Couta me old mate SUM a certainty to get to 7 bucks sometime soon but AIR as some momentum at the moment so will get to 3 bucks really soon
At LHR waiting for delayed Icelandair flight ,,,,pretty boring
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Couta me old mate SUM a certainty to get to 7 bucks sometime soon but AIR as some momentum at the moment so will get to 3 bucks really soon
At LHR waiting for delayed Icelandair flight ,,,,pretty boring
You never know you might get your 230 or less if the current excitement / exuberance pops suddenly
But the current hype is strong enough to keep if going
The god like aura of Chris and Johnny is worth heaps ...AIR seems to be winding the PR machine up to full speed
Now that their investment in Alitalia the Italian flag carrier has gone t*ts up will Etihad turn their attention to Cullen Airlines?
John Key can no longer sell them them the governments stake as he is not PM but as a director he can recommend shareholders big and small accept any offer from Etihad.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
The calm before the storm?
So what do you want the people who contributed to this "deluge of negativism" you described to do? Put ash on their foreheads because the market didn't follow in the short term their view of AIR's value?
I was one of the people who said that they see AIR as a good but cyclical company rather at its peak than at its bottom and therefore midterm rather going down than up, and I am still doubtful about the midterm outlook of tourism and the travel industry. In my view just too many indicators point currently towards a cyclical peak scenario.
How likely is oil to keep staying as low as it currently is?
How likely that increasing competition does not further reduce margins for all players?
How likely that tourists keep ignoring the deteriorating NZ environment and the increasing NZ prices?
How likely that another big terror event like 9/11, a volcano eruption, a war in SEA or a growing war in the Middle East might impact on tourist streams?
However - this does not exclude the stock price to keep climbing (for some time to come). Remember - markets are in the short term like a voting machine in a popularity contest, only long term are they weighing value and correctly assess risks.
If we look at AIR at the current price with a predicted forward PE of 8.8 and a predicted forward CAGR of 3.6 (though backward CAGR only 1.2), than they still appear to be reasonably priced (though not cheap) if we assume that things will continue as nicely as they did over the last 7 years or so. Question is just ... how often in the past have we seen linear growth over long periods in this industry?
Right, i.e. if history is any guide, than a downturn is over the next couple of years much more likely than a continuation of this climb. So, I guess it is just balancing risks vs. opportunities. The optimist keeps focussing on the (diminishing, but still good looking) predicted returns, the realist accepts that the likelihood of a downturn is increasing by the day. Interesting to note that psychology knows about the "optimism bias", but I never heard about a "realism bias".
Anyway - all the best with your investment, but if I would still hold, I'd currently see this as a good time to sell ...
DYOR.
All I will say BlackPeter is good luck waiting for your 80 cents target buy price :lol:
I am very happy to hold for long term dividend income. I am expecting $1 in ordinary dividends in the next 5 years and about 50 cents in specials as they complete their fleet replacement program. $1.50 / $2.70 = 55.55% return net to me in five years or an average of approx. 11.11% net per annum. Grossing that up for imputation credits 11.11 / 0.72 = 15.43% average gross annual return. I am very happy to sit and collect that for the foreseeable future and look forward to John Key's contribution to continuing to grow AIR N.Z. To be honest whether the market prices AIR shares at $2.00, 3.00 or whatever, I don't really care as I am holding for superb dividend income and will use that to enhance my lifestyle with more travel and fun. Good luck waiting for your bargain buy-in at whatever price you see value at mate.
Confirmation bias, endowment effect or both ;)?
NB - 4-traders puts them on a consensus target of $2.23 (this is a drop) and call them a "hold". Sure -analysts are not always right, but in my experience they are as well subject to "optimism bias" and more often too optimistic than too pessimistic.
Anyway - I wish you all the best ...
Forecasting 5 years ahead in aviation is a big call.
If you want to focus on the current earnings, current dividend yield and PE discount to regional peers and ten year average PE that's perfectly understandable in this industry, I agree but one thing that's undeniable is that they're finishing up their major capex program in FY 19 and on the balance of probabilities the stock will generate tremendous amounts for free cash flow in FY20- FY22. What the industry conditions will be in those years as you quite rightly suggest is almost anyone's guess.