Originally Posted by
Baa_Baa
Personally I think tonight has been more enlightening than many months of discussion, one side versus the other without having really known where each side is truely coming from. Both are right, it just depends on ones circumstances which discussion groups are notoriously ignorant of. Until now.
So where to from here?
Retirees and others who bought HBL long ago are sitting on multiples of capital gains and enjoying the recurring EPS growth and sustained increasing dividends. Their advice is to be taken in context with those circumstances. It is understandable and completely relevant that they would ignore capital fluctuations while the underlying fundamentals support their investment decisions and income oriented profile.
Capital sensitive investors will be out, despite the dividends as the capital losses outweigh the income generated. They will also be looking for a re-entry at fair or under value SP, exposing themselves to capital upside and income (dividend) streams. Until that changes. Then they will forgo dividends by selling and locking in capital gains.
Traders will also be out, they will have exited months ago, but still be looking for a re-entry while the fundamentals suggest HBL has a future SP upside appreciation. They probably are astute enough to be able to pick a re-entry at some SP that is within coo-ee of a bottom. They will ride out a bottom if they enter too early and ride up an appreciation in the SP as long as it goes up, before exiting near the next top.
There are almost certainly scenarios in between these extremes.
My point is that day to day here we enjoy a diverse discussion, including advocacy for HBL, counterpoints which seem agnostic, ambivalent or even antagonistic. Overriding all of that is ones circumstances, which hopefully is the defining point in determining which path ones follows, assuming independent thought.
There is no one right path for all of us, it’s about deciding which path is right for you.