love the word concomitant... have already used it in correspondence.. cheers P
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love the word concomitant... have already used it in correspondence.. cheers P
Greg
Yes I haven't seen anything that has altered RBD's intrinsic value. Infact I toped up on recent sp weakness. You can chalk me down for that one P.
As an example of what might happen to change the thesis, RBD might decide that they're super-stars of fast food, and bring in another franchise, which will send me running screaming to the hills...
:-)
cheers
Greg
You make a coherent argument Belg. Perhaps you will be proved right. But you should bear in mind ingredient costs tend to be fixed in medium term contracts by RBD management, and are not affected by the 'spot' market.. Threre is little evidence that consumers are feeling more confident. My own expectation is that a double dip recession and a very slow grinding recovery is the most likely outcome. And there is absolutely no evidence that the taste of KFC is becoming less popular. Quite the opposite in fact. Consumption is rising faster than inflation.
So while you and Phaedrus may yet be proved right, I can't see a single piece of evidence in the market, bar a falling RBD share price (which has turned the corner and is recovering again anyway). Short term the market is a voting machine and share prices will be buffetted. Medium term, I can't see such scaremongering scenarios as gaining any traction. At a PE of 9 the market is already pricing in your scenario of doom, so worst case the RBD share price stays still. IMO the only way to go is up from here.
SNOOPY
I guess Mr Market worries too much.
You can have a punt on that at iPredict ..... currently about 50 cents to get $1 returnfor the December guarter GDP to be negative so a technical recession is reported (unless they revise Seot to a +ve number)
Odds were much longer a month or so ago .... about 10 cents for $1 return
You are right with your 'espectation' ... go on make a few bob out of it .... good fun
Hi guys,
How about this for a bit of fun?
I tried the following recipe during the weekend - A so called near exact tasting recipe of KFC made by an American guy, who used to be a former finance worker
http://homecooking.about.com/od/chic...lchicken46.htm
I was stunned, if you actually sit down and let the flavours linger in your mouth for a moment you could actually taste the KFC!
I pretty much ate a whole 15 piece pack to myself in the weekend LOL
Hi Belgarion
thanks for that. How do you find out about ingredient prices? As you point out, if these go up, KFC (aka RBD!) suffers. So any thoughts along how to find out those ingredient prices, and their potential movements would be great to know.
I guess my problem is... there is some market weakness, but I can't make a causal link with increasing (or potentially increasing) ingredient costs, because I don't know enough about where to get that data from. So any heads-up would be great.
I found:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_...ry-prices.aspx
which is pretty interesting, but I understand that RBD has long-term (4 years remaining) agreements with Ingham and Tegal. Im not sure of the details, but I assume that price will be reasonably fixed. Interested to hear any other data around this.
cheers
Greg
Maybe Belg is thinking cheese, milk and coffee beans as a starter ... and then the cost of bread rolls and the stuff that makes the pizza dough .... even if chickens are off limit
Hi Gregday,
Have you thought of trying the company itself?
I started doing this over the last year or so and now believe phoning executives is one of the best ways to quickly understand the business and confirm or rule out parts of your thinking. Even how willing they are to enlighten small shareholders is telling in itself.
Perhaps RBD might even be able to shed some light on ingredient prices and contracts ? ?
Cheers
Sauce
Save yourself quite a lot of money by making KFC yourself
http://homecooking.about.com/od/chic...lchicken46.htm
Great I'll give it a go.
I think Greg and Belg want a copy of the costing.:)
KFC, PH and Starbucks stores have all been closed in ChCh since the quake, on the west side of the city. Almost certainly they will be closed in the east too. This hasn't been reported to the NZX, but since the SP dropped to $2.40 today, I guess the market knows!
SNOOPY
You may have strated some panic selling there Snoopy!!!!
WIth interest rates likely to take a dive for the rest of the year RBDs dividend looking even better I would have thought
Yes, odd the stock has continued to go down. Normally that would suggest I have been buying!
:-)
Still happy with my thesis, and as winner69 points out, the dividend yield will soon be even more attractive. Quarter 4 sales should be out relatively soon, and I'll revisit my valuation then...
cheers
Greg
True, but I still consider RBD undervalued, so will let it run. I also consider RBD to be stable (assuming management don't get a rush of blood to the head).
I want the NZD to drop like a stone to increase the NZD value of my US stock investments...
60c anyone ? [evil grin + maniacal laugh].
cheers
Greg
Noticed Starbucks on Lambton Quary by Lambton Square Wellington closed on 28 Feb 2011...
So has the Vodafone outlet a bit closer to Parliament ...