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Thanks guys, you're far too kind.
Let's get back to HBL.
http://www.4-traders.com/HEARTLAND-B...18/financials/
I haven't looked for a while so was pleasantly surprised to see average analyst projections are forecasting some pretty impressive growth for FY19 from an estimated 12.1 cps this year about to be concluded shortly to 13.6 cps in 2019. WOW, that's 12.4% EPS growth and if achieved would be a huge year of growth for HBL !
At $1.75 that puts them on a forward PE of (175 / 13.6) of just 12.8 for a company growing nicely. Forecast growth for FY20 is 14.4 / 13.6 = 5.9% Average expected growth over the next two years is 9% which is north of what I was thinking the other day when I posted I think its fair value at $1.77.
Looks pretty good value to me in an otherwise (with a few notable exceptions) fully priced market.
Something not quite right?
Reported (HBL Accounts) EPS F17 was 12. cents (NZX says 12.1 cents) and yet consensus F18 forecast is also 12.1 cents ....no growth in EPS
Just as well we look forward eh ...even if the future numbers are based on assumptions that are just big guesses or however you described it the other day.
12.1 does seem a bit low doesn't it, I have them on 12.5 estimated. Time will tell which guess is better :)
P.S. I bought a few more today to add to my existing modest sized holding. Fair - Fairly good value at this price I think.
A very valuable resource.
https://buffett.cnbc.com/
Enjoy:)
Luckily I sold all of mine at the peak of US$326,110 per share back in February. [:t_up: -- if only]
They are down to US$286,700 per share -- down $900 in a day. -- But still up 11.4% (vs 12.6% SP&500) over the last year so I wouldn't be complaining too much if I did hold one or two of them.
Global Dairy Trade Auctions - prices down in 7 of the last 9 auctions / Heartland shareprice - down in 6 of the last 9 comparable periods.
The reasonable correlation between the two is still in place....but probably only a casual thing but interesting
Recently in its report on New Zealand's financial stability the Reserve Bank noted that most dairy farms are currently cash-flow positive, but remain vulnerable to any possible downturn in prices and agriculture shocks. "Reducing this bank lending concentration risk requires more prudent lending practices," they said
Just a few observations ...no conclusions made
Interestingly and reasonably strong correlation that's existed for quite some time in my opinion. Disappointing to see HBL share price under quite a bit of pressure despite a very strong day on the NZX, spooky possums how dairy declines correlates to SP even though dairy farmers are all good now.
Some might be getting spooked about the economy ...GDP figures not that flash and GDP been declining for a few quarters now.
Jeff often says Heartland fortunes are tied to overall health of the Economics my (GDP growing or not)
But as long we get to the end of August without dropping any more we’ll be OK
A comparable chart with ANZ.NZ,or WBC.NZ shows HBL is still suffering the rub off from The Australian banks,yet does not face their issues..