Originally Posted by
Baa_Baa
I don't think they have misreported Craigs at all, they just turned broker speak (investment advisor they like to call it) into plain English. Craigs like other brokers have a lot of passive clients on standing instructions to maintain their portfolios to certain % levels of exposure to equities, depending on many individual factors. Nevertheless, it means 're-weighting' SUM to 0% and boosting RYM to 8% from 6% which is exactly what Sharechat and the Herald reported. Paraphrased that's sell SUM, boost RYM, sell the others if you have them. And, if your portfolio is managed by 'us', that's what we'll do (for you). They have a lot of clients as well.
This will take some time to flow through into a conclusive market response, especially with the macro economics that others have pointed out, but here we are only three days into an aggressive re-rate after a sustained SP decline (never buy a down trend?). It's not news that SUM has fallen behind expectations and the SP has clearly shown that for quite some time now, after a long sustained run up.
The big quit started 5/8 Oct 2018 (50 and 100 MA's breakdown). No amount of rationalising it will help, for example, given there are no divis anytime soon, one could have just flicked their holding at the 100DMA and sit on the sidelines again 5/4/19 patiently looking for a re-entry at much less cost and superbly better PE and ROI. But that takes real balls to bail from a long term hold, just to take advantage of what 'might' be a better capital re-entry and ROI at a lower price. The great uncertainty. Despite that, it's eventuating now.
I get it, selling a holder that's divi'ing the bank account is tough. It's gut wrenching even, as the SP grinds lower and one looks at how many years it will take for the divi to recover the capital losses, when there's no sign of the sentiment reversing that's killing our capital. It's so easy to rationalise into procrastination or doing nothing and pronounce everyone as ignorant including the market, while quietly relocating the held shares from much higher prices into the bottom drawer. Have we all got a few of these? They are the lessons, we need to keep them on the desk, front and top of mind, so we don't keep making the same stupid mistakes over and over again!
All the gnashing of teeth, spruiking, excuses and bewilderment here lately seems in denial of the plain facts, that SUM has for some years now suffered a declining % of new_sales to overall property portfolio, in the face of a staggering growth projection in new properties, so as that portfolio grows with no signs that new_sales has a recovery pathway, it's hardly a wonder that investor confidence is faltering. Their recent results make this clear and apparent. That is in addition to all the lesser inhibiting factors (imho) pointed out here recently.