it as he saw it, but some people will act on what is written in internet forums
I don't think it's 'manipulation'
That's big vol at the end of the day if just to fiddle the books though right? (1/3rd of the days trade.) , and it's not like we have any common MA's left to drop through anyhow.... :(
In a vacume of no real news(except DDs talk) -only the traders are left IMO you are not paranoid
I would personally keep an eye on outside markets just in case---What do you feel? do you feel its going to rocket, or does it feel like its just hanging in there,struggling to make it back to where it started.
I disagree... It was all greed. Investors got way too greedy and ramped the market cap up to $540m+ for a company with next to zero sales that was still sitting very very early in a long commercialisation process (5+ yrs).
You can blame the company all you want for the retracement, but if you were one of those unfortunate souls buying at $1.20+ then you deserved to loose your money. I just hope that you still had $35 left in your account to buy a copy of the intelligent investor on the way down.
Seriously, what were people expecting? 25k tests in the first six months? 50k? 100k? Actually not physically possible for the company to get around that many urologists/insuers in the US i'm afraid..