Always better to believe what you read on sharetrading forums
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Where would Forsyth be getting informative information from to come up with their analysis is that behind paywall?
Its a simple choice.
Who are you going to believe ?
1. The company directors and management working at the coalface who released year to date financial performance that's tracking ahead of earlier guidance
2. An analyst at Forbar who has had a dim view on HGH for quite some time and does not appear to have updated that view for a range of emerging factors including but not necessarily limited to:-
a) Recent Covid Vaccine news and the possibility of widespread vaccinations in 2021
b) Success in by and large keeping Covid 19 out of the community
c) Improving business confidence
d) Lower than expected defaults
e) HGH stating they have not had to dip into their previously provisioned Covid overlay reserve.
I'm with ST team :)
Personally I wanted to move some of my OCA to HGH after Jan results so go team FB!
Suppose the analysts at Forbar get paid a fair bit ....$150k to $200k?
Quite a responsible and tasking job
That Chelsea seems highly regarded ..
Strong end to week with a $1.60 close .... highest close since share price collapsed when covid struck
Getting closer by the week to beagles target of $2.05
Close over $1.50 today?
That's at least back to what it was early March
I reckon the market will get a bit irrational and exuberant after Christmas and we will see $2.30 which would make it really overvalued
That'll be when real value investors will sell .... buy low (undervalued) sell high (when over valued) .....and then come back for more when sensibility returns and share price back to 180 or something.
Enjoy the next few months anyway ....unless Forbar are right and then we are for a big disappointment
Happy with the current sp...
HGH is my biggest income stock together with KPG.
Happy to get 8 to 9 c a year dividend per share n continue to increase.
Need a good income at current time..
Yes ,me too. it's good to be back @$1.42 in an old fave.Thought I'd missed my limit price ,but the contract note was late,so nicely surprised to see i'dcaught the rise.
Jeff says F21 NPAT is going to be about $85m.
He seems to be a bit vague about how he gets there. All we know is that it doesn't include whatever the increased value of Harmoney is.
F20 NPAT was reported as $72.0m but included that $6.9m covid overlay so I think in Jeff's mind real NPAT was $78.9m
So the $85m F21 guidance is 7.7% up on the $78.9m - seems a pretty realistic growth as F20 growth was 7.2%
Growth from $72.0m to $85m is an outrageous 19.4% - Jeff would never be that bullish in a mllion years.
So it seems that they think the covid overlay is not needed in F21 (not used to date they said the other day). Does this imply that the forecast $85m is F20 NPAT $72.0m plus wrteback of covid overlay of $6.9 plus continued normal growth of $6.1m. (I don't think you can assume guidance of $85m and add on $6.9m covid overlay to come up with a 'likely' guidance of $91.9m)
That's how I see F21 - another year of steady 7%/8% growth - but I may be wrong reading between the lines of what Jeff is saying (he is pretty vague)
Must be something wrong in my Heartland spreadsheet --- must look for the bug
It says that if F21 NPAT is only $$84m (mid point of guidance) it will the 8th successive year of slowing growth (ie growth lower than prior year)
Can't be right
Updated with yesterday's closing metrics and as you'd expect with a few weeks since the previous post on 18 November with ongoing positive news of covid vaccines the Australian Peer group I follow have now moved up into a multiple that I would describe as a Covid recovery level and shareholders are obviously expecting good ongoing growth as we head towards higher earnings in FY22 and beyond. Interestingly the PE multiple of all this group have expanded with the average expansion moving up from 14.9 to 15.8, (0.9 increase)
Against this backdrop over the same timeframe HGH's multiple has expanded from the ridiculously low 9.4 to a still very low 11.1, an expansion of 1.7 multiple, (up 25 cents, ~ 18.5%) so my position that HGH was VERY cheap on a relative basis to its peers has been somewhat validated to date, (but its very early days). I expect HGH to continue to significantly outperform its peer group in the near term.
Looking ahead I see no reason why in the foreseeable future HGH won't move up into a covid recovery based earnings multiple at a similar level therefore I see scope for considerable ongoing outperformance. My high end scenario for this time next year is HGH trading on a forward multiple of 15.8 times estimated FY22 earnings of $100m = 16.3 cps = $2.58
We probably won't get that high but I think HGH has very strong potential to considerably outperform the NZX50 over 2021.
I expect normalized earnings this year of about $93m. On top of that could be one off's of some covid provisioning recovery from FY20 and the possible recognition of some unrealized profit on the harmoney stake.
You guys have forgotten Percy’s great observation / piece of advice. It needs to be repeated.
Heartland always do what they say they will do (I’m sure it was Heartland he was meaning when he came up with wisdom.)
When announcing F19 result Jeff said F20 would be $77m-$80m ....delivered $78.9m
Previous years you will find they delivered pretty close to what they said they would do
F21 npat will be between $83m and $85m ...Jeff will deliver on what he/they say they will be do.
Talk of big numbers above that that are being thrown about is just wishful thinking.
And pie in the sky stuff.
Remember the wisdom of the wise Percy
FACT CHECK: Heartland always do what they say they will do
As the table below shows over the years NPAT guidance has been spot on, and generally stays unchanged through the year. Impressive.
Only one 'downgrade' and we'll forgive them for that (restructuring costs etc) and once they delivered slightly more than what they said they would do.
Jeff has his finger on the pulse of the business.
Note: F20 NPAT excludes the $6.9m covid overlay (ie their normalised NPAT). I get the impression that in Jeff's mind it isn't real but only something he was made to do.
Fair comment Winner and thanks for your work on that looking back at recent years. At mid point of guidance $84m and if one assumes 7% growth for FY22 that's a forecast of $90m for FY22, (I'll leave others to judge for themselves whether that's reasonable or not but remember they just declared a net profit of $29.9m for the last 4 months so that annualized is already $90m) and eps for FY22 of 14.67 cps. Put a covid recovery forward PE of 15.8, (average of what the peer group I follow is already on) suggests a fair target price for Christmas 2021 of $2.32.
Maybe Santa will come for HGH shareholders in 2021 ? (Its been a tough 2020 with the shares still well down on the $1.85 they started the year at)
Loved it when the price went down 90c....wished that I sold all my belongings...house n undies...n bought HGH