Originally Posted by
Fiordland Moose
Quite different companies and investment propositions - apples and oranges, no? Be like comparing FPH with Meridian
Your point still well made.
TRA having a nice rally & sitting on a nine month high. Bit of NZX50 hype, bit of a good NZX Virtual presentation last week, but also the full year result next week & people buying in advance of the dividend (never ceases to amaze me how people eagerly line up to pay for their dividend). I also know of two people who had their cars written off in the rain a fortnight or so ago so wonder if there is a bit of that in the background. How enduring these will be I don't know, and as I'm neither a buyer or a seller, not fussed either way.
I would like my MFT holding to be larger & last time I purchased was in july 2020 and it's been a long time between drinks for such a high class company. I have my eye out for forecast EPS downgrades as some data I've seen together with my gut tells me they might be coming.
Low multiples for a company (relative to its LT history) may signal value but they may also signal the market has doubts about the maintainability of current year earnings and the achievability of forecast earnings, particularly for cyclical companies like retailers, banks (yes, incl. HGH), logistics companies. So something that looked like (say) a 10 PE on forecast earnings, may well have wound up implying something much more when the actual earnings are released.
Will continue to sit on the sidelines for a while. Not buying anything until after the debt limit issue is known in America and likewise sold a few shares (aussie ones). The macro pictures & recent movements in interest rates are giving me some pause for thought - a lot recent froth in the market that I'm not sure reflects the outlook so happy to sit on a tad bit more cash.