Pretty picture on the ASX
Attachment 9273
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Pretty picture on the ASX
Attachment 9273
Yeah very hard bit tops ad bottoms with this one. Just stick with your target price and go accordingly.
Thought of topping up some this morning but price jumped too fast and was out of my target price range pretty soon. Instead picked up some SML at the open when it was still down a bit.
I'm still bullish on this thing but the current price action suggests a short-term top. Too many new longs stranded up above $8 will cap it for a while. Buy below $7 if it ever gets there..
The business radio programme said this morning that the update at next weeks AGM will be worth while and Im picking that it will be a very exciting and interesting affair .
On an slightly unrelated note, the goat guys seem to be going well.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/far...ue-last-season
$18/Kg for milk solids - wonder how that compares with cows economically for farmers?? Turnover $2.45m per supplier on average.
cow = 377kg milk solids a year.
goat= 10.92 kg mild solids per year.
34 goats = 1 cow milk production .
Therefore cost of feed and space for 34 goats compared to 1 cow= 200% better ???
Umh 'Six months into its first milking season, the 550 goats are producing 0.21 kilograms of milksolids per head a day' So they only milk them for 55 days/yr?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...ats-makes-en-e
Yeah, seems to be the most common approach these days.
From http://www.dgc.co.nz/farming.cfm
DGC farmers utilise different farming systems. The first is a free range grazing system where the goats are taken to their feed. The more common system is when locally grown grass and forages are brought directly to the goats who are housed in open sided free stall barns. The goats still have exposure to natural lighting and fresh air can move freely through the shelter or barn.
Why discuss goats in A2 thread?
paid posters funded by the Goat lobby.
Wonder if a2 will follow xero and leave nzx. The Ausies own most of a2 now don't they?, The sp manipulation from the 60,000 holder, once the 30,000 holder, up and down and up and down all afternoon is enough to rattle the cage and scare any sh into selling. Or a take over bid by the Americans or the Chinese for $9 a share before it gets too well known in USA. $7, $8, $9 per share was just a dream to me 33 months ago. What sp in 33 months from now $17, $18 or $19 when Kiwis own less than 5%, another dream? Look forward to positive AGM in 4 buss. days :t_up:. PS Correct me if I'm wrong.
What happened to the huge daily volumes?
Trading today looks anemic compared to the multi-million units traded every day.
Smells like the big holders have taken the opportunity to play the game and lighten into the volumes?
Have you noticed a very very slight up trend in the last 2 days:), on the ASX chart. Slightly higher highs and higher lows:t_up:. What do you think, back over $8 next Tue. afternoon after all the up grading and good news. Get in now folks, before it's too late, only 3 an a bit days to go :D.
Arrr no, here we go again, where will it end, up up an away :t_up:.
IMO a2m/atm is firming up re the AGM presentation next Tues.
News from across he ditch, Macquarie rates ATM as "Outperform" and raises target price to NZ 8.40.
Source: HotCopper.
Volume is very low these last few days,no large commitment,some are waiting to see whether the forward comments are going to be positive enough.
That hits the nail right on the head. SP has had a tremendous run and is sales growth this year strong enough to underpin how the shares have already performed ? That's the $64,000 question as they say, (although I'd wager quite a few on here have quite a bit more than that amount riding on it).
Disc: Currently don't own but have a modest stake in Synlait. Might consider buying again when these have de-risked a bit / sales numbers come out to justify the stratospheric SP growth.
On ASB in research Morningstar puts ATM’s value as 3 average, while XRO’s value is 5 lowest. Also lower risk 2 with ATM than 3 average for XRO. Both have growth 1 highest. Interesting. Morningstar do not provide a valuation on ASB but it probably won’t be long before they do cover it.
https://www.asb.co.nz/asb-securities...e-atm-nzx.html
Would have thought the valuation is whatever someone is prepared to pay...
If you're prepared to pay only $3...probably need to accept that 99.9% of people would not sell to you for that price.
Even my rather conservative cashflow modelling is coming up with something over $5...and that's with a HEFTY discount rate to account for the risk. If I apply a more normal discount rate, coming up with something around the current share price.
Disc: hold (again).
Watching closely on the sidelines for Tuesdays comments, I will be back in if the forward projections look good,otherwise happy to let the dust settle.
Needs a wee rest.
I take it you have read last weeks info.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2017111...38mqwxnyjp.pdf
How much extra are they likely to say at the AGM considering this is so recent except for details of any dividend in the near future.
You will notice from the presentation that a2 are now making a point of saying their products are A1 protein free. The forward ramifications of this will be huge in the future. IMO
discl. Hold
Quite a lot more expected IMHO.....including;
- first look at 1st half FY2018 figures
- forecasts for full year FY 2018
- profitability projections and news re possible dividend or other investments
- responses to Snoopy's A2 milk supply concerns (just kidding - this is not really likely, but you never know!)
And off she goes.....over $8 bucks again.
Looking forward to tomorrow morning's announcement.
No room for under performance tomorrow.
I see another outperform coming though... Will have to wait and see whether or not the current SP has that fully priced.
Very healthy sign not to see the price getting ahead itself day before the ASM or else it might get sold off tomorrow, which will be the case of "sell on news" rather it might be "buy on news" tomorrow.
https://nzx.com/announcements/310633
Just what the doc ordered....
"Synlait Auckland Officially Opened"
FYI The AGM can be accessed online here https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/register/a2MC17
I will see you there for a coffee with A2milk. :)
What time does it kick-off / will we see an announcement?
Haha my milk is starting to froth
is anyone else a bit nervous that they have not released any result details before the meeting...?
Could it be they are setting up for a surprise on the downside...?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...732/268930.pdf
If you are a shareholder, use the online portal to attend the AGM @virtualmeeting.co.nz
They released at 12:40 last year, so evidently they don't release until the beginning of the AGM.
All in a holding pattern until - presentation. Last trade at market open.
Looking pretty good to me.
A big read that report, but 262 mill ytd quite a nice figure.
65%+ growth for 4 months..... that is quite high from the same 4 months last year. Am I reading that correct
Looks like a great result on the numbers in the reports. Well up on expectations...will be curious to see how it impacts now.
And yes, trading seems to have been halted.
EBITDA up 122% on the corresponding 4 months.
Not bad.....
I love how us Kiwis say "not bad" while the Aussies type in hyperbole ;)
Love that sweet sublime voice of Geoffrey while he reads me good results... I am in love
That's a massive result. SP has factored this in though? Let's see the reaction :)
They beat the already bullish Goldman Sachs forecasts and they believe the target price is A$7.25 (NZ$8.15ish). Current NZX price $8.12 seems about right.
Is it a good meeting? Can't hear or see anything on my Virtual thing:confused:.
Full presentation on NZX.Assumed you would have that. Babidge just going thru that now.
:t_up::t_up:
The below is all what you need especially Revenue and NPAT numbers...They would be $1 Bln revenue very easily for this FY and NPAT of at least 200ml. That translates roughly to 28c forward EPS and apply what PE you like, I myself like 40 or 50 and that gives a range of $11.20 to $14.00. Happy to hear others viewpoint.
NZ$ ml 4M18 4M17 % Change Revenue 262.2 155.2 68.90% EBITDA 78.4 35.5 120.80% PBT 78 35 122.90% NPAT 52.3 22 137.70%
Great virtual meeting, no problem getting into it.
Sorry got carried away thinking those numbers are for 3 months but they are for 4 months.
So my revised numbers are Revenue of $850ml and NPAT of $175ml and that gives revised forward EPS of 24c. Based on this my revised price range based on PE of 40-50 is
$9.60 - $12.00.
Agree SB9 I was being a tab conservative with a humble 30 PE..... exciting times to be a holder.
Good solid numbers. Shareholders should be happy with that.
Geez... there are some awful questions coming in...These people do not listen at all.
Geoffrey is bright red answering these mongoloids questions about Fresha Valley.
I wouldn't think so....large numbers are part of bigger growth yet to unfold.
One thing quite distinctive I've noticed in Geoff's tone of voice this morning at ASM re the court case with Lion, he sounded extremely positive and bullish that they're going win this case and fight aggressively to achieve that outcome.
Thank you for posting the link Silu, it worked well. It wasn’t on my to-do list today but it was time well spent. My first AGM and it was a virtual one and I didn’t have to worry about parking in central Auckland, much easier. Technology is amazing. I just had to make my own cup of tea afterwards, no virtual cup of tea yet.
Glad to hear... my apologies. The original post has now seemingly disappeared, however someone posted they got nervous this morn and sold 10k ATM shares and I mistakingly thought it was you. Apologies and relief.
Check out the ATM website as the video of the meeting may appear there. V impressive.