your on the money ... travel doesnt mean jewellery wanes as it not a TV...inflation can hit it though as its left over.. Girls love to show off stuff...and some boys..
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your on the money ... travel doesnt mean jewellery wanes as it not a TV...inflation can hit it though as its left over.. Girls love to show off stuff...and some boys..
Hey Mudfish, its really hard to work out looking at the historicals aye. Maybe others have better data. Some years are really out of whack due to the closing of stores and associated one off costs.
2018
HY= $8.7M
FY= $31.7m
2019
HY= $19.5M
FY= $16.5M
2020
HY= $21.4M
FY= $3M
2021
HY= $39M
FY= $45.2M
2022
HY est= $41.9m
FY est= $50.8m
These are Aus$. So if FY22 is $50.8m NPAT that's EPS of 0.13.
At your target P/E of 12 that's current Aus SP today of 12*0.13 A$1.56 (like you say) or NZ$1.66
But remember they had $70m cash at last balance date so maybe $80m today. That's $0.20 per share. Thats A$1.76 or NZ$1.87 target price.
Maybe STU wins the great race to $2 after all.
If you are worried MHJ are selling heaps and heaps and it is never to be repeated they actually arnt. Their revs and GP margin have been fairly steady over last 6 years. MHJ just stopped closing stores and now pull through a much better bottom line.
2022 est 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Revenue $ 575,898.42 $ 556,500 $ 492,060 $ 569,500 $ 575,539 $ 582,975 $ 551,127 Gross Profit $ 365,695.50 $ 348,900 $ 298,204 $ 353,032 $ 366,882 $ 368,943 $ 351,276 GP Margin 63.5% 62.7% 60.6% 62.0% 63.7% 63.3% 63.7%
As per above. They wont even be selling as much in est FY22 as they did back in 2017!!
Gee heaps of market share to make up huh? Maybe this is the bottom of the cycle?? 2 bucks easy!!
Cheers Rawz. There's my first mistake, I was NZD. I will have a think about where cash fits into all of this. Cash reserves are obviously good but that isn't profit. Awesome you mention STU as I can't get the SP to look any better than MHJ. Going on the information we have today, I'm thinking both companies were good buying $1.30 but these horses have already run. I'd like to buy but don't want to gamble on the unknown. You've motivated me to revisit STU anyway. Thanks
Rawz - aren't you meant to use Comparable EBIT as the real profit figure
Goodness knows what this Comparable EBIT is --- maybe a nice number they pull out of thin year?
I've got it in my spreadsheet but dont really look at it. Not smart enough to dissect it. Leave that sort of stuff to the masters like yourself, W69 ;)
Like you say, can easily be pie in the sky stuff.
A big part of my MHJ investment philosophy is the new management came in to right size the business and build online offering. That as you know consumes a lot of time. Now that multi year part is largely done lets see what they can do to grow sales. They only recently hired a digital guru for the exec team.. Rob Fyfe moved to chairman.. happy to give them a crack.
Seems to be getting hammered on the ASX, any reason?
1.30 ....:eek2:... anyone else ... 1.30 ... it hasnt worked so far.
just cant find a reason for a down grade yet...
chart shows a pullback required...
what say you winner?
on ASX going as fast as KMD
some profit taking winner... the chart says sell if you bought is well under a dollar..
1.30 would be a BUY
everytime we have put a pin on the chart it hasnt come near it for more than an afternoon or less.
yes winner we do but one cant be greedy and the rest of the investor might already be happy to hold and go higher..
1.30 looks like a buy on the chart... 1.40 more likely.
then fill in and build up. Jewellery is often bought when people travel. Not saying MHJ is in this category but other kinds of ethic jewellery has over the millennium been bought as one travels aboard such as the grand tour or the invasion of geographic areas with some looting going on...
Treasure hunters and tomb raiders.. ect ect
the hoarding of trinkets has been going on in the bazaar since traders travelled from one city town to another..
Walltzing, have you just gone a buying spree? Big volume!!!
well we stated here this morning that 1.40 would be a buy. A Zoom meeting last night discussed SKC, MHJ, some local retailers and US big Tech.
I had voiced last year to buy more MHJ but others saw it as a big risk...
Clearly stated 1.40 for a buy... 1.30 for buy a few MORE...
that 2 million is an off market trade. removed it from the vol?
others can comment on if they consider SP as retail daily. Orders are often marshalled by the brokers. A SP is usually i thought not retail but registered off market.
The SHAZ are buying...no chance of 1.40 unless we get a risk shock somewhere..
SKC was seen as the opportunity now and likely to be so if the big sick arrives for a while yet.
So tomorrow s when we find out how much more than 'well above $44.6m' is
Suppose the person who bught share at A$1.75 the other thinks is heaps
back to 150.... no chance...
here we go some profit taking .. 120 G under the auction hammer..
Bit confused --- they say H122 EBIT be more than H121 of $44.6m
Let's say $50m ....but they reported $58.9m in H121 --- so are profits actually going backwards
Must be some adjustments somewhere