Sp looks like heading to $1.60 by Christmas.
Enjoy the ride.
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Forget takeover - the game is over.
Sky is going to be operated for capital growth - that's clear based upon the collective thoughts and comments on this thread, right?
So no takeover, no dividends and no likelihood of a change in strategy?
Hear the sp crashing?
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRR :eek2:
It's as I pointed out earlier...Bowman and the rest of the Board have set the bar as to what they need to get the SP above now.
As soon as they rejected the opening bid of 23cps (which would have likely ended up 25cps+ if they actually tried to negotiate...) the Board were saying that they are highly confident, based on their insider knowlege, that Sky is worth much more than that.
If they are right, then the patient should be rewarded soon. The longer it takes for them to increase the quoted value of the business, the higher they need to get that quoted value to justify the rejection of the takeover offer.
So far, all we see is the usual - a sliding SP.
So the Board need to pull out something pretty big between now and the HY results to justify their decision in June.
I am confident that they can do a reasonable capital return with a generous dividend because they will have plenty of cash.
If they keep $25M from the property sale to fund the growth projects there will be plenty of money from operating cashflows to distribute to shareholders over the coming years.
But even though they can do it...will they do it?
If they play it ultra conservative then the SP may stay sub $2.30.
[QUOTE=Balance;924957]Forget takeover - the game is over.
Sky is going to be operated for capital growth - that's clear based upon the collective thoughts and comments on this thread, right?
So no takeover, no dividends and no likelihood of a change in strategy?
Hear the sp crashing?
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRR :eek2:
Nah, I for one, don't buy into the idea that no return to shareholders is likely or desirable. It's already been shown by various posters, including myself, that SKY have plenty of headroom to invest in the business and commence dividends. The two aren't mutually exclusive. If they remain tone deaf to investors then they risk a collapse in share price as both retail investors and institutions relinquish their positions. I could buy into the growth strategy if SKY and this Board had demonstrated an abilty to deliver. Which of course they haven't. Which is why making a some sort of return to shareholders from the considerable funds that they will have available to them is so vital to restoring investor confidence. Nothing demonstrates more clearly that the business is solid than paying a dividend.
So you bought somewhere between $1.81 and $1.84 on 10 Nov, confident that the property sale was happening "any day now", then next thing "it's a matter of time", and now it's "$1.60 by Christmas".
That's not very encouraging Balance, do you have some insights as to the state of the property sale that has given you pause for thought?
Looks like I made “dem gainz” on the 5K shares I bought today @$1.80.
See the question marks I put after the sentences in my post?
I am simply pointing out the scenario as painted by the collective comments on this thread.
And taking the p... out of a couple of posters who I believe have sold out and are now attempting to ramp the sp ever lower.
Am happy for the sp in the short term to drift lower - does not faze me one iota and looking forward to adding a few more before the inevitable property sale (& other deals being worked on in the background) occur.
All good. :t_up:
For sure.
And the Board/Management have done some things that have really disappointed. Outrageous actions really, and I do think Bowman will have to sling his hook by the HY results.
But now is not the time to bail imo if you have been holding a a while.
We have gone through the real crappy part of the turnaround...it is natural for patience to wear thin at this stage, but we are about to get tens of millions of dollars from the campus sale, we have $35M cash in the bank and are adding to that pile every month. Even if we fully funded ALL capex requirements this financial year from operating cashflow, we would still be adding ~$1.5M/month to our cash balance.
They will almost certainly earmark $25M from the campus sale for the growth projects instead of taking on debt to fund it. I do think we need to start usng debt in future, but perhaps just using some money from the property sale is the more prudent thing to do for now. Until we have further gains from the strategy execution anyway.
That means a more modest buyback/capital return, but it also means that the cash balance from operations grows at something closer to $3.5M/month.
Then by the Feb results, the cash balance would have grown by ~20M since the annual results. Even if they wanted to keep the $35M already sitting there in case other opportunities present next year, they could pay 75% of HY FCF generated = $15M.
If we assume that at the FY results they pay at least another $15M (maybe even $20M) then a total payment of $30M would be a great result for the owners of the business. Even a yield of 6% would be a market cap of $500M ($2.85/share).
I think the long suffering shareholders would be a lot happier with the Board (and possibly even forgive previous transgressions!) if they did something like this.
But with the vague statements we have had to endure for the last year or so, there really is no telling which way they will go.
I did a final Sky Nation survey for the new STB prior to release why Sky make the ‘finishing touches’.
One of the questions asked whether or not I would prefer to pay a $199 one-off fee to own the box or pay $10/month for as long as I am a customer.
I would be included to just pay the two hundred bucks and be done with it. Works out cheaper if you will be a customer for longer than 20 months.
But what does everyone think else think? Most people will probably just pay the $10 rental fee?
Crazy that the MYSKY fee should be more than the fee for the new STB!
Had the survey too Mr T
Did the same, been a customer for a long time, don't see me changing in the next 2 years or so- especially with this new STB, therefore would pay the $199 up front
Oh look at that NZME doing a buyback. Their market cap will be more than SkT soon.
Track how NZME has managed their capital effectively over the last 12 months to see market value appreciation.
Pooman, seriously sort it out, or go join the far queue.