Was wondering if this might come up... the big boys who's profits are climbing yoy can claim rent relief. See what you have done cindy and robbi.
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Well HLG done and dusted and silence from them until mid Feb when they’ll tell us half sales and likely profit
And beagle will have to wait until end of March to find out how much Glassons sales have surged ahead.
And W69 lets hope you HLG bulls dont get carried away expecting a fantastic result. The very smart and credible HLG management team have stated several times that profit will be down this year compared to last. So likely the half year profit will be down.
We have to also keep in mind the risk of further lockdowns this financial year due to omni. It is very clear to me that consumers put buying clothing at the bottom of the list when locked up at home. Kitchen, home office and entertainment goods seem to fare much better.
HLG remains on the watchlist and is not a buy right now. Probably see another year of stagnated SP- just my opinion, only valued at 2 cents.
Picture says a thousand words.
Attachment 13344
you never know with retail its as fickle as weather can be and that is why you dont go over weight in anyone retail stock..
Briscoes should have an interesting summer with some stuff needed for bach's and those fully vaccinated BBQ's parties... where only your fully vaccinated mates are invited..
Boosters brought forward to 4 months could be the move that really gives NZ market an advantage and AUS should come right in MARCH as their population get's BOOSTED !
Rawz me old mate -- yes bullish but one always needs to keep an open mind and consider some what ifs
F21 was a boomer year for HLG --- huge sales increase from pent up demand and lots of subsidies / relief .... NPAT over $33m .... pandemics are good for the likes of HLG.
Let's say that F21 was a one off and things will revert to more normal levels in F22 .... and beyond. As you point out they already preparing us for reduced profits.
Here's that long term profit chart again but with a likely F22 number added ..... still looks pretty impressive but not as impressive if we leave F22 off.
also it reminds us the impact of Di sorting Gassons out in F17/F18 taking profits to $27.4m .... and the boost that that all that pent up demand gave to F21 results.
The new norm might be flat profits around the $29m/$30m mark for a few years
That's one of my open mind views ..... but no need to panic yet
2021 was indeed something special - just look at the jump in revenue / stores.
2018: 112 stores / $278m Rev / $2.48m per store
2019: 116 stores / $288m Rev / $2.48m per store
2020: 114 stores / $288m Rev / $2.53m per store
2021: 115 stores / $351m Rev / $3.05m per store
THere are a a bunch of ways to speculate what that means, but I think it is a combination of higher portion of discretionary spending going to retail (instead of Hospitality & Travel) and also the Glassons online store adding more new sales than simply taking from in-store sales (e.g. The online store serves all of Australia/NZ & USA, not just the areas with a physical store)
Will be interesting to see how the recent store opening in Adelaide goes, which I believe is the first store there despite n being bigger than Auckland. Still massive growth to come in Australia of course, with possibility of more than a hundred more stores if they are going to have similar store per capita as New Zealand (although makes sense to have less stores per capita but in more densely populated areas to increase efficiency, and leave the smaller towns to be serviced by the online store)
Hey LEK .... if you look at sales by half year how does your thinking go -
........Sales......v pcp
H119 151,244 3.1%
H219 136,306 4.1%
H120 160,266 6.0%
H220 127,497 -6.5%
H121 181,977 13.5%
H221 168,782 32.4%
H1 is August thru Jan etc
Suppose we will have to wait a few years to see (in retrospect) whether shopping habits changed or whether it was a timing issue related to lockdowns - ie find a more normal trend
everything is automated , not even thinking about thinking about + - / * anything..
its all scripted and full automation... big year of work...
EBO throttle up....
Hey LEK - if you breakdown sales into store and online (from what HLG say % is online) your numbers from yesterday like this.
2018: 112 stores / $242m Rev / $2.17m per store / online $36m
2019: 116 stores / $244m Rev / $2.11m per store / online $41m
2020: 115 stores / $225m Rev / $1.95m per store / online $63m
2021: 115 stores / $266m Rev / $2.32m per store / online $84m
In F21 sales were up $63m - $21m of the $63m from online and stores recovered and contributed $41m
Wonder where all this will settle down once there's no disruptions to store openings