Will need to be a long descent before some passengers would look at rebooking a flight.:cool:
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U.S. airlines and QAN down ~ 2% overnight / today. No worries, just moving in line with the sector.
Looks like the afternoon rally is about to start with volume picking...
Repetition and reputation don't go hand in hand. Applies here and all threads. Look at Mod, for example who posts only occasionally and has huge rep, whereas others trot out the same old same old, day after day, usually re-enforcing what Mod said months ago. Choose wisely whose rhetoric one listens to, moreso what one follows. Just saying.
BAA
Don't see anyone on here with the same thinking on the special(s.) I reckon only ~ 75 cps in total FY20-FY22 when the capex holiday is in full swing. After completing their capex program in my opinion they need to get their gearing right down towards the bottom of the range before paying out special's hence I've made my own judgement call on the estimated amount and timing of specials.
Some people on here were barking that AIR was a screaming buy at $1.75 nine months ago and its doubled since then...and others...well I could go back and post some really good examples of "interesting calls" but that would be impolite but one thing other (perhaps new posters), might like to consider doing is having a look back at this thread in the Sept - December 2016 period when the shares were well under $2 and see who was holding a really negative view back then and see who on the other hand was backing the company 100%.
Roger, not sure whether you do yourself a lot of favours by continuously bagging posters who warned that the AIR euphoria might end some day (actually, I think I was one of them). Sure - use your licence to brag, but don't overdo it.
I don't think anybody said at that stage that AIR can't go up ... people (well, at least me) just pointed to the inherent risks in airlines which should (in my view) command a greater reward.
Now, obviously - some people (including yourself) took the risk - and so far are reaping the rewards. Good on you, but while risk taking is a trait, being lucky is just that. Look - if I tell my teenage son that it is stupid and risky to drive without wearing a seatbelt, than he might laugh at me. The next day he might tell me - look daddy, you told me it is dumb to drive without seat belt but I did do it and and I am fine. You have been wrong - ha ha ha. Same with you. We told you it is risky to buy airline shares, you bought them, the risks didn't eventuate (well, so far) and now you feel smug and over the moon.
As far as I am concerned - nobody can predict where the price of any share will go ... but I still see the risks circling around AIR (as around any other airline). Tourism is peaking - and running into its limits. The usual risks (increased competition, economic turndown, terrorism, pilots with mental health issues, volcanic eruptions) didn't go away - and the SP is clearly at a long term max, meaning that potential future rewards are dropping while the risks don't go away.
I guess it is up to any individual how they assess these risks. However - don't tell me you have been able to foresee that we had no major terror attack, no lost plane and no volcanic eruption over the recent period.
Discl: while I do have several children, they all are beyond their teens and none of them (to my best knowledge) ever drove without wearing a seatbelt - i.e. the example above is just made up;).
Certainly not "continuous", I absolutely refute that. All I am saying BP, (wasn't aimed at you) is that some posters made some very interesting calls on AIR when it was down under $2 in late 2016 and new members on here might like to go back on this thread and read some of the posts over that period. Not naming names but I am entitled too and was responding to Baa Baa's post which I am sure you would have gathered. Some posters are probably entitled to feel content having backed this company and its management through thick and thin and against a barrage of bearish comments on here in late 2016. All stocks carry risks BP.
BTW - New model Honda Civic won't even let you drive away until your seat belt is fastened, shuts off the electronic throttle until seat belt fastened. Brilliant safety device for my wife...say no more :)
Beagle / BP - I for one mentioned $1.50 was a possibly at the time- based on long term cyclical trends. Wasn't I really stupid
However been a great ride since - doubled my money since.
Have broken my long outstanding rule 'Don't invest in airlines winner'. Always thought it was tempting fate and if I bought a AIRplane would crash and I couldn't have lived knowing I might have been a cause if so many deaths, Still worried.
Also keep reminding myself of Mr P bit if wisdom 'the market giveth, but the market taketh away'. Especially good advise for a 'cyclical' like AIR which is currently trading at high multiples (modandum says high multiples only when profits are bad - but AIR heading to its 2nd highest ever profit ever)
None the less. $4 beckons soon. Good stuff
Bet you are glad Winner I talked you out of your superstitious hogwash :)...although I think one or two people landing at Wellington yesterday might have had cause for concern :eek2:
Look at this mate ....how not to land at Wellington. Did well the 2nd time around
Always quite a thrill when they decide to take off again while in the air - experienced it a few times myself
Amazing hyperlapse by Mark
http://instagram.com/p/BWdivhNg0Q7/