Originally Posted by
Beagle
FM - Mate you have a classic case of "paralysis by analysis" The scenario you outlined is applicable as a possible future for all retailers. You will have seen my recent analysis wherein I articulated the value of Glasson's Aust and its proven high growth.
The fact of the matter is if you want to conjure up dire predictions you should sell all retailers.
HLG is very cheap relative to its peers and has a proven track record of high growth in Australia unlike any of its peers. Its really that simple. If you're going to hold any retailer I think this is the one to hold. Most people are well and truly done and dusted with expenditure related to nesting and are looking to let their hair down in a big way with socialising / peacocking. Apparel is going to have a sustained tailwind for at least 12 months in my view. HLG has about 25% of all sales online which is best in class by a long way.
No debt, high stock turn, management with a huge stake, strong margins...and most of all heaps of growth to come in Australia. Did you know their store footprint with Glassons Aust is 33 and with Glassons N.Z. its 36 ? That's right, less stores in Australia at present than N.Z. and yet the total addressable market there is well over 5 times the size of N.Z. Here's my hint to you mate, mull over the opportunity for ongoing strong growth they have over there.