Yeah, looks like some drip feeding at 2.16...drip drip drip. Can you stop that drip couta 1.
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Yeah, looks like some drip feeding at 2.16...drip drip drip. Can you stop that drip couta 1.
Same here, also in for the longer, med., and short term. So am not too concerned about the price at this level, If it goes up you will kick yourself , if you buy now and it goes down you will kick yourself. Too much paralysis causes analysis......or is it the other way round.
Wow ... 54 % into just one (at least medium risk) stock? Some might call that brave, others might use less PC words. Are you sure that you want to take this risk? I guess even if we assume that AIR is not a cyclical stock on the downwards path ... S**t happens in any industry, but particularly in industries who tend to fly people (or ship goods) around the world.
Just imagine it would have been AIR instead of Malaysian Airlines loosing a handful (or just one) plane. How would you than feel about your investment? Sure - some airlines are better than others, but there is no absolute security.
Personally - my limit is 10% in any stock ... and yes, sometimes I allow this number to grow slightly in an uptrend. However - never choose to put more than half of my eggs into the same basket ... Kids - don't try that at home!
I usually stick to the 20% limit too - but over the past few days the rapid appreciation in my BLT holding has taken it up to just over 26%. I've been on board with BLT since 2005 and ridden that roller coaster over the years since then. I think there is plenty of life in the SP yet so am happy to hold and will be delighted if it reaches 40% of my portfolio over the next 2-3 years.
Not so keen on the AIR roller coaster though - I've sold most of my holding in recent weeks- it's now only 2% portfolio share!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11681687
Hahahahaha.
Poor sods.
Buyers building up go baby go:D.
Not quite, I am happy with what I have even though I would like to add some more but wont be full of regret if it goes up from here and I miss out. I am not sure the weakness is over, significant volume added to the sell side to match the 160,000 shares on the buy side right on market close - makes me wonder if there is still some selling to come but it does appear that the sell level seems to be that 2.15-16 range previously mentioned and no shortage of takers.
My balls or bank balance are not as big as some :scared:
Watching closely ready to buy more if I get the sense the time is right.
That´s no guarantee of hassle free travels. I recently flew AIR to Houston, connecting with Lufthansa to Frankfurt. AIR was 2.5 hrs late out of Auckland and 30 odd passengers lost the Frankfurt connection and had 24 hrs delay in Houston. Most of us had to rebook (at our cost) further travels within Europe. Needless to say, none of us wwere too happy with AIR´s performance and their on ground Houston service was pathetic.
The real question is why airlines do not have a decent process in place for delays and especially overnight delays anymore..... a long time ago they had hotels sorted and food ready on arrival at hotels if you had a delay...it all seems to now turn to **** with conflicting communication with no clear process... it makes a bad situation just worse.
Yeah I have to admit I was less than impressed with how AIR handled a delayed baggage situation when I went to Vancouver 6 months ago. Wasn't their fault the bag never made it on due to a backlog at AIA but the customer services didn't deal with the claim process on my return very well. When dropping a fair amount of $ on business class flights there was an expectation AIR would have handled it with a degree of pedigree which never happened. I had travel insurance but there was a limit of $1200 and buying clothes in Vancouver for a day trip to -6 degrees in Calgary isn't cheap and the $300 over spend proved a challenge to get repaid.
As above. It is apparent the service of days gone by are long gone.
Credit where it's due, the direct services on the flights, check in, lounges and ease of use with the app is brilliant.
Just another reflection of air travel as a commodity these days.
Today suggests a bounce off short term trend line support, upside target $2.28 being previous resistance. There's so much overhead price resistance above that it doesn't worth mentioning, so rejoice in any capital gains AIR might present in the short term. Beware the price discount impending due to dividends many expect to be paid out.
I wonder if our friend Couta1 has been reading up and researching the available studies on the merits of dividend stripping. I think he's going for a maxi strip...sure the SP will drop temporarily by the same as the dividend but all the studies I have seen show more often than not the price recovers within a few weeks and sometimes a lot sooner. Could turn out to be a share play that's as cunning as a hungry beagle dog.
Concerns remain but validity of dividend stripping as means of augmenting other investment strategies is also valid. Not in conflict...just have to ensure one has the right sized shareholding at the appropriate time.
Couta1 obviously taken the view that where we are now is some sort of baseline and I hope for all of our sakes he's bang on the money.
Long moving averages are not encouraging, as the 200MA has crossed down through the 400MA, the 'double death cross'. Last time this happened was Aug 2011 heralding a one year down/sideways move before the Aug'12 spike up and the 200/400MA cross back up in Dec'12.
The 400MA can also be informative when the SP crosses through it either way, like it did crossing up around $1.00 and recently down at $2.70 whereas it has supported the SP twice in the past 3-4 years. Unlike the 200MA which has been breached down 5 times.
This is only relevant if you care about capital management.
At 54% I'm sure Couta views AIR as an exceptional opportunity.
In 1986 an investment of $100000 in Microsoft would be worth $40m today.
Now that's a truck load.
Not sure air can in anyway be compared to microsoft. Let's see how big the special divi is and the market reaction before the back slapping commences. Still think most here are underestimating the financial impact of new carriers into airs previous monopoly/ most profitable routes.
Today is going to be another watershed day when the price bursts well into the 220's
What do you see the impact of the competition? I agree perhaps it has been underestimated by some but with NZ tourism and global tourism in general going through the roof is there not the headroom for some competition?
Inmigration is another increase in demand and NZers are also traveling more.
Fuel hedging looking good and oil price outlook relatively subdued.
I'm not saying 2017 or 2018 will be record profits but I don't think it's all doom and gloom and at current SP undervalued.
$200-250m before tax impact from new competition this year IMO. My estimate appears to be substantially higher than average analyst estimate. I still think the market has over reacted to the effects of new competition but sentiment is what it is and until the company clarifies its IH17 outlook uncertainty will prevail.
Roger I think you are correct re to be analyst estimates. By giving monthly updates re operating stats I think we are watching a slow motion train smash as we will continue to see load factors fall across the most profitable routes. This isnt to say air nz are to start losing money anytime soon but the landscape is changing and more completion is seeing air nz dropping their pants to fill seats On the long haul routes. How much they can make back on the domestic routes once all the travelers is in nz is the million $ question. Still think holding out for a windfall special divi in these changing times Is a big call. Going forward with reduced profitability what is the long term sustainable divi level for air is the question ?
Not sure about profit basis but domestic makes up about a third of passenger numbers.
Biggest grouping is short haul at nearly half and smallest is the Asia/Japan/Singapore which isn't even 5%.
Competition isn't exactly hitting the numbers across the board.
I look forward to guidance in EOY results but perhaps they paint a picture that is worse than they think to make it easier to out perform or understate it.....
Early days on the new trend towards lower load factors and lower yields and I think describing it as a slow motion train wreck is excessively pessimistic but its well worth noting that AIR's management themselves acknowledged the operating environment has now normalised, (as opposed to tailwinds through more modest competition). They wouldn't / couldn't estimate the extra competition effect going forward at the investor day briefing but I do think the last two month's operating stat's show analyst estimates made at that time may be a little optimistic. I remain of the view that we're looking at $500m - $600m before tax for FY17, (which is well below average analyst estimate) but there's LOTS of water to flow under the bridge between now and June 30 2017. I think an annual dividend rate of circa 20 cps fully imputed are sustainable going forward across the cycle, but again time will tell.
Indeed but trying to estimate the impact of competition on the bottom line is a best guess scenario that no one can answer with any degree of certainty. Looking at passenger numbers and on the routes in particular facing competition can at least give some indication on that impact. To what degree do AIR release commercially sensitive calculations on specific route margins.....
A post after the June stats were released honed in on the only load factor in the 70s range that when taking into account the route grouping being the smallest number of passengers flown and statements of how this impacts overall profits to such degrees when in reality a large portion of AIRs business is not really being affected quite so much as supported by the overall stats.
Time will tell PT and I don't think I am looking through rose tinted glasses nor am I looking at worst case.
Etihad has coughed up the Dirhams to paticipate in Virgin's(Under Arm Bowlers Division) capital raising.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...64a3676f24975a
Y'all know my plan for Etihad to buy Cullen Airlines from John Key. Seems Etihad is still interested in Austalasia, so my hopes remain.
Rumor has it that Virgin(Under Arm Bowlers Division) wants to swap in its Tiger brand metal on short haul international. I wonder if that includes across the ditch? Crouching Tiger Airlines and Cullen Airlines can compete on how many bodies they can compress onto an aircraft in thrombosis class.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Stats - read the title of my last post.
But RPK and ASK for Domestic is the smallest (at 15%) bit of AIR operations. :t_down:
Asia is next at 21%, then TasPac at 29% and USA/UK at 35%. :confused:
But of course it is not that simple. :mad ;: In fact it is very complicated. :eek2:
BTW Do you want to buy some A380's, PM if you are interested.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
[QUOTE=workingdad;629844]Not sure about profit basis but domestic makes up about a third of passenger numbers.
Domestic is where most of the profit is made. Still got a monopoly there. With fuel heading south towards $35/brl again, with a little uncertainty towards the end of year, AIR will continue to make good profits. The fuel issue will mean conservative forecasts.
I think 54% is a bit crazy but probably no more crazy than a property investor buying an investment property as their only investment and borrowing $500k to do it.
You won't get rich quick with an ETF or 20 stock portfolio but over time, you should. There is a chance Air goes to $3 in the next 6 months and if it does and he hangs on for the ride, he's cashing in big chips.
If the tide goes out, he's going to be caught swimming naked... I'm sure he knows this.
I have a lot of respect for you PT and your wit.
At the end of the day different terms but still similar..... load factors are RPK divided by ASK and yield well that is as you say very complicated. My point is still the same, this competition everyone keeps referring to as if the end of AIRs profitability is not across the board on all groupings and there are tailwinds to offset it.
[QUOTE=RTFQ;629903]They also stand to do better with rather good US dollar hedging in place as well.
Looks like a fair chunk of AIR revenue come from International flights. Unfortunately H1 reports don't seem to give yields for the different International sectors so just grouped into International in the table below
International 12% of passengers but 44% of revenues
Wonder what this table will look like for full year
I picked up a few more at the close at $2.16. Cheap enough relative to where other stocks are at and ultra low call rates @ AA- rated banks. Gotta put some money to work somewhere, won't get far in life with 2% interest on call. Vast majority of the NZX market is really very stretched at current prices IMO. OTOH It won't surprise any of you that I think all my other stocks are also good value LOL :D
Thanks Winner, I reread the same update looking for this today and missed it..... Good to know. It will be interesting to see the full year one, but at least 56% of revenue is reasonably well entrenched re competition.
With international being 12% of passengers and 44% of revenue, this would be in line with the increased operating costs of international.
Interesting to see the yield in domestic is $0.275 versus international of $0.108 which is in line with RTFQ comment on domestic making most of AIRs profits.
Almost text book trend line TA today, rising up to $2.195 to test the quite steep descending trend line from the highs (closing price basis) and falling back to retest the short term rising trend line support $2.16 (the MO of sell the afternoon and the close continues, they say it's the bunnies that open and the pros that close, so go figure on that one).. being picky, I'd prefer to have seen $2.17 support holding but slammorama into the close and it's $2.16. Unless there's some great news we don't know about odds are on that this will leak lower, in any event it appears range bound pending the dividend announcement, which means relatively minor risk +/- 5% to the upside or downside. Notwithstanding unexpected good or bad news.
I find it interesting that over the past couple of years, revenue from both Domestic and long haul have grown but Tasman seems to have stagnated in $ terms. That means that Tasman has dropped from 27% of rev to 24%, while Long Haul has gone from 41% to 44%, and domestic has stayed steady at 31%.
As Workingdad has mentioned, domestic yield is much higher at 27c/km than international at 10.8 c/km, but the fixed costs have fewer km's to spread the cost over, so yield should be higher.
It's pretty hard to know how profitable routes are based on yield (or RPK or load factor) alone.
Qantas Adds New Service Across Tasman
To Melbourne* and Beyond!
http://tesco.scene7.com/is/image/tes...wid=384&ht=384
*Also an extended service to Brisbane, batteries not included.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Thinking of a holiday escape to LA for three weeks in September. Have just browsed ticket fares on both Qantas and AirNZ websites, return flights from CHC to LAX, depart on Sep 2 and return on Sep 23, quoted on AirNZ NZD964 vs. Qantas NZD1749 (both include taxes).Geee that is a huge discount given by Air NZ, remembered one way to LA used to be $900.
Your also talking about September which should be high demand given school holidays and many private schools having three week holidays at that time. We are going over...although exams start to get in the way of older child families...Qantas and AA will have discounts again soon although AIR is good from chch with no domestic fight delay risk..
I fly chch to lax monthly for business, AA and Qantas have been averaging 1000$ return which has brought AIR own fares down to match from April. Now below $1000, my overall budget spend for the year will be half last years...
Asia is heading the same way... and for product from Christchurch to Europe you would not choose AIR.
The good thing is even moderate trading on AIR in the past 12 months will have provided stella returns...has for me...AIR and competition has been a win win!
AIR management said in their investor day briefing a while back they expect yields to normalise in FY18. Airlines can't keep selling return fares to Honk Kong and LA for $999, its not sustainable over the long run.
Don't get too worried about short term specials affecting average yield...these things have a way of averaging themselves out over time...besides that fuel is dirt cheap at present.
That said I do think people need to look through the forthcoming final / special divvy and understand there's a new competitive landscape. Having too many eggs in one basket doesn't make sense to me but each to their own.
AIR sp creeping up again. See what happens at end of day with the down pushers. Or have they finished? Wouldn't mind getting a few more, can't think of anything else better to buy at the moment:confused:.
Today heading to be that watershed day after all -220 plus
Model not working. The flux capacitor helped it so must have been that econometric stuff i added (too much data mining possibly)
Back to the drawing board i fear
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y26...-NZX-AIR-2.png
Spot the bargains!
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Crikey cobbers Virgin(Underarm Bowlers Division) has thrown a sickie.
Sydney Morning Herald;
"Virgin Australia posts $225 million loss as restructuring costs bite."
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...28-gqfgzj.html
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Steep down trend line broken to the upside, short term rising trend line remains in force. Overhead resistance range $2.25 - $2.31. Low volume, minnows in charge of proceedings today but thin buy support above 2.15 and plenty of sellers above 2.20. Sure is interesting.
Very surprised your Etihad people can't see this mis-managed pup for what it is. Must be an abundance of surplus petro dollars sloshing around for sand airlines even with the low oil price !
If Virgin can't make decent money with the most favourable tailwinds in 50 years of aviation when can they ? Congrats to Chris Luxon for being the only one with the gonads to call Borghetti out as being inept. Even better he basically said he goes or we go. Mark of a good leader he had the courage to ostensibly extricate AIR from this hideous mess. Just a tiny 2.5% shareholding to sell and Ansett MK2 will be done and dusted with far less damage than last time round.
This is the second time that Cullen Airlines has gone big in the Land of Underarm Bowlers and failed to get a fair suck of the sav.
Some strategic thinking is needed in the board room of Cullen Airlines. Is the prize of the Aussie market worth the risk? If it is what should be done different next time so it does not come a gutser like last two times.
Should Cullen Airlines just fly across the ditch and resell seats for passengers transferring to Aussie domestic flights? Should passengers wishing to travel beyond Aussie be transferred over to Etihad metal?
Roger, Etihad knows a mismanaged pup when they see one. After all they brought into Alitalia.
Boo boop de do
Marilyn
We might get takeoff today mate, end of the trading month and all, maybe some window dressing by insto's at the close too.
Marilyn, AIR should just stick to their own knitting and stay out of investing in Australia and let VAH and QAN eat each others lunch. I asked C.L. at the 2014 annual meeting what the rationale was for the VAH stake and got the most unconvincing answer of the day. I don't think he's ever been 100% on board with Rob Fyfe's vision in that regard...at least he had the courage to do something about it !
brought back in yest as it was holging up to well to get down to 2.05 again 2.30 today?
Aye, I gotta feeling the price wants to go up more, but there is 2 sellers at 2.23 selling 80,000. So come you guys and gals, lets smash through it, and push sp up to 2.25, and we all be happy:t_up:.
LOL mate. The ol Rodge would have been in like flynn pounding away at your behest...the new more circumspect one, (the one that's taken a few good clubbings to the temple) is far more careful and looks for canny down-draft / air pocket opportunities :) Me ol mate Couta1 out of gas...I guess we'll have to rely on other buyers and insto's for end of month window dressing.
On the next air pocket / downdraft I'll be looking to hoover up some more :sneaky2:
Inch by inch slowly creeping up, could be at 2.30 - 2.35 by reporting day. I'm happy with 1c a day gain.
Marilyn Munroe always leaves a sour taste in my mouth when I read his posts, always seems to be negative.
In other news....
Annual Shareholders’ Meeting
Air New Zealand Limited advises that its Annual Shareholders’ Meeting will be held at the Air Force Museum of New Zealand, 45 Harvard Avenue, Christchurch, on Friday 30 September 2016 at 2.00pm.
Air New Zealand will be offering in addition to our usual meeting, an online attendance option this year, giving shareholders the choice to attend and participate in the Annual Meeting via an online platform. Details of registration for those who wish to participate online will be included in the Notice of Meeting sent after the 2016 Annual Results on 26 August 2016.
Nomination of Directors
Nominations for the position of director may be made on or before 5pm Friday 12 August 2016. Nominations must be made in writing by a security holder entitled to attend and vote at the Meeting, and should be directed to the Company Secretary at Air New Zealand, Private Bag 92007, Auckland 1142. (This announcement is made pursuant to NZX Listing Rule 3.3.5 and ASX Listing Rule 14.3).
Good grief I'm back home the day before the AGM date, I actually can make the AGM for a change..soo many good things to talk about..guess they will try to deflect it all with a decent dividend haha Low volumes made it tricky to pick up the number of shares I would have liked this week...
I think you might be in charge on the annual meeting in terms of reporting back on here this year. Mind you if there's a decent number of others heading down from Auckland I could be persuaded to make a day of it nas long as we're flying with AIR, (jet-hole on my never again at any price list).
There's going to be an online webcast option. I would like more companies to do this.
Should be standard now, even if the AGM is where you are located, sometimes easier than travelling across town to keep an eye on proceedings via laptop or phone.
ps Rodger, people outside Auckland are not randoms or zombies and you can venture out of the city without weight of numbers...:-)
LOL I do know a few so I'm pretty sure you're right :) but there's more fun in numbers. Couple of years ago we tied in a trip to the Chch AIR AGM with a ST group meeting afterwards...was a bit of fun...not sure if I can get away from under the mountain of paperwork I have at present...we'll see.
Roger a happy man tonight, all your stars getting in line....SLC, AIR, PGW, ATM etc, I know I am:t_up:.