Mate, I've seen some brave statements on here but that one stands out as one of the more memorable ones. Good luck.
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So suddenly clear down trends and momentum downwards mean nothing...and TA is useless...OKAY whatever...you gentelmen have a good day and good luck to you catching the falling knife at precisely the right point in time.
There's a thread for TA versus FA and NZ stocks anyway. Let's try and keep this to robust debate about PEB and where it's heading. Avoid clogging the thread.
I thought I'd add an observation. There is a massive unknown with PEB at the moment, i.e., what is preventing the sales uptake in the US?
That being the case FA is currently useless regarding PEB.
Also remember that TA has seen other companies in a similar situation to that which PEB faces at the moment.
yes, i know they are targeting urology groups, I am talking in a broader sense, giving Nz as an example. If Nz had 4 sales people in such a small country where they is only 40 - 50 urologists... You think a year would be enough. I am talking in the broader sense just getting the product out there...
yes u would see a urologist, we know that. But GP's do see a lot of patients with haemeturia, the more people know about the product the better. Once again, using Nz with a few urologists and a lot less doctors as an example, and possibly how it exactly translate to the states. Read between the lines....
The old technical vs "buy and hold" debate.
Firstly, I'm in Black Knat's camp and think at around 85cents this isn't a half bad value play (note: Value investing is very different from simplying buying and holding - i.e. I did sell out at $1.60 when it was overvalued).
Secondly, yes I agree that the chart appears to have been in a down-trend since February but its the future that matters, not the past. Does the past represent a good proxy for the future share-price? Well maybe, but then again maybe not.
If you look at the charts, the down-trend somewhat represents a shifting psychology/sentiment and a reversion towards the company's underlying fundamental value which in reality/hindsight shouldn't be much more than it was in October last year).
Investors got carried away last October and numerous punters jumped into this share on the hype. Several exciting announcements helped bolster the share-price however whilst these were evidence that the company was achieving some success in their commercialisation process, they weren't an indictment that the company was making actual cash-sales.
Now that we've seen the numbers it is evident that the whole thing got blown way out proportion and that investors expectations were well out of alignment with reality. The cold hard truth has set in.
So where are we at out? Well if you follow TA (i'm not a chart reader so I don't know what they're saying!) then sure the stock could still be in a down-trend (which is probably is) at least until some time as a fundamental floor is established. This could be quite a wide range, I would expect somewhere between 70-90 cents.
That being said a down-trend is a down-trend until its not (otherwise all stocks in a down-trend will head to $0.0) and given that no-one can accurately pick the bottom everytime then our only choice is to stay out and watch or to jump back in at a fundamental value that you are happy with.
There is no right or wrong until hindsight proves one or the other - it all depends on your investment style and horizon.
Personally I prefer Black Knat's viewpoint as if you back the company fundamentally and they start achieving their milestones then the share-price will inevitably go up (from where it is now).
Final point: I hate to remind everybody but from the conversations I've had it seems it was only the FA'ers who were in this stock when it underwent its meteric rise from around 50c to $1.60.
I haven't had one TA'er yet confirm that they were in this thing prior to the big bang.