Phaedrus, can you give us your views on NZO's chart? Cheers mate.
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Phaedrus, can you give us your views on NZO's chart? Cheers mate.
Here you are Doc. NZO remains in a downtrend that has lasted for 5 months so far. Trend-following active investors would have exited this stock back in July when the confirmed trendline was broken (large red arrow). Such investors would not yet have re-entered and would perhaps be waiting for a break above the current confirmed (red) trendline before doing so.
Those attempting to trade the secondary trends that comprise the downtrend could be using trendline breaks to time their entries and exits. The magenta and light-green lines mark these secondary trends, with small red and green arrows marking the associated buy and sell points. These traders would currently be holding NZO but would be watching it very closely - current price action being just a gnat's eyelash away from breaking the current confirmed trendline (light green).
Since mid October, NZO has been forming a "Symmetrical Triangle Bottom". 43% of these formations break out to the upside, with 57% breaking out to the downside, so they are of very little predictive value. An upside breakout would give a Buy signal while a downside breakout would give a Sell signal for short-term traders.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NZO1214.gif
Thanks Phaedrus. Your charts and comments are fantastic!
Oh, and welcome back. Where have you been? Holiday?
Yes, you are right about the profit. But as stephejame says, the 'cashflows' are more important.
So yeah...add back $16 to your original figures. Cash flow per barrel is more like $40 NZD...which is still around $150,000 per day in the bank account at 30,000 barrels.
Well, to be honest, NZO wouldnt continue with development unless its going to deliver positive value to shareholders. Ie a positive NPV.
An NPV is based off a discounted rate which shareholders require. Its widely known that using some portion of debt is desirable as the interest is tax deductible and that interest is requires less risk than shareholders funds. This is shown in MM proposition.
NZO wont go out of business anytime soon with KUPE coming online. That answers that. Pike should still deliver a reasonable profit unless coking coal gets really hammered!
Your talking poo's that dividends can only be paid from profits! As long as they meet the solvency test and they're generating positive cashflows, dividends can be paid. In the long run yes...profits may catch up with cashflow situation. But again...its the cashflows that matter.
FYI Tui cost NZO around $45 million and has so far delivered in excess of 3 times that cashflow.
From todays update to NZOG website ....
"Given the continued performance of the field (TUI), the Operator AWE has advised that the proven and probable (2P) reserve estimate can remain at 50.1 million barrels, without the extra well."
Does any one know the significance of 2P staying the same without the extra well?
If the existing 3 wells can provide 50.1 and that had been previously expected from 4 wells, then could this be possibly be taken to be an upgrade by 1/3 (i.e. potentially nearly an extra 17 million barrels). Sounds extreme, and surely this would have to be officially notified...
This is good Wilkins, very good. It means no capital expenditure like the market was expecting to get the addition reserves. But it also leaves upside for more reserves by adding the extra well. I wouldnt think it would be 17 million barrels...as they are only drilling into an existing reservoir. Dont quote me on that though, maybe someone else can comment.
PPP certaintly likes the news, nice buyer or two building now at 25 cents.
Suggest you read the following :
http://www.worrells.net.au/factsheet..._Dividends.htm
Cheers.
Maybe the decision of deferring the final Tui production well is because with oil at $45, its better to keep it in the ground, as many people have suggested.
So instead they can keep exploring in the meantime, and any new finds made will take a few years to develop, by which time oil should have recovered.