Are you still in 2012 Mac? :)
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As the user programmes with the various health organisations get completed, the evidence that cxbladder is a very accurate test will grow. This will naturally gain more attention from third parties, which has happened already. If per chance, Pacific Edge does not get the sales it expects, it will not be down to the quality of the test. More likely due to a small company not getting market penetration. Personally, I think they will get there.
But if the shareprice remains around the level it is, a bigger fish could come along and offer a takeover price at around a 100% premium, which is high by NZ takeover standards, and snap up cxbladder for $300m or so.
Just a thought.
And who is going to agree to all that, current shareholders? I think not,
our underwear probably remains sacrosanct until about 10.00. If it doesn't, then it should.
This has been discussed at length and it has been established that a takeover bid is not in the best interests of anybody given the potential. Why would they after all this effort and planning sell out to some halfbaked enteprise and watch it all turn to custard. Whats the point?
I see each user programme as being more of a marketing tool than as just yet another clinical trial. They are PEB's equivalent of a salesperson jamming their foot in your front door.
The more user programmes in the US, the more convinced, one would hope, that all those LUG account managers will be to sign up contracts. The more user programmes and trials the better, bring em on.
Personally I wouldn't be a seller at around one dollar , but I know that fund managers & large shareholders don't tend to have the same attachment to shares that small holders often have. Harbour Asset Management , Superlife, etc will sell if they are sitting on large profits and can achieve a quicker return. Masfen has already taken some profit . I'm not saying it would be good, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened .
What's your thoughts on this Brighton? As far as I can see, CxBladder is the most accurate test on the market and should take over and be more successful (because of its accuracy and ability to grade cancers) than NMP22. The market sizes are quite large, around 2 million potential test per year in the US, possibly 1.5 million in Europe (similar sized, but healthier market, this is an estimate) plus the rest of the world once they get their act together. At $550 a test in the US and possibly a gross profit margin of 50% (which is what Alere, the makers of NMP22 report as obtaining), you are talking about big $$$.
Like others have said, @ 10% of the US market only we are talking about $110 million revenue, $55 million profit, 19c EPS. And if its as good as it appears, we could be looking at 50% market penetration in a few years, requiring of course substantial expansion on PEB's behalf, but translating to $550 million revenue, $225 million profit and 75c EPS.
And that would just be the US figures. Add in Europe and we are talking a third more again (assuming less profit margin) if it grows at the same rate....
I understand it's all potentials until people start buying. That there are politics involved which could get in the way. But competition appears to be years behind and accuracy over current methods is miles ahead. Once patients know that the product exists I am sure they will start demanding it.
Excellent post Bobbles, great to see something backed up by reasoning rather than emotion. Clearly huge potential for this company.
I find your comment about politics getting in the way very interesting. It's no secret businesses will try and protect their income. Could this be a major hurdle for them - more powerful companies spending big dollars to maintain status quo or hold PEB out for their own products?
A novelbladder cancer detection test an entrant in the NZ Innovators Awards .... along with the innovative cardboard pet casket range
http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/0...lists-revealed
There is a peoples choice award as well ... you guys better get organised
A novel bladder cancer detection test an entrant in the NZ Innovators Awards .... along with the innovative cardboard pet casket range
http://www.idealog.co.nz/blog/2013/0...lists-revealed
There is a peoples choice award as well ... you guys better get organised
We look set for a move up today...seller has not appeared....well positioned....
Yup, should've hold onto my parcel... dammit
Let's not forget that health professionals will gravitate toward superior medical solutions that ultimately improve a patient’s health. There is also the power of patient demand, and word of mouth that we must not underestimate.
Price point is important and health professionals will pay a premium for a product like cxbladder that ultimately both better benefits the patient and also reduces overall work up costs.
This link provides an example in application, it independently compares cxbladder to the existing market competition NMP22. Alere the maker of NMP22 claim was that NMP22 was the only FDA approved non lab diagnostic test kit.
http://bladdercancerfight.blogspot.c...omparison.html
Yeah that's them:
Innovation in Health and Science
Sponsored by Ko Awatea CMDHB
Bodystance Ltd - Backpod™
Footfalls and Heartbeats Ltd (FHL) - Footfalls and Heartbeats
Pacific Edge - Cxbladder; A novel bladder cancer detection test
Texus Fibre Ltd Helix Non - Woven Natural Composite Materials
University of Otago - X-imm24
Attachment 4811
Attachment 4812
This is the very basic modelling I have done at the moment for PEB. There are just way too many unknowns for further analysis as far as I am concerned, but it does go to show you that if they are successful, they should be very successful!
Note that the market sizes are estimates based on comparative population sizes. The only market size we really know about is the US at around 2 million, the rest are extrapolated, but assume the US is unhealthier by 25% and therefore the rest are smaller even after considering population size.
Ignore the blue column, this was part of another analysis.
This does not take into account growth, year on year etc, it simply is a model which has % market penetration. I have assumed a lesser amount in NZD for the tests than they may actually be sold for and assume the penetration in each market to be the same (obviously it won't be in reality but you get the idea).
Those figures look fine blobbles and are in rough alignment with PEB’s own provision of market penetration gross profit estimates.
We must be cautious in anticipating too much at HY14 reporting. PEB commenced sales within the US on 1st July 2013, thus there are 3 months of sales accumulation to the end of the reporting period on 30th September 2013.
The five US sales staff are both new to the company and the technology, and during this 3 month period we should regard them as being in training. Customer relationships will also just be starting to be identified and formed.
Based on nothing more than PEB’s achievements in the NZ and Australia market to date, a HY14 sales figure of just a couple of hundred tests would be an exceptional result in my opinion. Although we should expect the ramp up to start in earnest in the second half year to FY14.
My FA of the forward revenue stream to $100M provides me with an understanding that PEB may well be a $5 stock in FY16, however, it will not be a straight line, a ramp up is required.
I agree that it is more difficult to estimate early revenues without better guidance from PEB. My efforts in tracking and following PEB over the last 12 months, and anticipating sales from the information we do have, provide me with a FY14 valuation of $1.25.
Seems like our seller has left the building..
I see from your posts that you suggest a Gross Profit of 50% and I believe you use those figures directly to determine EPS. I have a vague memory that the projected Gross Profit for PEB is actually higher.
Gross profit is generally based on the direct cost (manufacture) of sales but will definitely exclude a number of possibly significant items: Income Tax, Interest, Depreciation of Assets etc and may include much more.
I believe your EPS figures would be a lot more realistic if you work on a 20-25% profit/revenue margin in a few years time.
I seem to recall a comment from PEB that it would be two years (FY 2015?) before they had a positive cash flow.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
It was a block crossing Moosie, not part of the auction. These are usually just shifting across nominee companys or such like.
ST is giving away flags in SF at the moment, and there was a distinct lack of selling pressure today, as predicted on this channel yesterday.
whether what his 'broker' is saying is true or not, time will tell, but for now I am very happy being long