The url above is a PDF of the July press release which was widely published in newspapers to which 'the market as a whole' has access. The next week or two could be fun.
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Hi Guys, I just could not help myself (but there is not much to do on a rainy Sunday).
I have always made working assumptions of what kind of potential revenue could be achieved in the USA. Based on current NZ sales of approx $400Kp/a and a population of 4M people. I calculate 10 cents of revenue per head of population has been achieved (with very little marketing).
USA population of 307M x 10 cents = $30m. Off course this is a bit rich considering you need the products and distribution need to be in place.
But that being said, the data below from Costco states they have 56m cardholders. So 56m x .10 = $5.6m which could be a reasonable working assumption. As you get into the detail you could debate that we are not comparing like with like but you could also argue US$ vs NZ$ and also the fact that BLT costs are significantly lower with Costco doing all the marketing.
But all that being said, it is not unreasonable to assume potential sales through Costco alone of $2M - $5.6M p/a is possible? So I hope the 40 store trial is successful.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....ol-homeprofile
Number of warehouses: 560(as of 09/18/09)
Areas of operation: 407 locations in 40 U.S. States & Puerto Rico;
77 locations in nine Canadian provinces;
21 locations in the United Kingdom;
6 locations in Taiwan;
7 locations in Korea;
9 locations in Japan;
1 location in Australia;
32 locations in 18 Mexican states
Membership Data (as of 8/30/09): 56.0 million cardholders
30.6 million households
21.5 million Gold Star
5.7 million Business
3.4 million Business add ons
Warehouse sizes: 73,000 to 205,000 square feet
(average 142,000 square feet)
Annual revenues
(FY09 - Ended 8/30/09): $71.4 billion
Here's an unusual page in Japan. This is a six-pack of Epoca for 31,500 yen, which Google tells me is NZ$468. They also sells it in singles and threes.
http://www.takachanmarket.com/produc...oduct_id=17325
It beats me, guessing the implications of selling it $468 worth at a time!
Maybe that Japanese site targets small retailers as well.
The article posted earlier in the ODT fleshes out last weeks announcement and certainly has a feel of optimism about it. Normally I would take that with a grain of salt, but Barry's style has been understated in the past, probably to the detriment of the sp. If he's sounding upbeat (and he is) it has to be a nod in the right direction.
It seems you can buy Epoca in 1, 3, 6 and 12 month supplies in Japan. I wonder if this is a sign of what customers are asking for? The population of Japan is 130m, and it seems likely there has been at least some definite marketing from the outset. At the price it is selling at, Japanese sales may not be trivial for the half year?
http://www.regedebeaute.com/4.html
Just over $86,000 in head and PA shares traded today which must be one of the larger turn over days. It is good to see strong buying at the current share price, but I do wonder why people buy the head share when the PA share is better value.
Many of the buyers of the ordinary shares today were effectively paying 3.2 cents per share more than they had to assuming they were willing to hang on to them for three years to receive all the dividend payments.
I can't think of any good reason to do that?
I suspect some ordinary share buyers don't even know that the preference shares exist.
Many others probably don't understand how they work or their advantages in terms of ranking higher should the company go belly up, dividend payments, conversion terms, and the simple fact they are currently cheaper than the ordinary shares.
I note that Costco have sold at least one unit of BioGuard as it has received it's first review. 5 out of 5 stars and favourable words. As Simla noted a few days back for another product one shouldn't read too much into a single review, but it is good to have a positive first review!
I am really wondering how much revenue and/or profit the market as a whole is expecting for the first half results considering the recent rapid rise of the share prices. Several thread contributors here have made their guesses, but what does Joe average expect?
I'm in for the long haul so, profit at this point is not the most important goal. I would rather they spend a bit more and increased their range and developed new customers and focused on the two to three year goal. Currently I like all the sound coming of the company! If there is a profit then that will be an extra bonus.