Fair comment. Pipeline is usually 3-4 months. Villages look nice in spring with gardens in full bloom. Just good marketing eh. No worries...Q4 sales are going to be humongous !
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Julian Cook might update the market with a FY18 profit forecast this week like he did about the same time last year. Shareholders should strap themselves in for a bumpy ride and have their sick bag at the ready as feedback I have been hearing is that Auckland real estate has been very slow and soft selling in recent months so I would expect that the gangbusters sales result that's needed for Q4 to make the years result good won't be as robust as needed.
November Auckland for sale listings on Trademe up 9% on previous November. As of today there are over 12,000 Auckland listings there so 9% is a significant number. I doubt that the number of buyers, deposit and serviceability sorted, has suddenly increased anything like that much. Also expect there are fewer investors buying atm while waiting to see what additional costs and rules this government has coming.
So yes, sales will slow though how much that will impact retirement village sales who knows. Until numbers emerge.
It looks like this stock is the only retirement stock going up today. The rest have either stayed level or are on their way down......... I hope I have not jinxed it.
Last year they released upgraded profit guidance on 19 December. If nothing is released this week I would see that as concerning if I was a shareholder.
All my sources suggest real estate in Auckland has been very, very hard sell this quarter and its the big Auckland developments at Ellerslie and Hobsonville they're looking to sell down. I read into the fact that they have not provided a forecast as things are pretty tough for them. OCA on considerably better metrics and are more needs based (defensive) as opposed to most entrants to a SUM village being an optional lifestyle choice based on the proviso they can sell their home for what they want.
Selling out completely at very close to the $8 top was one of my best decisions of 2018.
Could be headed back to $5 in 2019 and will run the ruler over it again if it does.
But Barfoot and Thompson said recently “Strong performance from Auckland housing market as it heads into the year end".
They seem pretty happy
Good on you for getting out at 8 bucks odd ....needs to go up 30% from current price to get back to 8 bucks (maybe it never will)