Yes, I certainly was - some of my shorter term indicators were verging on a reversal of this weeks action, so I hunkered down and waited, but alas, it proved not to be. Maybe next week....maybe not
regards
Xerof
Printable View
Yes, I certainly was - some of my shorter term indicators were verging on a reversal of this weeks action, so I hunkered down and waited, but alas, it proved not to be. Maybe next week....maybe not
regards
Xerof
auckland trading was a little black this morning.
No such problems here.......trading as usual in full sun and 21 C [8D]
http://www.sunshinecoast.au.nu/image...MooBeach01.JPG
arco
the sunshine coast huh
well yeh would be nice this time of year.... my folks live over there ... I'll be visting them for Xmas - prolly be too hot for me then tho.
Yep Peat - its a wonderful spot to escape the NZ winter.
Havin fun here with my golfing buddies............
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v5...Kangaroos1.jpg
arco - basking in 23 C
lol arco..... dont let one of those roos run away with your ball in its pouch!
got an email article today from stratfor.com re china , unfortunately cant link to the article on da web coz its premium (i.e requires money) tho they do send out emails containing some of their articles for free. I fully recommend joining for as much of their free stuff (and more if you have the cash) as you can get if you have any interest in geopolitical analysis. I assure you its top notch stuff
so I will quote a few paragraphs for your delight and delectation
[quote]quote:The Chinese government is continuing efforts to cope with its runaway economy. The People's Bank of China has raised interest rates. Banks have been told to curb lending. The government has said that it will implement procedures to rein in foreign acquisitions at low prices -- or, in other words, to block fire-sales of Chinese companies. As a recent headline in the Japan Times put it, "China's Monetary Surge Dooms Its Boom."
A lot of things have gone into dooming China's boom, and the money surge is one of the more immediate problems. However, as we have argued (and this article should be read in the context of past analyses), the end of the Chinese boom was inevitable. The issue now is how all of this will play out in China and in the world.
What must be understood is that China now is moving from an economic problem to a socio-political one. The financial problem is a symptom; the fundamental problem is that tremendous irrationality has been built into the Chinese economy. Enterprises that are not economically viable continue to function through infusions of cash. Some of the cash comes from borrowing, some by exporting at economically unsustainable prices. The result is a squandering of resources. The reasons that this continues have nothing to do with economic rationalism and everything to do with political and social reality.
If interest rates were to rise and lending were to become disciplined, many of China's enterprises would fail. This would bring several consequences.
First, and most important, it would result in a massive increase in unemployment. At this point, the irrationality has been going on for years. It is not only state-owned enterprises that are economically unsustainable; many newer enterprises, including those in which Western companies have invested, are not succeeding
...............
China's Likely Path
Asia has been here before. Japan encountered this problem around 1990, and East and Southeast Asia encountered it in 1997. Roughly three models for dealing with the problem exist:
Japan model: Use reserves and formal and informal measures to avoid actions that would trigger massive bankruptcies and unemployment. Accept economic stagnation for the better part of a generation.
South Korea model: Move rapidly to restructure the economy, using economic and political means. Control social unrest with security measures. Move out of the problem in a matter of years.
Indonesia model: Lacking resources to manage the crisis, suffer both financial dysfunction and political strife among the elite and between regions.
Japan was able to do what it did because it is a highly disciplined, cohesive society, in which shared pain is viewed as preferable to social dislocation. South Korea was able to do what it did because the magnitude of its crisis was relatively less than Japan's, and because the state had the means for suppressing unhappiness. Indonesia failed to do what it needed to do because it lacked resources and political power.
..............
As for the effects on the international economy, there has been a great deal of discussion about China's ownership of U.S. Treasury instruments and the consequences if that money were withdrawn in a crisis. In fact, this is the last thing that is going to happen. If China has a massive financial crisis, no one -- including the Chinese government -- is going to
Hi Peat
Interesting - thanks.
How do you find this site helps with your trading decisions?
Regards - arco
you always ask hard questions arco!
in general it wouldnt help trading except perhaps broaden a fundamentals type understanding I suppose, but since you and I tend to trade technically it would just be classed as peripheral knowledge I guess.
I enjoy their analysis simply for its quality really, but the reason I posted this particular one was because it analyses how an economy might escape a boom/bust crisis and because it argues that money actually flows INTO the US when these crises have occurred in the past. And it debunks the notion that China will withdraw its US investment if and when a crisis occurs.
I have noticed that your 3 recent posted graphs all predict USD strength. This goes against most of the other analyses I've been reading eg Jyske and of course the general feeling that USD must weaken considerably in an effort to redress global economic imbalances. I'm thinking thats very contrarian of you ;+) (which of course ties in with your old signature)
Here's a nice one which is in line with the Arco moneymaking machines perspectives.....but look at the bigger picture for later in the hunting season........
http://www.e-wavecharts.com/usd_may2006.htm
Xerof
Morning All from QLD
Thanks Xerof
Re the posted link. Try adding a hash after the htm, I think thats the problem.
Regards - arco
sorry, try this site and its the article on USDIndex dated May 7th
http://www.ewavecharts.com/
Well chaps put a CD on and fired up the screens for the first time in ages,now all I have to do is get the brain back up to speed[:0][|)]:([xx(][^]:):D[8D].
Cheers
Miner
P.S,hope your all doing ok.
fellas
found out a new system, about to impliment it.
question is i dunno how to place the orders.
here it is:
say todays closing price is 6475
its in an uptrend, i want to further confirm it, so if it hits 6480, ill buy.
how do i place my order for that?
stop buy @ 6480?
limit buy @ 6480?
and vice versa.
say its in a down trend , at the moment its 6410
i want to make sure it continues, so will sell when it lows to 6400
so do i do a :
limit sell @ 6400
stop sell @ 6400
im not to sure if CMC markets lets me do this?
Hi Dazza
On my platform fxcm it is called an entry order which allows me to either sell or buy in the future at a specified rate such as trading the breakout or at a specified price as you describe above!
can also place a stoploss, a profit taking level, and a trailing stop at the same time as i place the order.but dont know about cmc
cheers rod
i tink those are called like mini futures roddy?
those examples would both be stops in CMC
stop buy @ 6480? YES
stop sell @ 6400 YES
weird but true.
sweet, peat do u use CMC?>
Dazza, Ive just signed up with CMC myself, and I'm just coming to terms with the ordering process. Its not quite as intuitive as some of the other platforms I've used, but as long as you're careful and don't stuff up the stop losses on your first couple of trades you're away laughing.
I noticed you can also denominate the trade in the opposing currency (in this case the US$) and execute a stop sell and get the same result as a stop buy! Just to confuse the situation.
yes I do use CMC's Marketmaker software and it seriously sucks with african american lips. Having used a few other platforms I cant believe how difficult they make things. Intuitive? Not much!
And there are some combinations of contingent orders which I used in other platforms that are simply not possible in MarketMaker
But its local and does mini orders, and it is work-able , just ugly and difficult.
I use oanada fxgame for graphing stuff as well. But it only has 1 year time frame maximum.
those examples would both be stops in CMC
stop buy @ 6480? YES
so for an order like that, if the SP went above 6480 my order would get filled for a buy
stop sell @ 6400 YES
so for an order like this, if SP went DOWN TO 6400, my sell order would get filled?
NOTE I WOULD NOT HAVE HAD A POSITION BE4 HAND, THESE POTENTIAL ORDERS ARE FOR ENTERING THEM?
weird but true.
so is that correct peat? for an entry order?
regards,
dazza
yes CMC markets platform suxs ****
yes dazza. i checked the notes from the 1 day course i went on, to make sure and I also tried it on the platform so I am quite sure about what I am saying.
swell :D
peat, are we able to make stop / limit orders outside of when the markets are closed?
it seems as if it didnt work?
so i had to set alartm to wake up when dow jones was trading to place my order
i think so, I just placed an order at 8:20 AM to buy Fletcher Building at $8.35 to close my existing short on that. Doubt it will get triggered but like you I wont be in front of the platform when it is trading.
These stop/limits orders need to be one percent away from market price tho, maybe that is getting in your way?
mmmm i did eh, place them at least 1% away....
ill have to further refine
Hi All
Have just finished reading Day Trading the currency
market by
Kathy Lien
and also
Taming the lion by Richard Farleigh
Kathy is fxcm chief strategist also was an assosiate of jp morgan chase. Richard Farleigh worked for bt in aus then tradred a hedge fund in bermuda before retiring at 34 to Monte Carlo,now invests in small start ups etc, his wealth is estimated at around
160 mill,
if anybody wants any info on the books will post what i can.
cheers cadet roddy
Someone talks about that womans book in the following link - giving out one of her strategies as well
http://www.forexproject.com/Blog/Lea...rrency_Market/
Here are her strategy rules for entering a Long Position:
1. Locate a currency pair trading well below its intraday 20 SMA on a 10- or 15-minute chart.
2. Next, enter a long position several pips below the figure (no more than 10)
3. Place an initial protective stop no more than 20 pips below the entry price
4. When the position is profitable by double the amount that you risked, close half of the position, and move your stop on the remaining portion of the trade to breakeven. Trail your stop as the price moves in your favor.
Reverse the strategy rules for a short position.
There are conditions for using this strategy, the most important being that no major economic numbers should be released during this setup.
She states that this strategy should work best for pairs with tighter trading ranges, cross, and commodity currencies. This strategy does work for the majors but under quieter market conditions.
Hi Peat
Yes thats right,she calls this strategy fading the double zeros.
double zeros represent numbers where the last two digits are 0, basically if the price is trending down to say .6200 intraday she would go long @.6195 with stop 20 below etc.
the idea is to put traders on the same side as market makers and it positions traders for a quick
contra -trend,the thinking is that traders are human and often think in terms of round numbers.
i have not tried the strategy so dont know its probability,she does comment that it needs to be confirmed with other indicators.
in taming the lion Richard Farleigh maintains you need to have a comparative advantage, in our case over mainstream TA, as everybody seems to follow adx mv macd rsi sto etc,
My view is that our comparative advantage is in morphing insects and major Gann, thanks to our two resident Gurus,this is possible!
cheers cadet roddy
[8D]:D:D:):D;)
Heres the latest picture of me in The Butterfly House wearing my lucky yellow cap.
http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/7342/dd3811xl4.jpg
Might pay to get that black spot on your ear looked at by your doc,unless its just a piece of butterfly terd[?][?][?][:0]:D;).
Hi Miner
:)
Good to see you back on the forum......
whats the tea leaves/bags suggesting at the moment.
arco in QLD ( for a few more weeks)
Evening Arco still using my system but only watching at night as busy during the day so a tad knackered by the time I get to watch,eur/jpy the tidiest one out of my 4 lately and it's same way mate usd/jpy,usd/jpy has been moving before eur/jpy lately so gives you the jump on the move(led the move for the one peat jumped on the other day then eur/jpy followed} and eur/usd the messiest and its opp way mate usd/chf.
Hard for me to post as still don't talk charty,but then you guys know I post tea leaf picks so may post a bit more on what I see,just hard to say why as you guys don't talk tea leafs,might have to write a book so you can all read and learn the right terminology,"FX Trading The Tea leaf System".
Cheers
Miner
Cheers
Miner
Hehe was going to say eur/jpy would test 149.35, look at the hourly's,wasn't much in it anyway.
While I am putting my neck on the block,usd/chf just about testing 486(hourly) so eur/usd should test at least 703 and maybe 717ish(hourly)
Well 30 odd pips so far on that one,just on the off chance anyone wants to know how I picked that one?,no,to bad I'm going to tell you anyway hehe,eur/usd was a sideways mess so toss a coin for which way it was going to break.
But usd/chf which always goes the opposite way was going and looking like it would continue south,look at the last 7(but used last 5 for this) hourly's on usd/chf,all red,and on eur/usd only last 3,5,and 15min charts also said what eur/usd would do,the hammer on the 1900 hourly for eur/usd also helped,was a sort of shooting star at the same time on usd/chf hourly.
Usually you get 15-30 seconds to 5min max using the go same way or opp method but tonight this pair gave more like 30 min a lifetime in FX,so if one goes and shows the move and the other is yet to go,jump on the one yet to go as other is saying what it will do and usually there are more pips in it as it is yet to go.
Also from hours of watching they all tend to go back to at least test high- low spikes from earlier in the day,say high spike on the close or first candle of the day,get sold down during the day,back to test it in the arvo,not quiet as simple as that but something to watch for.
One catch to this method for eur/jpy and usd/jpy is they go the same way "most" of the time so confirm each other,but they can also do what they are now and go opp,so then it's usd/jpy usd/chf same way and eur/usd eur/jpy same way.
Tea leaf 101,an ok system or just fluked one??? hehe.
Cheers
Miner
i got 35 pips on the gbp/jpy last night sort of working like that miner... Chf/Jpy was all pointing up and it was clear this was the trend in GBP/Jpy too and of course there was strength in cable itself.
It had been coming up from 220.3 and had reached 221.52.Then it retraced to its 38.2% level 221.05 and I jumped in. Had 35 pips on that very 15 min candle. So playing ninja with the ninja beast herself paid off this time. Gotta be very careful with that one tho.
Morning Miner
Nice scalping system there, and finely balancedno doubt by a generous dose of reading the Dilmah tea leaves.............have you got a patent on it yet ;)
arco
Evening arco,yep system working good,but use earl grey for longs and dilmah for shorts;),anyway just got home and am making dinner and dashing in to look at screens,so at a "glance"usd/chf is above 584 (daily),so looking for eur/usd to go south to 686-680 (hourly) and more if usd/jpy stays above 584.
Eur/jpy just breaking south which is good for the above,but as say is a making dinner 5second glance call[:0] and am drinking water not tea so....:D
Cheers
Miner
Well was a few pips in that last one,way past my bed time but thought just on the off chance someone is interested,as I have said before eur/jpy and usd/jpy just about always go the same way but also usd/jpy just about always moves first,they have just done a 20+ odd pip move south,so if you were watching say the 5 and 15min charts for both (around the 23.45 time mark) you had quiet a bit of time(for FX) to jump on a eur/jpy short after usd/jpy had begun to go south,so you knew eur/jpy would follow.
usd/chf leads eur/usd also but they go opp ways.
Just thought might help for entry's for both trades and longer holds.
Cheers
Miner
Off to bedy bise this time but first usd/chf just led a 20 odd pip move for it and eur/usd and they tested the high lows from earlier in the day like I have said they do,so both things said the move would happen.
Also look at the third hourly back(23.00) and it was saying it would test the high lows,515 usd/chf and 684 eur/usd.
Cheers
Miner
My DSL has been down for 22 hours now!!!!
I noticed it 8 PM y'day and after logging a call its still down today. Some problem with the central Auckland exchange or some such s.h.i.te. Got 3rd world?
Girl is home and well which is good , but of course I now had to come out to a net cafe :(
Hi Peat
Mate its the pits when you are off line and cant get on.
My stategy would be to hassle my isp,the bottom line is, you are trying to run an internet business which requires you to be online,if you cant be online means lost opportunity and 22 hours seems a long time.
When i was in Uganda recently they would shut the power off at night,that is to be expected,however 22 hrs outage on your computer in Auckland isnt expected nor should it be,in our technological age!
cheers cadet roddy
Try 2 weeks before they could get a guy to go to the local exchange to flick a switch before my phone was back on,and yes it was just flick a switch,the time before was a week.
Yeah..........it took Telecom about 4 years to fix me up with Broadband........and in the end I had to tell the engineers exactly how they could fix the problem......its a long story which involved me phoning Helen Cluck at home :(
back online this morning ..... its amazing how I couldnt mentally adjust to having no connection, I would be reading a book and then I would get up and go to the PC to wiki something and it would suddenly click - doh. but I did re-read a few chapters of my John Murphy book
http://ec1.images-amazon.com/images/...CLZZZZZZZ_.jpg
i will crash soon too
but leaving short GBP/JPY and short NZD/USD in place overnite.
retracement toook out my stops tho I guess in gbp/jpy it was more than a retracement. small profits.... really should have bailed earlier... oh well.
Does anyone think the levels reached on Friday in USD/JPY or Eur/USD are significant.... i.e Is THIS the breakout?
Morning Peat
JPY.USD
I mentioned on 21/8 on the Detached Trader forum
"I feel in the medium term the action could be heading towards circa 120"
Closing to that area now.
EUR.
Well that was a scary move on Fri, but my gut feeling is EUR should be going north as per previous charts. etc. Fridays black candle wick was just a jit above the red pitchfork line in my last EUR chart. Minor Gann support circa 2569.
So, I'm looking for a reversal pattern to go long for mega pips. Until then - staying on the sidelines.
regards - arco
enjoy those temps while you can Arco !
I feel a bit stupid for not participating in these fantastic calls you're making at the moment. but I continue to operate within my own money mgmnt constraints and comfort zones.
My ledger is on the positive side tho and I feel very honoured to see your analyses and successes and continue to try to learn from your postings.
I hope your return to NZ is a pleasant one.
Thanks Peat
I am winding down now and cases are mostly packed ready to spend the final Aussie w/e in Brisbane before returning to NZ on Monday.
The Vaio will be off from tomorrow AM when Telstra pulls the plug, and that will be Aussie over for this year.
It will probably take me a day or two to get back in the swing of things, but there will always be forex opportunities appearing.
Regards - arco
Paying for TA software.
Whose done it. A lot or a little? Was it worth it?
I've never bought any analysis software, I've expected my trading platform to provide me with indicators etc as they have done. I havent even investigated Metastock (tho I might go and do that now). But I think a number of you have done this sort of stuff. Was it valuable to the extent that it paid for itself over time.
This 2 day seminar I went on did the hard sell on Profit Source and I'm tempted to check it out even at over $4k especially knowing that it has a 30 day money back guarantee heheh.
www.profitsource.com
Opinions?
http://www.profitsource.com/images/tour/startpage2.gif
Morning Peat
I will look at their website later, in the meantime......
You might also like to check out MTPredictor - it looks similar and may be cheaper.
www.MTPredictor.com
I only use Metastock, but its more hands on for Fibs and EW.
www.equis.com
regards - arco
Morning Peat,
Check the full field before laying your bets.
Here's another couple of starters:
Refined Elliot Trader :
www.elliottician.com/showpage.asp?p=284
Elwave :
www.prognosis.nl/web2002/index.html
regards
Xerof
the week is starting off with some life. look at eur/jpy!!!!
Here are some news items that might have some effect this week.
Mon. 11/27/06 6:50 PM EST JPY Retail Sales y/y
Tue. 11/28/06 8:30 AM EST USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Tue. 11/28/06 12:30 PM EST USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Tue. 11/28/06 7:30 PM EST AUD Trade Balance
Wed. 11/29/06 8:30 AM EST USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (p)
Wed. 11/29/06 10:00 AM EST USD New Home Sales m/m
Thu. 11/30/06 8:30 AM EST USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
Thu. 11/30/06 6:30 PM EST JPY Core Tokyo CPI m/m
Fri. 12/01/06 7:00 AM EST CAD Employment Change
Fri. 12/01/06 9:00 AM EST USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
Fri. 12/01/06 10:00 AM EST USD ISM Manufacturing Index
Morning Peat
Yes, following through nicely as per
my post 25/10/2006 - Eur.Jpy thread.
Heres the chart posted then..............Quote:
quote:When the Symm Triangle breaks we could see a nice run
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eur.yen_102506.gif
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.a...99&whichpage=5
regards - arco
yes absolutely Arco, I kept your prediction in mind but there was pain along the way and then everybody started talking about Central Bank intervention.... its never an easy ride.
Interesting?.......................
Recent press release from the ECRI on their WLI 20-November-2006
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The index of leading indicators increased for the second month in a row in October, a tentative sign of better economic times ahead.
Moreover, the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading index – which gives a more up-to-date view - moved further into positive territory in the week ended Nov. 10, for the second week in a row.
"We've still got lackluster growth between now and early 2007, but the risk of recession may be receding," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI in New York.
If Achuthan is correct and there is a fading chance of a recession and lessened threat from inflation, then he could also be right when he states that "the Federal Reserve may stay on hold for a lot longer than people think."
The Changed Nature Of Leading Indicators
Composite leading indicator indexes have fallen into some disfavor with financial markets, possibly for two reasons: (1) markets are more focussed on specific sectors that may be the chief sources of economic weakness – currently housing market indicators, at other times manufacturing indicators; and (2) leading indicator indexes are most valuable at signaling cyclical turning points and no such indication has been given recently.
To be sure, the Conference Board index has stuttered in recent months with little clear trend. Over the six months from April through October the index has drifted down by just 0.2%, hardly changed at all.
In October, the index rose by 0.2%, with six out of the 10 indicators up, led by a 0.43 percentage point contribution from real money supply, reflecting both an increase in nominal money supply and a decline in the consumer price index. Based on the decline in the CPI, the Conference Board presumed a decline in the personal consumption expenditures price index which it uses to deflate money supply. Offsetting some of the increase were declines, including a 0.27 percentage point decline in vendor performance and a 0.17 point decline in building permits.
At the same time there were revisions, including a fairly large one to September (now up 0.4% instead of the initially reported 0.1% gain).
Indeed, the tendency for frequent and fairly large revisions may be another reason for the lessened market interest in the leading index. (Three of the components - manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods and the real money supply - are not fully known and, so, the Conference Board makes imputations for them.)
ECRI's Index More Timely, Less Revised
ECRI's weekly leading index has the advantages of being more timely than the monthly Conference Board indicator. Its seven components are available at time of publication, so, there's less guesswork and fewer revisions.
The favored measure that the ECRI analysts look at to evaluate the index is not the index level itself or its month-to-month change, but rather the change in the index relative to its 52-week moving average.
On that basis, the WLI reached a 2006 peak of +5.0% in the week ended Feb. 10, drifted lower until it moved into negative territory in the week ended July 28, where it stayed for 14 weeks before showing a 0.6% increase relative to the 52-week average in the week ended Nov. 3 and an increase of 1.2% in the week ended Nov. 10.
Just as the early February peak signaled the drift through slower growth in the second and third quarters, the move back into positive territory - if it continues - could signal a return to more trend-like growth by the second quarter of 2007, according to Achuthan.
"The improvement in the WLI is pervasive, it's not just one component," said Achuthan, who looks for signals that are pronounced, prolonged and pervasive. "It takes a while before we can tell for sure, but it's beginning to look like there's something afoot. The WLI is like a one-armed economist."
That seems to mean that the signal i
Anyone having connectivety problems through xtra broadband????
I can't get connected, and I've hung on for the xtra helpline for over 30 mins without them answering?
(Currently connected via Actrix dial up).
arco
yes I logged a call too Arco, but as soon as I got off the helpdesk telling me there was known problem all over the country mine came right again.
Thanks for your prompt reply Peat.
I just tried broadband again but no luck yet, although xtra dial up connects OK. No doubt the problem will resolve eventually.
regards - arco
its good you have a backup method. I dont. I just rely on the fact I can always phone the dealers.
from EWI
"The [U.S. Dollar Index] remains deeply oversold on a near term basis. Friday [Nov. 24] we noted that the index closed more than 3 standard deviations below its average price of the preceding 20 days. This morning we looked at the data and found 10 instances since 1990 when the U.S. Dollar index closed more than 3 standard deviations below its 20-day average price. Not every instance led to an immediate rally. In nearly all ten examples however, the downside potential was limited after the oversold reading occurred…"
Am I the only lucky one using FXCM who's charts have all gone to sh*t just as it gets a move on?,about 10 pips out with the dealing rates,then they catch up,:(.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
Have you tried Net Dania as a subsitute when this problem occurs. They will not be exactly the same to the pip, but should be near enough to trade out/into a position.
regards - arco
Hi arco not yet but may have to,looks to have come right since the hourly candle changed 10mins after the hour:(.
As have said before pays to keep an eye on the dealer rates AND your charts to make sure they are the same or[:0][V][B)].
Cheers
Miner
Yeh I often run two charts, one web based. Sometimes restarting my programme assists for me if its not updating. Net Dania looks good! monthly charts and long term data.
Problem with that is that I run 4 screens with a pair on each and 4 charts for each pair,so 16 charts altogether,so a tad tricky to fire them all up in a hurry.
Cheers
miner
you need to Alt-Tab more.;)
Some interesting stuff here on John Key and his style of currency trading,would also be interesting to know how successful the best local traders are?
this comes from an article called Keys path to the Top
stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3880392a6160,00.html
He stayed with the company till 1985, when he saw a television programme about a day in the life of a foreign exchange dealer, Alan "Sooty" Cole. "I thought, I can do that."
The Lange/Douglas government had just deregulated the currency market and Mr Key was transfixed by the drama, the excitement and the money on offer. Traders were paid a salary and a bonus depending on how successful they were at "making pips" - a margin on currency traded.
The difference between selling a New Zealand dollar for US65c and US65.05c is only .05c. But sell 10 million and the difference becomes US$5000. Dealers make hundreds, if not thousands, of such transactions, every day. The best are those who consistently sell high and buy low.
From the beginning, Mr Key had a feel for the market. His starting salary as a trainee at Elders Finance was $75,000 and his first bonus - after six months - was another $75,000.
"It's all about pattern recognition and intuition and confidence. You need to be confident, but not cocky," he says.
Some of his peers considered him a big risk taker because he took big positions. But there was a method to his madness. He usually held the positions for only a few minutes.
Other traders took smaller positions, but held them much longer, dramatically increasing their exposure to market fluctuations.
He was also flexible enough to reverse out of a position when he realised he had made a mistake. "I'd go out and belt the market and if it didn't go down it meant to me it was going to go up and I'd buy two times as much and get out of it."
In 1988, he was headhunted by Bankers' Trust to head its currency operations in Auckland. He scored an early coup when Roger Douglas was sacked as finance minister by David Lange later that year. The market had been anticipating trouble and everyone knew Sir Roger's departure would drive the dollar down, but when it happened the news was slow filtering through to the markets.
Mr Key heard about it over the car radio on the way back from a family funeral. Walking into a quiet dealing room, he instructed the bank's traders to sell all they could. They made between $2 million and $3 million for the bank that day.
At the time he joined Bankers' Trust, the Australian investment bank was a third-tier operator in the New Zealand market. By the time he departed, in 1995, it was New Zealand's biggest currency trader with daily turnover of about $1 billion.
Mr Key, according to his then-boss Gavin Walker, was the country's dominant dealer. "He was not only number one in New Zealand. In terms of the Kiwi dollar, he was number one globally. People came and dealt with him because he was John Key. They knew that they could deal with him in large volumes, narrow prices and his word was his bond."
When he left Bankers' Trust, New Zealand's top currency traders were earning up to $750,000 a year. Mr Key, as a manager, was paid more. Asked how much, he laughs awkwardly: "A lot, relative to the New Zealand market."
But the real big money came when he shifted to London as the global head of Merrill Lynch, with more than 100 traders reporting to him. At the time, the company was offering key staff big "guarantees" if they stuck with the firm. Mr Key took his guarantee in the form of stock options. He also took most of his salary the same way.
Again, he won't say what he was paid, but industry observers says no one in his position would have earned less than 2 million at a time when top traders were pulling in more than 1 million a year.
By New Zealand standards, his salary and guarantee were huge, but his biggest gains came because Merrill Lynch's share value increased five-fold during his six years in London. Over that time, a 1 million (NZ$2.7 million) guarantee would have turned into a 5 million (NZ$13.
I mentioned part of this article on the 'Off topic' thread. Interested to see if politics allows him to keep his word - maybe politics is such that it is impossible to tell the complete truth and get the votes.
George
Just a chart update guys as they went to custard in the last hour,so talked to a guy at FXCM and he told me that they are third party charts and power charts are aware that there charts are sh*t(not in those exact words thought hehe;)) but couldn't say if and when they will be sorted,great:(.
Looked at Dania but as far as can see I cant set up 4 charts per screen with them?.
Anyway as have said keep an eye on the dealing rates and the charts to see if the same,not such an issue for people setting buy sells but a pain if watching for trades.
Cheers
Miner
Just looking at eur/usd on Dania and it is the same as power chart,not to bad only about 15 Fing pips out,others up to 20 pips:(.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
see what you mean,even on Dania following the Aud chart can be up to 3 pips out on dealing rates
Keep an eye on rates and charts Roddy as lately up to 10minutes behind(candles don't change) and 20 pips out,so useless for trading,day time not so bad but at night when it warms up they go to custard.
Cheers
Miner
They have a serious problem then Miner, any thoughts on what you will do?
cheers roddy
use fxgame!!
the quotes match mine (Marketmaker) almost perfectly and you can run multiple windows.
http://fxgame.oanda.com
The guy I talked to said that FXtrek Intellicharts were the most reliable,so may try there free trial,as having to watch to see if the charts are right on top of looking for a trade is a tad tricky shall we say.
They may come right again as have not had these problems for a while.
Cheers
Miner
fxgame???
Oop's no link before ,ta peat.
Cheers
Miner
if u want good graphs fxgame is great see the link above.. takes only a simple registration for free , its a web app simulating forex trading just like the real Oanda. You just need java and to allow popups from that site if your browser blocks them
Ta peat had a look,can you zoom in on the charts?
Cheers
Miner
yeh
theres a + in the bottom right hand corner
and to detach the graph into a separate window use the 'window on a window' symbol in the top right of the chart...
its pretty flexible and intuitive i reckon
Well boys it's 12min past the hour and power chart hourly's are yet to change[:0][V],I got nailed due to wrong charts and couldn't play the ripper short on eur/jpy and usd/jpy,so power charts can stick it where the sun doesn't shine:(.
Will sort out what you use peat.
Cheers
Miner
You around tonight peat?.
Cheers
Miner
yes miner I am around mostly. I've just got back from checking out my mates laptop with a Vodafone Vodem. A USB attachment - wireless fast internet connection, a very portable arrangement. Good for trading on the beach hehe
But , I will be using it over the weekend to cover off my work 'on call' duties. Sweet, wont be tied to the apartment.
Sounds good,um how do I get my candles red and green??,did it last night but canny tonight.
Power charts about 30min behind now.
Cheers
Miner
Looking at the daily for eur/jpy on fxgame and power,there are more candles on fxgame(the horizontal one is Sunday?) but even with that there are more and different candles for the daily on fxgame.
So what's up there or am I just loosing it?
Cheers
Miner
heheh took me a few mins to work that out. right click on a candle and choose Red/Green!! :D
I hide weekend data using a config like this pic shows - accessed from Tools/User Preferences.
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/3...fconfigkn0.jpg
Ok ta peat on power chart I can have one detached desk top with as many charts on it as I want,so end up with 4 windows open to get my 16 charts,but on fxgame it looks like I have to have one open for each chart,so rather than 4 pages open on my task bar I end up with 16 open,or can I set it up like power chart?.
Keep in mind I am thick when it comes to the dreaded computer,and also thanks for your help,b*stard about power charts as when they work they are good and like the set up,am used to watching it.
Cheers
Miner
O also fxgame just disconnected me and lost all the charts,was not my isp connection,so that is a big problem if it does that,with power the charts stay there if loose isp and just update when re-connect.
Your last post ta.
Cheers
Miner
I dont think you can do that....
ironically I'm having connection issues with FXgame tonite.... probably a follow through on their upgrade, they're are normally pretty reliable
And each time it reconnects the default graph layout comes back so if that happens to you, you may find it annoying if you've spent ages setting that up.
I guess it is for free ;+)
Yep I cant even get the page up now,and don't think I can set it up to suit my system,with power when I turn on each day I just go to history click on the link and all my charts come up for the day,just have to zoom them in.
Thanks heaps for your help peat but looks like fxgame wont do what I want.
Cheers
Miner
I've used it for a year or more with no issues like there is tonite. but its back up now.
That'll teach me to recommend something. The commission was lousy anyway.;)
Hi Miner
Wondering if you have gotten set up any where yet?
fxcm are still the same,
have you tried Metatrader,i dont know whether they are what you want,there is a link to them from Xerof in the butterfly section,i use them but dont require the accuracy which you need to make your system work
And yeah just spotted a 20pip diff between chart and dealing rate fxcm,has been okay during day time but now not even worth looking at [V]
[V]
cheers roddy
Hi roddy I am going to try a 7 day free trial for FXtrek IntelliChart™ as the guy I talked to the other night said they are ok,but was going to wait to Sunday to sign up for it and if ok set it all up for my system.
As for tonight what a b*stard was just lining up a short for eur/usd it has done 80 odd pips,never mind the long on usd/jpy,looked at them on fxgame but cant set that up how I want and it dropped me off again tonight so no good,will try metatrader,ta.
Power charts as you say ok during the day but as soon as things get moving they don't keep up,and the days this week are like watching paint dry.
Be VERY careful of power charts at the moment or you will get nailed,they are about 15min behind tonight with there candle changes,am going to get up a bit earlier in the morning and see if they have come right,might get a trade running into the daily.
Cheers
Miner
Ta broke but I need live charts like this,and that can be set up like this http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/ChartStation.html when they work they are sweet[8D] but when they do this:(.
Cheers
Miner