Something for bears to mull over with their coffee (and cash in the bank) this morning.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...ear-2020-04-15
Get ready for the biggest stock rally yet post lockdown.
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Something for bears to mull over with their coffee (and cash in the bank) this morning.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...ear-2020-04-15
Get ready for the biggest stock rally yet post lockdown.
This outlook is one of near total insanity...
I wouldn't even put a 1% chance of this outlook happening...
Things are going to be bleak for a long time...
Things like international travel are well off the cards...
There is no pent up demand.. people are using all their money just to survive not working and paying Bill's...
The debt crunch is going to hit, people wont be able to loan money as easy now.... unemployment is exploding and lots of businesses will go under...
Balance is delusional and usually wrong...
:cool:cc
So very very satisfying to have some posters here in Ignore - garbage posts and the stench belong in the trash can.
:t_up:
The article says that 65% of the current rally is a short squeeze. Bearish investors getting it wrong and having to buy shares before they lose too much. Agreed the unprecedented money printing makes currency worthless eventually. When faith is lost it could happen quickly, maybe already has and the rally is proof of that. But we only went into lockdown at the end of March, the markets might only have a good idea of the effects of the lockdown when US companies report Q2 earnings and recovery from the rebound from the lockdown in Q3. Historically markets have had a second leg down as reality hits. Ironic Bull is a Bear and Balance is a Doomsayer (or a cheerleader for the markets depending on which way you look at it.)
I have heard from retail brokers that they have been experiencing 3-4 times the normal number of new applications for the last few weeks. I have also had many people enquire about investing and how to get started in the last week. Doesn't fill me with confidence based on the usual sayings.
Also likely people are bored at home and can't gamble on sports, so the stock market is taking its place.
Doomsayer? A person who predicts disaster?
Come on, Aaron - I am neither a bull nor a bear if you care to read my posts - just a cautious investor who attempts to provide some balance and perspective on the views out there.
You should be aware by now that there are certain posters on this site who are posting absolute doom and gloom while happy to buy stocks from the panicked stricken inexperienced or naive investors to flick out for a quick profit. One was caught out just two days ago and banned.
Not sure about that, maybe just keen avoid fueling conflict and the deeply help opinions on each side of the fence.
I’m in the bear camp, bewildered at the disconnect between markets and economies. Regardless of monetary policies it’s hard to imagine a world in a month or two that isn’t suffering on many levels. There are so many unknowns but one thing that can be factored in is unemployment and business losses, people won’t be spending as much (even the ones that still have jobs) and relative to NZ the hit on GDP re tourism and tourist spending is in itself significant.
Strange to say this but the overvalued share market is not an indicator on the economy but at some stage I imagine the two will align.
There are two equally rational ways of looking at the market at the moment. Its arguably relatively over-priced (recession, job loss blah blah) and it is arguably relatively under-priced {low interest rates, QE blah blah}. In the short term though, the market is driven by psychology.