I still think we will probably find out by Friday that we are overnight billionaires... at the AGM next week absolute latest.
Just tossing up whether or not to go out and by the bottle of Dom today in anticipation.
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Colliers who has the mandate to sell the Leonard St property has removed the ‘for sale advert’ from its website. It had been there since May.
Either a sale is going through or Sky has decided to pull the property from the market.
Guess there will definitely be an update by Friday?
Place your bets!!!
Can't sey definitely but I think it is highly likely.
And I would be shocked if the sale was pulled at this stage. The question is really going to be around how good a job did Colliers do...did they attract the best buyers and negotiate a compelling price?
Hopefully Sky get above $75M after fees for the campus...$2k/sqm would be over $80M...and in this market some might even argue that Sky should be able to get closer to $2.5k/sqm.
Given the ad was pulled days ago...if the reason was because Sky have decided not to go through with the sale I think they would be required to update the market by now...
So the fact that this has not happened makes me think that the ad has been pulled because they are at the final stages of going unconditional...
Guess the SP is not going to budge until the fat lady sings :D
I've topped up enough recently so will just sit on the fence for now. :)
This is my idea for the best case scenario...
Colliers manage to get Sky $2.25K/sqm which would be about $95M. I know some will think that is overly optimistic...and maybe it is, this is SKT after all! But let's just imagine a best case where they can actually get a price/sqm that is close enough to what other properties seem to be able to get at the moment...
And let's just say that after all fees and costs etc Sky have $90M.
Well, they could do a tax free distribution of $75M of that to shareholders by way of capital return. For every 7 shares owned, cancel 1 and pay sharholders $3/share. This is what I have mentioned before, and the more I think about it the more I think I would prefer this to an on market buyback.
Sky further reduce s/o to 150M while also effectively giving long suffering shareholders a tax free dividend.
In this scenario they would also keep $15M...which would give them a cash balance of $50M+. No debt, so balance sheet is still strong.
And if you think the worst case scenario is that they walk away with only $50M for the campus then you can rework the above figures...but the approach/principe remains the same.
Or The Antivax games, a great way to eliminate them, give them there 5 seconds of fame and then"Kapow", "Blam" ."Aargh"
If they do the buyback/CR as per my description...
Then they can start a dividend next year. Even if the dividend starts out at $30M p/a that would be 20c/share. The SP would probably sit somewhere between $2.50 - $3.50 depending on assumptions for yield and the market's expectations around growth.
SP could even hit $4 ($600M market cap) if the growth story got more traction.
THEN Sky is in a much strong position when it comes to exploring any M&A transactions.
mistaTea got it allllll figured out! Don't you worry!
All the ideas are great! Do mista tea's share cancel/buy back along with ogg's 150,000 free WiFi plans. My quick math makes that a bargain at 15mill. Assuming 65mill for the property sale. 15mill WiFi plan and 50mill buyback/cancel.
Edit: quick math was only for a month...
So I reckon just oggs idea of the squid games is a goer. But not liking my chances as I feel all sky holders are desperate.
The price has mostly held at the 38.2% fib retracement since the rise in late August
Attachment 13123
That one spike down to the 50% retracement level shows good support - volume rose that day (from Jarden chart not shown)
Attachment 13124
Discl. small long.
If they do the mistaTea Plan…
The SP will rocket up to $2.90 as stock traders take advantage of arbitrage btw…
Everyone should be praying that Sophie has taken on board my feedback…
I'm easily convinced! At this stage, I will take any plan as long as communication is a part of it, which is currently lacking from this company.