as you mentioned the volumes going through are no where like the buying before the newyear from nzo but significant parcels are changing hands.
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as you mentioned the volumes going through are no where like the buying before the newyear from nzo but significant parcels are changing hands.
[QUOTE=the machine;239967]well put.
nzo's website re tui, inturn average tapis price in usd$ / nz$ gives good indication of profit margin pre tax
Would be very interesting to see predictions for the last quarter profit-which NZO will announe in the next couple of weeks .
I remain optimistic that the profit for the 1st 6 months will be more than enough for another special dividend !
[QUOTE=fish;240132]
ppp pre-emptive defgence re possible takeover gives good indication re earnings - but of course nzo have kupe to fund and that would have used nz$20 - 25m capital in last quarter.
thus earnings in last quarter would be about same as costs.
1st quarter was huge - will it be enough to warrent a special dividend?
my own view is no - any dividend to wait until full year would be best.
m
also fish - you have said you have a very large nzo holding - but made no comments that we are aware of re the ppp play - do you have any ppp and commerntsre pppplay?
regards
M
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Cheers
Hi Machine
I dont own any PPP .
The current ppp play so far is clearly a win win situation .
It is a low risk investment to accumulate more oil reserves .
I do believe nzo should keep accumulating at current prices but should refrain from paying more than they need-in the current market many holders of ppp may be forced to sell at below the underlying value of cash plus assets .
thanks fish
of course nzo could not count them as reserves until they t/o ppp and to do that will take a lot more than
"paying more than they need-in the current market'
as regards ppp sellers being forced to sell - expect these are long gone and nzo snapped up some real bargain shares [including a lot at below ppp cash position.
see on the ppp thread a report of a lot of small trades on asx and since nzo have not reported any more purchases beyond the 1% trigger then sounds like someone else is building a stake, ready to make a tidy profit.
if nzo are to t/o ppp then the sooner they aquire the 19.95% pre-takeover level [at a low cost the better.
tapis is trading at a significant premium to wti and trending up -
the window of opportunity for a cheap t/o may soon be clouded by a rising oil price, quarterly reports and/or new tui drilling campaign - all of which will add to ppp price.
reindeer gas development change of decision by santos last week brought corvus back into play [an otherwise stranded gas asset that is 400m + thick as open at depth
M
I have held NZO since it was .36 and would buy a ton more but I'm at a loss as to why the price remains around 1.20 in the face of every oil index looking like a rout coming along?
I know all the forward futures contracts are $50+ now but why does everyone insist that OPEC cuts will keep oil in the mid 30's when history proves they are unable to hold prices when supply is over and above demand.
At Cushing in Oklahoma they are running out of storage and the same must be close for tankers. In the US right now you can't give away petrol and use is dropping month to month.
I've noticed in the past that share prices in NZ don't always follow overseas indexs and I put that down to NZ investors showing a lot more resistance to panic selling but still my question is "Why does the SP of NZO not fall dramatically along with the price of oil"..........................is it the cash position?
Conoco Phillips came out with some ugly numbers on Friday and the theory is other big oil companies will possibly do the same.
Only my opinion of course but I would say it relates to the fact that of the three main projects the vast majority of Capex has already been spent. This leaves large cash reserves, only opex costs to worry about which are low enough to generate a profit even with the price of oil , coal etc at low levels versus last year. For example the operating costs for the Tui field are less than $US 20. The Opex for the coal mine is about $35 US. The Kupe numbers are more problematic but they have gas offtake agreements at "market", which suggests they will have to be profitable for the long term.
Then there is the upside potential - commodity prices recover, more oil / gas found in exploratory areas, coal reserves set to increase when extra seam drilled etc.
This company prints money currently and will be revalued when investor sentiment turns eventually away from zero risk zero return investing.
Well that does make sense and I guess it does put a floor on the SP
Also noticed that several analysts rate it as undervalued (not that I put much store in that) Sitting on the side lines waiting as there is going to be more shocks coming out of the US with alot of people expecting the Nov lows to be tested. If that happens then some investors may be frightened out of NZO.