I found Roger's post very helpful in general terms, and I think I understand his position as:
There are self interested reasons for HBL managers and assessors to take a rosy view of the current situation.
Many of the properties securing the loans are worth less than they were when the loan was taken out and will be worth an awful lot less when/if the dairy industry gets less profitable. HBL's LVRs are inaccurate and optimistic.
This situation poses real risks to HBL profitability in the medium term and even more immediate risk to the SP as HBL is forced to take a more pessimistic provision for impairment and investors take fright.
Other people have different ideas - but how much difference will it make to the likely future profitability of HBL? Help please!
I have started to think about it but haven't got very far. Just for a first stab - there is $240M out. Some one will know how much HBL have put aside for impairment. Multiply by some number to account for biased assessment, bad LVRs, and the grief caused by a further deterioration in dairy, and then do DFCs or whatever you knowledgeable people do to calculate a shareprice.
What do you get? How can the calculation be improved?