I agree... a lot more talk of cash out in the past week and waiting for a reset.
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Implied in post #11363 above. AIR's most recent operating stat's do not suggest any slowdown is imminent, in fact quite the opposite. May's stat's out shortly will provide some more factual basis for consideration. Opinion, conjecture and anecdotal observation of a few flights is one thing, operational flight stat's are quite another. (This debate reminds me a bit of people in another thread saying real estate is about to fall off the edge of a cliff but the stat's keep coming out factually supporting at a national level a stable and rising house price trend).Quote:
If you are buying in at current AIR prices you are an optimist
I think its clear why some people want to take profits at this level as historically the SP has struggled to break $3.20 but I remain confident management are executing a very sound business plan and the underlying earnings are very supportive of the SP at this level based on long term PE averages.
Suggest you read yesterdays post again. Implied I would not agree with.
Now to get back to my original comment yesterday...I actually highlighted that it was not a suggestion about AIR operating stats showing a sign of deteriorating however I can see sentiment to the industry changing through media comments flowing from larger players struggling in this part of the cycle. Sentiment to the sector drives matters a great deal in the recent past with AIR share price....remember if you were following Jan last year you will note I mentioned the same line of thought concerning competition heating up for AIR. As it has proven to be the case over time AIR has managed this well.... although sentiment resulted in the share price cliff diving. Possibly a little more explanation will allow you to actual get my original post yesterday. Your comments suggest you did not. In summary my post was all about sentiment not FA or TA.
You may well be right however my point is sentiment has overridden a reputable company and sound management company share price time and again..simple defied FA common sense many times before and specifically with this share in recent history. Ask yourself what has changed? Is this the best share to hold in this point of the cycle for what you seek?
Many have been suggesting they are more compelling other options...
Eval all the best with some of the share I sold today:-)
Special dividends are just that. Special. If regularly paid they are not special. My guess is you will see an increase in regular dividend this year and possibly next year, all going well, but no special dividend in the foreseeable future. Time will tell.