Justice can not come from an impulsive " Jury " RB.
Give plenty of thought to the standing of those, giving " evidence " of their behaviour over an extended period.
Who has "proven " that they can do what they say they will ????
Printable View
Percy has them both as far as I know. :-)))))
Always the choice is yours..
There is never a need to time-stamp an investment decision.
Like, on Monday I'll do this or that. Baloney. Things change, it looks likely today but the next day circumstances change. Act only when the criteria match ones buy or sell conditions. That's called having a trading strategy, it's not just about choosing what to buy or sell, it's also about when,
The FA's reckon it's fair value and the chart says it's sitting on decent support. Buying now is a gamble that both may be right. A few cents higher would confirm both, but a few cents lower would also confound their optimism.
Let it unfold, as it will, and have a strategy that you can execute at the moment in time that it is triggered. Not before.
It's all a bit of a gamble isn't it? I don't have a future ball and don't have many certainties about what happens tomorrow and in the future. Thank you for pointing it out that I am, in your view, in the wrong play ground.
The fact that the Heartland share price is under $2 ($1.70 as I write this) is not indicative of anything. Have a bonus issue of shares such that the number of shares increase to ten times the number we have now and the share price would drop to 17c. Cancel shares to the extent that the number on issue is only one tenth of what we have now and the share price would jump to $17. Keep the business the same, change the number of shares on issue and the share price can be engineered to be anything you like. But all such changes have no effect on the underlying business, or a new investors expected returns.
Not entirely true. Many of those retained profits are being used to expand Heartland's business in AustraliaQuote:
keeping profits in kiwi land...
Cheaper is always better from a new investment perspective. In my view $1.70 is within the fair value range, but not particularly cheap.Quote:
I wish it was slightly cheaper yet it's a good gamble isn't it
I need to qualify what I just said then. If Percy's increasing dividend projections come to pass, then you could argue HBL is now good value. But IMO you have to consider other possible future scenarios as well.
For example, what would happen if the milk priced tanked again? A couple of years back when this happened, Heartland issued a special press release explaining that their dairy exposure was only 7% of the portfolio. As it happened Heartland backed their farmer customers, the milk price recovered and any potential problem never materialised But now the dairy portfolio is up to 8% of all company loans. And there is no guarantee that if there was another milk price fall that things would recover as quickly. I am not suggesting here that the milk price will definitely tank again. Nevertheless you might want to invest in Heartland, assuming there is a one in ten chance (say) that it will. Even if the chance is small, the effect could be significant. So this is one scenario you cannot ignore IMO.
Another scenario is that Heartland could bid for UDC. They have already said they would need to issue new capital to do that. It is likely that new capital would be discounted below the current share price. When you invest, all the possible alternative outcomes need to be considered.
SNOOPY
Yes it is a bit of a gamble.. Also I do not have a future ball.. My response to RB was an answer to him.. Not promising him any certainties.. Just hopefully giving him some of my many years of experiences..
Do not understand how or when I even mentioned you... !!!!..
Wasn't heartland planning on another cash issue? If so would the future dividend not be diluted? I do think HBL is a fair price for now, but who knows what the future will bring for the share price.
Not sure if HBL is on record planning another "cash issue". But for me it is clear that a significant portion of their growth is from Reverse Mortgages where, at this early stage in that business, the cash flows out faster than it flows in. Winner69 & Snoopy have pointed out the "capitalised interest" in recent posts and worried about it. But I think it is mainly from the fast growth in RM and perfectly understandable.
Time will tell how HBL will fund the fast growth in RM. Cash issue, bonds, DRP, SPP or a mixture of all ? Who knows ? But they will need cash to grow the business. No doubt.