Hunting for Value pays off eh
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That flux capacitor i fitted is doing the trick
Hope Emmett gets that special gadget that breaks down resistance at $3 up and running sooner than later
Its funny guys...ever since I got the "legend" mocker off my back and changed my handle to something more appropriate my luck has turned very nicely. I'm thinking our good mate Couta1 might have a quiet bevvy or two tonight as well...he's been doing a bit of hunting for value too :)
I think I have to take some of the credit, I didn't end up buying more although I came close - had I bought more I am sure it would have gone down farther haha.
I am happy with my holdings and will be happier to see a close higher than 2.27 which will be another higher high after setting the higher low and from a chart point of view a sign of being bullish.
Perhaps the experts on charts can add to this......
Hardly an expert, though the daily broke up through the 50EMA today and the daily chart sure looks good pulling up and away from the short term rising trend line. Plenty of overhead resistance around the 2.28-2.31-2.35 mark. Still good upside and the daily's could sell, take profits anywhere that suits them. Certainly some good short term profits already for the quick and nimble.
The trusty weekly chart, for the slightly more conservative capital manager, definitely fired the signal today (10EMA) but hasn't pulled the trigger (14EMA at 2.27). The brave weekly chart follower might buy a close above 2.27 breakout (tomorrow?) but would be wary of the 2.35 resistance. The devoted weekly chart follower might wait for a weekly close at least above 2.27 (yes that's the close on Friday this week), and preferably above 2.35, then it's all go. Noting 2.45ish though is also a major resistance being the rising trend line support for years, but now resistance. That's the thing with charts that have gutted themselves, there's heaps of resistance risks above the current price. But many were also the failed supports, so are less risky or reliable than might appear at first glance.
Yes, I know this leaves a few percentage points on the table, by not buying the lows or rushing into the daily trend line confidence, but it also eliminates a lot of the short term risks. The weekly devotees are looking for a confirmed trend, up or down. It's about confirmation in as much as one could expect from something as fickle as the share market. Depends really on how one choses to manage their capital and how quick and nimble they are as traders.
All this is caveated by what we don't know we don't know. News out of nowhere can change it in an instant, either up, or down.
2.27 key level to watch , multiple patterns in play around this level on both daily and weekly all bullish
Our mate Couta1 with his XXXXXXXL positon will be getting some good AIR off his ski jumps this morning :)
Oil price is down 20% from the peak it reached in June this year. Coincidentally (or not) AIR sp started falling as well as the oil price rose.
Given the outlook now that oil is likely to fall lower and stay low for the rest of this year, AIR looks good.
An announcement regarding a special dividend or share buyback - that will be viewed very positively by the market.
I would be happy to get the Divvy and the Special and then exit at around $2.40. Afraid I'm also in the Couta bracket and severely overweight with 75,000 shares owing $2.18. Whilst $10K up at today's price I am comfortable holding. Have always thought if I get stuck with this one I will be happy to hold and have been a believer in this Company for a long time.
This stock is still struggling to take off in my view...;)
......looking like a dangerous time to be selling IMHO. In fact I think I'll buy some more.........divvy and all that is. Down the slippery slope and hopefully all the way back up again........or at least MOST of the way back up. I'd be happy with that.
I think we've all learned over the last six months or so how tough the aviation game can be. In many respects what KW once said to me is right. The aviation industry worldwide is full of egotistical leaders who all think they have the right recipe for expansion and dominance. Its seems they can't help themselves...expand, expand, expand ! I think AIR's management have learned a valuable lesson from their time with VAH. When I asked Mr Luxon after the 2014 annual meeting what the rationale was for the investment in VAH the answer I got surprised me. We can't just stay a small niche airline in N.Z. or that's the words I recall to the best of my recollection. But that in fact is exactly what they are and they shouldn't aspire to be anything else in my view. If they do things well and stick to their knitting and don't try to grow too fast then they should do okay. I think the shares are good value fundamentally at the current level relative to most other NZX stocks and relative to their peers internationally but the aviation industry by its very nature is a volatile one.
I hold about 8% of my portfolio in AIR, not looking to increase that. Hope that somewhat evasive answer is helpful :)
Chatter... IMHO.
Disc. None.
VAH successfully completed capital rising, so $300m AIR loan to VAH will be surely repaid, VAH will run a top-up program at A$0.26 to HNA for up to 19.2%, so will AIR feed 2.6% VHA holding to NANSHAN to keep their 19.9% holding? all looks are tailwinds:)
You might want to check your numbers mate. Going off memory the loan to VAH is more like 140 something million $A but agree that this loan will be repaid, in fact it was a condition of the capital raise so repayment will be effected imminently if it hasn't already. The new era of hightened competition is not a tailwind.
Gotta be happy with that eh Couta1 ? Go skiing and make more money than if you'd been working...life is good some days isn't it !
Counting my blessings that's for sure mate and yes see weed a happy man. Not expecting perfect flying conditions going forward but my FA Gutometer values this share around the $2.50-$2.60 level, that's with the competition thing priced in. The weighing machine is working again and the patient will be/have been rewarded for hanging in there.
I agree, you are not alone wanting to offload from what I hear, so expect it to be bumpy, the SP has to survive ex dividend with an uncertain competition cloud which will again be signalled at year end. Low air fuel allows others to keep up the competition while if fuel stayed higher for longer more likely to drop competing routes quicker.
The market is a funny place and short term, it is all about human psychology for the vast majority of investors, traders and watchers than anything to do with fundamentals.
As a sp goes down, those who buys shares to invest long term start having doubts, get fearful and actually sell rather than buy more.
As a sp goes up, those who are looking to sell start getting greedy and actually start buying more.
That's why sp overshoots on the way down and on the way up.
Where is AIR? Tails winds vs head winds now - in the absence of anything adverse happening, my pick is that it will go back to $2.60 - half way between recent lows and highs. Sentiment could push it back up beyond $2.60 but fundamental value (consensus) is around $2.65.
Big falls in U.S. airlines stocks overnight on concerns regarding passenger yield, (Delta's yield down 7% YOY in July). Keep you seat belt fastened today folks.
AIR still happens to be on my watchlist (it is a good company after all, and I used to make money with them) - and it just took its turn for a wee review.
As well - trying to understand some of the hype in this thread ...
Fundamentals:
forward PE: 4.3 - Great ... however, even optimistic analysts predict this year to be the best ... all downhill from here.
average P/E (last 6 years): 15.3; not that flash for a cyclical stock in a downtrend ...
SP to NTA: 1.4 (ok-ish, but I remember times when it was smaller than 1 ... this might be a better time to buy)
Consensus of 6 Analysts (4traders): $2.22 to $2.60 with a mean value of $2.42 and a "Hold" recommendation;
Industry:
Cyclical and many airlines are currently loosing margins due to increasing overcapacity (some are making losses). Rising tensions around the world might put a damper on travel ... though cheap oil is obviously an enabler - and NZ tourism might have another good summer (though not quite sure, how the BREXIT will impact on that).
Trend:
Attachment 8203
Well - hands up, if you think this is an uptrend ...
So - not sure, traders can push it anywhere, but from a fundamental analysis it looks fair valued at best, and the trend speaks for itself.
Wouldn't be surprised if the SP holds (or lightly rises) until the dividend is declared ... and steeply drops after it goes ex dividend.
Anyway - I will keep them on the long-term watchlist ... I am sure, there will be times I see them again as BUY, but not now. Much more attractive below $1.50 or thereabouts ...
Discl: not holding;
obviously: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy!
I for one always appreciate you sharing your nous BP.Sure looks like AIR is trying to form a new trend but too early to tell imo.Im not far off being in the black and look forward to bailing out of AIR. Tempting to jump after the div without a parachute (i.e. seeing if i can direct my flailing limbs towards that stretchy soft landing net) but many others may be thinking the same.Timing is everything.
World first: Skydiver plummets 25,000 ft -- with no parachute - CNN.com
10 year average PE is about 11. Forecast NTA at 30 June 2016 is $2.01 so price to NTA is only 1.15 using consensus NTA analyst figure. Consensus PE next year is 4.8 taking into account average analysts expected impact on FY17 earnings so trading at well under half the 10 year average PE despite expected effects of extra competition in FY17. Stock looks good value relative to its peers most of whom trade on FY17 PE of circa 6 and most at significantly higher premiums to NTA despite the apparently lacklustre outlook for the sector.
I agree the shares will drop by the amount of the dividend as soon as it goes ex but astute followers of the dividend stripping theory will know the chances of relative outperformance in the few weeks before and after going ex are high on the balance of probabilities.
I'd like to see it crack the 100 day MA line, thanks for the chart and good luck getting them at circa $1.50...there might be one or two people just ahead of you in the queue hunting for value at that price :)
http://www.4-traders.com/AIR-NEW-ZEA...07/financials/
BP there's bargin hunting and fire sale hunting, methinks your in the latter category, but you have to be optimistic, right. Your crystal ball seems cloudier than a mountain white out.
Hmm, yes ... I do prefer to buy undervalued shares, but that's just my personal preference ;). Re the cloudiness of my crystal ball - I guess this is much easier to assess after the event, but you well might be right. It is not always correct, but than - more often than not.
Report landed :mellow: on my desktop this morning which, in world ranking, places AIR
41st by revenue and
59th by RPK.
QAN (15 & 22)
VAH (39 & 53)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
PT
are you seriously saying VAH and QAN are better investments than AIR? If so I think you've taken leave of your senses. AIR actually has a domestic franchise business to support it (QAN does too but definitely not VAH). AIR has made money consistently across the cycles post the Ansett debacle. Most other airlines globally not so much. Actually Southwest has a BBB+ investment grade rating in the US and AIR is BBB and QAN lost its rating only a few years ago when AIR was still profitable.
yep, like you Couta1, revenue and RPK are only part of the overall FA of an airline, obviously profit and expenses are also a pretty major factor. As per those stats compare Qantas and VAH being higher on the ranking list and what divvy??
Or more to the point, are any airlines good investments at present ?
Many European airlines have come out in the last few days with gloomy outlook and profit warnings.
Lufthansa has changed their outlook from a healthy increase in profits to a profit downgrade saying a significant reduction in forward bookings has been noted, particularly long haul and mentions flights to Asia being dramtically hit. Shares fell 8% after the announcement.
Easy Jet says outlook has not been worse for a decade. Terrorist attacks and continuous strikes by airport workers across Europe have lead to thousands of cancellations. Shares down 4-5%.
Consolodated Airlines Group (BA & Iberia) have seen share price down around 30% since BREXIT.
Rynair said future uncertain and will now not introduce new planes as planned, to its UK business.
Wizz Air, Icelandair, Norwegian and SAS all warning of tough times ahead.
Delta Airlines reducing winter schedule to UK/Europe and United indicated it will do the same.
Not my cup of tea Iīm afraid.
Always appreciate your sound posts Iceman. No question terrorism is having an impact on the demand into / out of Europe. Its clear there are many bad apples in the barrel in term of refugees who have fled the Middle east conflicts.
Fortunately AIR has very modest capacity to fill on it's own planes into that part of the world.
Thatīs very true Roger although AIRīs profitable domestic network relies on tourists, many from Europe, to keep the planes full.
My post was more about pointing out some gathering clouds for the industry as a whole, clouds that are quite dark at present. Worth watching in my view mate.
Personally I'm stunned how quickly the world wide commercial airline outlook has turned.
Also best not to pixx off the locals especially if tourism were to drop off. See below, been waiting for this to be raised. When the weather is bad from Christchurch into Wellington or Queenstown you do not want to be on a ATR 72..chances are they will turn around and take you back to Christchurch. After the first few times this happened everyone now wants to book on the airbus which is now limited flights...
http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel...rs-are-suckers
Fair enough but I'm not debating the merits of airlines per Se just that AIR is clearly better than QAN or VAH. I know QAN got their rating back but it's only because of leverage to low fuel prices imo. They lost their rating a few years ago while AIR maintained theirs. VAH has c 35% of the domestic air traffic in OZ but have been a perennial loss maker compared to AIR who have c 90% market share on the NZ domestic network and successfully milk that franchise to support the airline as a whole despite any local criticism. A bit like how people hate banks and petrol companies but they have to use them and they keep making $$. Jetstar can peg them back a little but it doesn't compare to what QAN do to VAH and vice versa.
AIR will no doubt pay good dividends for this and next year and is cheaper on earnings than QAN and VAH but whether it is of itself a good investment is much more complicated.
Well its may not be his reason however i appreciate PT posts as he provides a different perspective for consideration as an investor/trader. If we just get the positive ra ra from the cheerleaders we lose something.... equally if the place is dominated by pessimists...we lose information to make a balanced view.
Absolutely agree mate. I suspect there's two sides to this though. Some of the people that would have gone to Europe for their holiday will visit down-under instead for our clean / green / safe environment.
Latest stat's from Tourism N.Z. show 11% growth so they're still coming in droves. Whether AIR is getting its share of this growth or many of these new travellers are coming in on bargain Chinese / Asian flights is another question.
Latest operating stat's from AIR tend to indicate their growth is at a lower rate than the inbound tourism growth so some slippage in market share appears to be evident.
So how much are we losing of market share given options into Auckland, Queenstown and Christchurch..will Wellington also follow this trend..I guess we will keep the domestic traffic. I do wonder on the Auckland hub approach and how much competition that does allow in elsewhere. When the horse has bolted...
It would take a lot more than that to upset me :) I guess I just find it interesting that someone who says that "they do not believe that one should invest in any airline" is participating in a thread that is for an airline stock. A bit like me turning up at the local pub and telling the punters that I don't believe they should be drinking booze. Anyway, enough of that - back to the more serious business of investing (or trading). Happy Friday
Hmm - interesting statement. I always thought this forum is for exchanging ideas about stocks, investment ideas and the share market in general. I learned here (well, maybe not on the AIR thread) a lot about investing and am very grateful to people like PT, Hoop, KW and many others that they share their views with us. I don't always agree with them, but I always find their posts useful.
I think what PT probably wanted to indicate is that investments in airlines are inherently more risky than many other industries, and therefore should command a higher level of (expected) return. This is a very relevant view for this thread, so why shouldn't he state that here, whether he intends to invest in AIR or not?
Sure - some people only learn from their own mistakes (and some not even that), but for everybody else is it invaluable to have access to a wide spectrum of views ... and if it is just to test from time to time the own investment decision. Some people might be perfect (well, I am not), but for everybody else this is of benefit.
If you don't agree with PT - why don't you just prepare an argument indicating why people should invest into airlines (and I certainly could think about a reason or two for that as long as the promised return looks good enough to accept the higher risk) instead of questioning his reasons to post on this thread?
I would love to keep diversity of opinions on all threads ... and certainly the pearls of wisdom from some of our most experienced contributors.
Yes ;Investor bias is a design flaw in humans(like kneecaps:).Opposing views, wisdom,experience and unbiased opinions can blossom into equanimity.
I to enjoy a variety of posts positive or Negative and we are lucky on this thread to have some very knowledgeable people. But I wonder if someone held a gun to PT's head and said you have to invest $50K of your hard earned money in one of the following stocks (QAN, VAH or AIR) would AIR really be the third choice??
http://data1.ibtimes.co.in/cache-img...865_kabali.jpg
Buy MY airline
VAH is the obvious first choice, QAN definitely the second.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
LOL...anyone that can't see that VAH is a flea ridden mongrel should've gone to spec savers. For posters further amusement https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...2803&FORM=VIRE
Air made money throughout the GFC, VAH can't even make money during FY16 with the strongest tailwinds in the aviation sector in arguably 50 years !
Remind me again, how many billions did QAN lose a couple of years ago ?
There's valuable insights and counter arguments and then there's trolling for a reaction, the two types of posts are different animals.
Why would you fly Emirates??? They are really putting a squeeze on media releases.
Pilot chatter is, the emiratie pilot after a hard landing initiated a go around, retracted the undercarriage before the power came on. The aircraft sank, struck an engine and the rest is history.
The link is the actual ATC communications
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94VPOXc2bEM
I think we can all agree that AIR is the best airline listed on the NZX.
However why this widespread vitriol of other airlines beats me. If you are happy with your AIR then good for you, relax.
But I note that people keeping harping on about the past and to let you into a little secret:
Successfully profiting from investing is about looking to the future and finding those companies where present price is at a discount to value.
You do not get it right every time but you need to be more right than wrong over time.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Quite unfair and inappropriate statement. Emirates is (together with Air New Zealand) in the group of 12 safest airlines ... and while this ranking has been established prior to the latest crash ... Emirates has still not yet lost one single passenger, despite flying many more miles than Air New Zealand. Air New Zealand however lost already full planes including all passengers (think Mount Erebus).
Personally - I used to do a lot of long haul flights (and still do the odd one) and used over time (in no particular order) Quantas, Cathy Pacific, Lufthansa, Air New Zealand, Emirates, Singapore Airlines, United, BA. Some of them are really bad (BA and Quantas), and some of them are quite good. I'd generally rate AIR, Emirates, Singapore Airlines and Cathy Pacific as some of the better ones. However - if the cost and the connections are comparable, than I would always pick Emirates over AIR, though AIR is improving over time (newer planes and better seats). Emirates still offers much better conditions (e.g. better luggage allowance), often better food, better service and always modern planes, while AIR offers more a lottery - some new and comfortable, some old as.
Thanks for that secret PT, I never would have guessed. That secret insight explains your remarkable success in the ST competitions in the last few years....and to think having studied Investment analysis at Auckland Uni and getting an A pass I've been doing it wrong for over 30 years...
Anyway...yes please let's get back to discussing AIR, thankfully Chris Luxon has managed to ostensibly extricate AIR from VAH...what would the directors and CEO of AIR know about running an airline eh...pretty sure when he was on the board of directors of VAH Mr Luxon might have gathered one or two insights about the company than even you might have missed PT ?
Thanks for the entertainment everyone..more exciting than the share price!
This post from the resident feline from 20/9/2004, I reckon near 12 years of singing the same tune means most holders of the stock would most likely have got the cats message by now. Actually I hear on good authority that Air treat feline passengers very well whilst in transit.
Don't lose hope, without hope you have nothing as a holder, albeit hope is losers strategy it still makes you feel better. AIR rallied hard off last Friday's close up, broke $2.28 resistance, slammed into the $2.35 resistance then folded back to $2.28, but still well up on the dismal $2.02 lows and nicely above the rising short term trend line line. Probably just a few nervous nellies shaken out or nimble traders cashing in on the ~10% capital gains? The patient will be here for at least the dividend, after which the real fun starts, who holds, who folds etc. Like a Glen Campbell song, but you don't have to listen to it, fortunately.
The latest stats are indeed good, but they are history.
Yes I think NZ has a strong point as a tourist destination being perceived as a fairly safe destination. But a large chunk of our tourists are from Europe and they almost all travel via Asia. If Lufthansa, Europeīs biggest long hau airline, is saying they notice a big drop in forward bookings to Asia, I am concerned about the effect that will have on the NZ toruism business.
Even though I am not interested in debating the merits of commentors on here, I totally agree with posters who have said we need differing views on this forum. I particularly agree with Black Peterīs great post 7764.
PT provides much to this forum
A lot of Europeans now coming thru EZE. I suspect this is why AIR is increasing capacity on this route.
http://assets.amuniversal.com/86d86e...bd00163e41dd5b
The Air New Zealand board is one of the least experienced, in the aviation field, in the industry.
Only Paul Bingham has put in real work at an airline and that was with Air New Zealand.
Even Mr Luxon himself admits that he is not an aviation man, his experience is limited to his time at Air New Zealand.
He might, but then again he might not.
Then again, again, there may be a few insights that he missed.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: Have visited the Flying Tigers Museum in Chongqing.
"The Air New Zealand board is one of the least experienced, in the aviation field, in the industry.
Only Paul Bingham has put in real work at an airline and that was with Air New Zealand. "
Hmm, the AIR board don't seem to be doing too badly for relative amateurs do they? They operate a very efficient commercial airline, have thought well about the future in that the fleet is very up-to-date, they make a reasonable profit even in the current climate competing against an increasing number of more experienced competitors - and all this accepting that they may have missed again and again and again valuable insights from VAH.....
Yes, I would like the SP to soar, but no one has ever said that flying was always smooth, with a tailwind.
Very proud shareholder!
Norm Geary did not have an aviation background. Nor did Ralph Norris or Jim Scott. Rob Fyfe's aviation background was as an RNZAF engineer.
It is about running a business, not a flying school.
Historically stock rises nicely post result and I am guessing this time will be the same
VAH would have given C.L. many insights into how not to run an airline. VAH's balance sheet and operating position is still very weak and vulnerable even after the capital raise. Their CEO has fiddled for six years while Rome burned. Very happy AIR is down to 2.5% and their unsecured shareholder loan to them has either already been repaid or is about to be out of the cash issue proceeds. That circa $A130 shareholder loan is about $137m Kiwi and would be a good start (circa 12 cps) towards funding our special divvy :)
From a pure business model I think management would have ditched the international arm of AIR a long time ago. The return on investment is just not there.
AIR's international Ops is more about Branding for the Govt, waving the NZ flag and supplying customers to the profitable side of the business. I don't think it really matters who brings the tourists to NZ as long as they get to fly domestically.
True enough, but I think that when the crunch comes on, that's when it starts to matter who brings the tourists to NZ as the other airlines would have no vested interest in doing so and would drop the route if it suited them. This is why it's in AIR's interest to maintain an international arm, even if it becomes a loss leader (which seems unlikely given they would pick up the freight volumes if competitors back away).
You're focusing on the RPK rate in N.Z. for short domestic flights and not factoring in all the ground handling costs, aviation, landing fees or the fact that domestic planes are used for a relatively low hourly rate per day. I mean no disrespect but I couldn't disagree more.
"http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by RTFQhttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...post-right.pngFrom a pure business model I think management would have ditched the international arm of AIR a long time ago. The return on investment is just not there.
AIR's international Ops is more about Branding for the Govt, waving the NZ flag and supplying customers to the profitable side of the business. I don't think it really matters who brings the tourists to NZ as long as they get to fly domestically."
Labour govt missed it big time circa 2007 , they could have flogged off Auck airport to Dubai , allowing them to create an international hub out of Auckland ( Aussies wouldn't let them do it there) . At the same time they could have
flogged off the International part of air nz .Remember the international losses suffered over GFC .... anyway thats history , but that would have been a couple of very good deals to pull off imo.
[QUOTE=Roger;631404]You're focusing on the RPK rate in N.Z. for short domestic flights and not factoring in all the ground handling costs, aviation, landing fees or the fact that domestic planes are used for a relatively low hourly rate per day. I mean no disrespect but I couldn't disagree more.
Higher frequency and synergies produce lower costs, ground handling and the alike. I suggest that the capital cost of the international fleet is 3 x that of domestic fleet numbers.
Yet the domestic ops produce 70% of the profit.
A good modelled company aims for 15% return on investment, an airline uniquely gets around 4% return.
On a side note UAL some time ago made a record profit of $900M, this equated to an average of $9.80 per passenger carried that year. Still a very poor return on investment.
Enjoy your posts R
RTFQ it is obvious then that all airlines should close down. (smiley face if I knew how to produce one)
Not all, leave a couple flying and let us buy share in them before the formal decree that closes the other bad apples. ROR will sort itself out...and demand.
This makes as much sense as no industry experience on Boards as required..not sure what everyone is on around here...
Hi everyone. New here and new to trading. Have bought a small holding in AIR and have been enjoying reading everyone's thoughts and opinions.
Can anyone tell me what they estimate the upcoming dividend range will be including a possible special.
Thanks
Welcome to the forum simjp81.
I would say the final divvy would be in 10-15c range and as for special its anyone's guesstimate. If you've time just go thro' few posts earlier in month of Jul where there's been good discussion about the possible special divvy which arose out of AIR selling out their stake in VAH.
If you would like a figure for special my bet is around 15-20c range, if there is one. Hope it helps.