45 new cases today.
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Edited - Off topic
And before we get into more South Auckland bashing, it makes sense to look at the spread of COVID in the three major affected Australasian cities:
Melbourne - first recently detected in St Kilda first, moved quickly to the poor areas in the North and Northwest of the city
Sydney - first detected in the Eastern Suburbs, moved quickly to Liverpool, Canterbury, and Mr Druitt in the South West
Auckland - first detected in Devonport, moved to Grey Lynn, then quickly into South Auckland.
There are a few confounding factors here. Firstly, those in the lower paid service and labouring industries tend to take the virus from a wealthy suburb (where they work) to one less wealthy (where they live). Secondly, it spreads best in damp houses with overcrowding.
I don't know where you guys all live, but I suspect a lockdown is a lot harder in Mangere or Otahuhu than it is in Parnell or the Eastern Suburbs.
I think we need to encourage and support, not vilify, South Auckland here. Or to put it another way - this outbreak is taking longer to settle because of inequality.
That has a lot to do with HGH. Really go start a Covid Thread.
Good to see some upwards action today:t_up:
Quick update on comparison group FY22 metrics and expected average growth rate looking ahead and some comments.
NAB 15.0 3% average expected growth rate
WBC 15.8 (I need to look into the growth rate some more with this one)
ANZ 12.9 5% average expected growth
CBA 18.2 3% average expected growth (This one is consistently the most expensive on forward metrics)
BOQ 15.0 3.5% average expected growth
BEN 12.9 -3% average expected earnings contraction, (sizeable discount to NTA, price to book, could be a few issues with this one)
HGH 14.4 6% average expected earnings growth.
On those metrics ANZ and HGH look like the best value to me and I am happy to hold HGH for the fully imputed dividends that none of the other banks provide, (only very partial imputation credits, at best, with Australian banks)
Comment - I think HGH will need to use its Covid provision this year, Auckland business's are doing it very tough.
Rating Hold. Disc Holding a decent sized stake but have reduced it somewhat.
Work in progress...I need to look into WBC's future growth rate some more.
ANZ is has been a BUY for while now but CBA is the darling of the group.
Best to buy on the AUS market to take advantage of there AUS carbon climate position.
NZ banks will soon become subject to the hold excess capital requirements of the terrified RBNZ.
A few days ago I reassessed the risk and reward of the market in general and rebalanced my portfolio with a much higher cash allocation. Still hold a good sized position in HGH. Its gradually got more and more clear as the weeks have dragged on that many Auckland business's are not going to survive this lockdown and there's less and less chance of any write-back of HGH's earlier Covid loan provisioning. If anything, I am wondering if its enough ?
What many who don't live in the Auckland region don't realise is that by the end of this week, in 2021 the Auckland region will have been locked down more weeks than not ! (21 weeks locked down, 20 weeks not). That brutal reality is really confronting as is the reality such an appalling situation is a real business killer ! What's even worse is that in the last week its become clear there is no early way out of this prison sentence as the numbers in the last few days have headed northwards. No way for others to truly understand how incredibly tough the situation is in the Auckland region without living it.
I read last week that over 13,000 business's shut their doors permanently in September, (just in that one month). Sorry don't have a link.
Opps sorry, it just feels that way. I've almost forgotten what its like to enjoy normal freedoms. I misinterpreted this article that said we'd had 20 weeks so far with no end in sight.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...7PRXPJ2FZMWTY/
20 weeks includes the weeks we had last year. My point about the effect on Auckland business's stands. The Auckland region has been the sacrificial lamb with its abundance of MIQ facilities for the rest of the country. Impossible to overstate what an exhausting thing one lockdown after another after another after another after another with no end in sight for this one is like. Its just drains your batteries day after day after day after...
I've always encouraged my clients to have money set aside for a rainy day but nobody ever expected it to keep raining like this. Those without extensive back-up resources will fail and the numbers who have done exactly that are already confronting and probably just the tip of the iceberg as most will be trying to cling on by their fingernails to any glimmer of hope they can see. Will HGH's existing Covid overlay provisioning be enough to cover expected losses in the Auckland region ? That's anyone's guess, I have no way of getting a read on that.
Maybe its good for HGH and will generate heaps more loan demand as they support Auckland business's through this like HGH supported dairy farmers though the dairy crisis ? On balance it can't be a good thing lending more money to troubled business's unless the underlying security value of the assets put up for security is rock solid.
You're not wrong. You either have extensive reserves to weather this seemingly endless s***-storm or you don't. Thankfully I do but vast numbers don't.
Fortunately you can now catch up with a mate for a drink or two and a good chat so that's definitely a meaningful improvement on how it was just recently and helps to keep sane.
I do feel for businesses in general and landlords. Everyone has bills that need paying and mortgage holidays still mean the mortgage needs to get paid back. However businesses that closed down so quickly, were they ever actually viable? I find some businesses survive off the smell of an oily rag.
In saying that and I hope I sound kind with this little bit…… I have owned very successful businesses and had enough capital that I could survive for over 6 months without any injections. I always feel people draw too much money out of their business to maintain their lifestyle. If anything, businesses never learn to budget properly and I hope this is the catalyst required to make businesses owners wake up. Hopefully I am right.