You forgot to mention those that didn't sell at $1.70 because they are long and waiting for it to get to $5, foolish aye:cool:
Printable View
His record being what exactly? A comment quoted in the ODT as to 10s of thousands of tests in 2014?
Last I looked it was only June. I really wouldnt take that 175 odd tests as being too indicative of future gains and they are all including DD quite positive that things are going well.
Do you really think that the people running this company are not that clued up so that they cant recognise when something they say could come along later and bite them on the bum.
At the AGM for example.
And especially after the reaction to 10/1000 comment they would tend to be careful with their choice of words.
So along comes "strong demand", they could have said "reasonable, average, moderate, encouraging" but no, they elected to use "strong".
This to me means that something is up and as it is not the share price then it must be the sales.
Cheers
Miner
Ode to all the naive and under researched expectations dashed.
Quite an innovative company Pacific Edge, progressing a product or series of products from development in the Dunedin lab to commercialisation in the US, but it seems that some would think such a venture takes just a handful of months to achieve, and have similar attention spans to match.
Pacific Edge have not been marketing commercially in New Zealand for years as some have commented, yes they have sold a few tests in parallel with their research and development programme as a way of gaining feedback from specific urologists. Commercialisation effectively started in earnest when the user programmes finished last year and when they signed up their first DHB. Less than a year and ticking and it will take the time that it duly requires.
Similarly in the US, they’ve been going for less than a year and sales will come after they have the network providers on board and then start to progressively engage with the 4,000 or so insurers, HMO’s and corporate health plans associated with those network providers. Next and or in parallel comes some work with the LUG’s to achieve policy amendments. Then, after all that good ground work is well under way, then we will start to see sales.
This first year maybe the first eighteen months is not about sales figures, they are not important in the big picture, it’s the progress on the commercialisation timeline that is important, the sales will come when they come.
Pacific Edge have reaffirmed the five year goal, and it seems to me they are presently doing what’s required to achieve it just fine.
Thanks MAC for engaging in some intelligent conversation.
The following is straight off the website - http://pacificedge.co.nz/about-us/where-we-are/nz/
" Cxbladder was first introduced to the New Zealand market in 2011 through Pacific Edge Diagnostics NZ (PEDNZ), a wholly owned subsidiary of Pacific Edge Ltd.
PEDNZ manages the sales and marketing of the Cxbladder test in New Zealand as well performing testing and reagent qualification services through their centralised laboratory in Dunedin.
In 2012, PEDNZ signed a non-exclusive agreement with Labtests to sell Cxbladder within the Auckland / Northland regions. "
If the user programs which have finished were successful, wouldn't it lead to decent use of the product if the product really offered substantial benefits? Seemingly we haven't seen that?
If it's still to come then that's great news, but the slow uptake it NZ is mirrored in the US (and I'm led to believe the US will be more complicated) then maybe all is not as rosy as they're hoping?
I'm not stirring, I'm trying to verify information, test my theories, get a feeling for the future and learn something.
Cheers,
NBT
Surely you dont expect either one of these guys to do anything besides promoting their product.
Ive finally got a reply from my doctor friend in the States (she was consulting with an acquaintance who is in involved in marketing in the medical field)
He has confirmed that it is very difficult to break in to the US market and that the most successful co.s have come in on the back of another large company (in the case of the example he was giving it was Johnson and Johnson) The deal was done early in the show.
He said that in most cases going it alone, is a long hard road ,and requires throwing considerable money around.
He unfortunately didnt know about PEB specifically.
Of course the third option is a takeover. This is different from joining forces right from the start. If the co. in question is established it will attract a good price--if it is struggling it will be bargain basement.
He mentioned the new excise tax in the medical instruments field ,but didnt know if it pertained to medical tests.
He mentioned that everyone is having to sharpen their pencils with Obamacare in the wings
DYOR
if you listen to that radio interview that DD gave a while back, you can detect a level of frustration at progress made with DHB's. If I recall correctly, this dissonance led to the arrangement they subsequently announced with the outfit that is meant to hasten uptake across 4 DHB's.
remember, this is all in the recent past, and they have moved on since the end of March. We don't have any updates, other than the written, signed commentary in the Prelim.
Yeah, I think we all just need to watch over time Nextbigthing.
Perhaps Hancock's has the article at his fingertips, last year DD suggested that the US market is much more focused on the economics of health delivery and the use of health/dollar type metrics as assessment criteria. I hope that is proves to be the case in a cxbladder context, it's early days and time will tell, but I'm anticipating the lure of the one third reduction in work up costs will have some affinity with the insurers.
In a way though I don't mind Pacific Edge taking as long as is required in negotiations with Medicare and the HMO's as price point and policy application are important matters not to be rushed.
It would be nice to see a strategy presentation from PEB about here with their plan laid out in a way that we all can easily follow and tick off milestones against, let’s see.
many regards, Mac
There is a risk, a common one with startup ventures, and the difficulty for shorter term investors as Xerof point's out is how does one assess progress to allay associated concerns.
I agree with those that suggest PEB could do a little more to convey progress in a way that doesn't require a pHD or the hours of idle time that I seem to have.
One way of having a look at the costs is to assess against a forward scale, they have told us that costs will be around $14M for FY15. They have also estimated for us that gross margins will be around 81% toward the end of the five year plan, so costs should grow progressively over the five years from $14M up to around let's say $30M or so.
In terms of another capital raising being required, well let’s see, they don't need any revenues for 12 to 18 months. As a startup that pretty typical, and I suspect if PEB thought they needed more cash they could probably have raised it last year, the raising was well oversubscribed.
We may simply have to wait until the AGM to assess how things are going, the next check point after that would then be the November HY.
So there are a couple of assessment opportunities along the way. I would like to see quarterly reporting also for these very reasons too.
Anybody going to this? Posted on the PEB website today
Posted on June 6th, 2014
Are you attending the MTANZ 2014 Healthcare Congress in Auckland on Monday? If so, the Pacific Edge team will see you there!
"We’re constantly hearing that the current model of healthcare delivery is unsustainable. Innovation is no longer optional - it’s essential. It is also the path to success. If we can create value through earlier detection, more effective treatment, and new models of delivery – we will secure the future of our industry. We’ll also help patients worldwide to lead longer, more productive lives." MTANZ | NZHITC