silver indicated continued usd weakness. Euro just popped a 5 min asc triangle.
back to test?
nope
too testing out -20 which is all it ever might have given too.
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silver indicated continued usd weakness. Euro just popped a 5 min asc triangle.
back to test?
nope
too testing out -20 which is all it ever might have given too.
Hi All
ExitED EUR at 1.5184 last nite for 538 pip profit after Eur data came thru
i have been in since 1.4644.on this trade,my plan/strategy was to raise stops
progressively,however i went on gut feel and missed out on last nites move,as
my stop was 60 pips away so was never threatened.
today will be looking to get back in on a pullback and <stick to my rules>
cheers
roddy
Hi All
got back on board yesterday,but there was never a pull back as such during the day; up roughly 80 points
heres an interesting stats article regard EURO rsi from thomson.com
[Given that the Reuters forecast for 1-mth EUR/USD was last measured at 1.5200 by the median of forecasters, with the arithmetic mean at 1.5160, spot is roughly 1.3% above expectations.
Daily RSI at 79.35 has only attained these lofty heights five times prior to now in the past three years; on those occasions on two out of five the peak was the next day (Asian session onwards) and it was 15-20 pips higher, then fell 250 and 300 pips. On two occasion the top was 3-6 days later, spot ran up 110-150 pips, and then fell 300; on one occasion it peaked that day, and dropped 260 pips over the next week. That would suggest if spot breaks more than 20 pips higher it is likely to run another big fig or so.
Weekly RSI is at 71.25, has been at or above these levels on 9 occasions over a similar time frame; however with much more volatile results. On four occasions spot peaked weeks later up 400-600 pips; then fell between 700-1100 pips. Twice it peaked the next week 20-30 pips higher, 300-500 pips. On 3 occasions it peaked that week and fell 300-600 pips. One recurrent theme above is that pull backs were between 250-1100 pips; cycle gurus see next week as a temporary cycle top (2-wk pull back) which favours the "up a big fig and fade it" strategy, before further gains. Spot last 1.5360.]
cheers
roddy
this one going to plan , reversal looking imminent , i think non farm may be the catalyst for a final rally higher then postion for short
FWIW what Jyske Bank say tonight
Overnight stock markets and short term USD rates slid as US macroeconomic data showed that home foreclosures keep rising thus fuelling worries concerning the weak US economy. The 2-year US treasury yields fell to 1.45% - the lowest level in 4 years - and market participants are close to pricing in another 75 bps rate cut at the March 18th monetary policy meeting in the Federal Reserve
On the other side of the Atlantic the ECB kept rates on hold at 4% yesterday while revising forecasts for growth downwards and inflation forecasts upwards. At the press conference Governor Trichet underlined the fact that inflation is the European Central Bank’s primary target and he stated that a target rate of 4% is not inconsistent with a continued growth and job creation in the Euro area. Resultantly short term EUR rates rose and the EUR strengthened to new all time highs versus the USD. We stick to the view that a test of the 155.00 on EURUSD (4.80 on USDDKK) isn’t unlikely but with the US job report due for release this afternoon we have chosen not to issue a selling recommendation as another poor reading will be USD-supportive.
The US job report is without a doubt today’s main event. Employment dropped by 17K in January (the first drop in employment since August 2003) and employment indices for the manufacturing and employment sectors indicate that no significant upward adjustment can be expected.
yeh no doubt they mean Eur supportive. their prev statment was saying they couldnt recommend selling Eur as it might test 1.55 which it pretty much did.
(late reply sorry, contrary to popular belief I wasnt glued to the screen all last night, and am now paying the price with a bit of a sore head)
Paul your strategy well implemented could have done okay last night next week the Eur 1.55 PRZ question will presumably be answered more certainly.
no i didnt trade it even though its following the script
i m a little unconvinced that the top is in , may sneek up 156.50 ish but i would wait for a
trade on the wave 2 retracement for the third wave down
really happy to see it go higher as it makes the correction to 145 more profitable
heading to interesting levels
156 50 was a significant target
star print may be significant dependant on the daily bar print tommorrow
shooting star hourlies
divergences galore
maybe just maybe top in place at 156 50
hourly channel broken
must confess to a short at 156 00 sl at 15651 for big reward if this is it
DB
There is no daily star on Euro.
There are major discrepancies in Infoscans (Reuters) SP EOD figures
today. You may need to download SP again if you did it midday/early
afternoon.
I complained to them this afternoon and they checked with Reuters.
Even some of the updated charts are still wrong. (Swissy/Aussie, etc).
Check out Kiwi for an amazing gap (error).
rgds - arco
thanks arco ,
i was checking charts today and saw these gaps all over the place so suspected something was up
its got to be a subliminal message though
heres hoping
Oanda often has price gaps in its daily candlesticks on a Monday - see here the Eur has a massive one - but they are due to the weekend the Fri candle close being on Sat morning and the opening time of the new candle at 4PM, missing out NZ daytime trading.
Looks impressive today !
Could this be the significant run to the top before turning bear-shaped? How much of the FMOCs forthcoming meeting has already been factored in to the current rate?
steve they dont miss it out but it doesnt show in daily candles - it will show in 3 hour or other time frames....
Any thoughts on whether the EURUSD has peaked or whether it is consolidating before another run up to test a new high? I guess the key would be if it holds or breaks 15400?
Closed my short at 15450 last night, which would probably suggest that it will continue lower! ;)
Steve
If the top is in theres a possibility of a continued fall towards
the uptrend line IMO. (Green boxes).
The D leg of the BF is a bit extended, so time alone will tell
if this is the correct.
I went short overnight for a nice windfall, but closed all positions
earlier for the long w/e.
arco
i would agree that top is in
dark cloud cover on the weekly chart is very significant also backed up by shooting star on the daily
there will be some good entrys to go short as this first wave down gets retraced by wave 2
heres a bit of wave personality
wave 2 often retraces so much of wave 1 that most profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends.
investors are thouroughly convinced that the bull market is back to stay
so wave 2 normally gives a sharp correction to 50 - 61.8 of wave 1
so i will aim to wait for wave 2 retracement to set up big short
stop loss at 159 + a few
i would have an ambitious target at 143 (61.8 of complete wave complex )
and also bottom of wave 4
I do wonder if I was too hasty in closing my short at 15450, instead perhaps should have put a lower stop in as a better option?
When do the FX markets re-open, with easter moving around the world?
LONDON - The euro showed no sign of cracking under the global macroeconomic pressure on Wednesday, with unexpectedly healthy German business climate data boosting the currency against the beleaguered U.S. dollar and the British pound. And with the European Central Bank predicting above-target inflation for most of 2008, the euro's rise could be a fixture for months to come.
The German Ifo business climate index showed a largely unexpected rise to 104.8 in March on Wednesday, up from 104.1, in February. The president of the Ifo institute said that companies were more optimistic about exports, despite the strong euro, and had clear plans to hire more workers. The Ifo index is a monthly index compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
Wednesday's bullish data pushed the euro up to $1.58, from $1.56, at the end of trading in Europe. The euro also gained against the pound sterling, up to 0.788 pounds, from 0.787 pounds. The pound was hurt by comments reportedly made by the Bank of England's chief economist, Charles Bean, who said that the British currency suffered downside risks from the size of Britain's current account deficit.
www.forbes.com
Trying to decide whether to go short again (with a stop just above the record-high) with the expectation that it is not going to make a newer high this time around.
hi steve
i have a short on at the moment 5810 with stop loss set at 59 and a few
there is a nice wave count on hourly and a nice upper channel that has been hit
its certainly rallied up pretty strong but i expected as much
great low risk trade if this is a significant move but also a possibilty of being taken out with a new high
stops to break even on this one bounced off lower channel line with a hammer
but ill still give it a chance
Economic commentIFOoled again
Dario Perkins (ABN Amro)On Tuesday, I saw a strategist on CNBC confidently assert 'if the euro rises above US$1.60, the ECB is certain to cut interest rates'. Strangely, I can remember the same strategist claiming, some time ago, that a euro above US$1.40 would trigger rate cuts. Since then, the threshold for a rate reduction has increased incrementally, usually by US$0.05 at a time
(everyone prefers round numbers). US$1.40 became US$1.45, then US$1.50, then US$1.55, and now US$1.60. Yet, weirdly, the euro-area economy hasn't imploded (yet). In fact, yesterday's IFO survey unexpectedly strengthened again, disappointing those who
have been predicting a crash every month for the past six months. Equally distressing for some, French business-confidence also rose, returning to previous cyclical highs. This wasn't supposed to happen. So why is the strong euro apparently having so little impact on the European economy?
Obviously, we shouldn't exaggerate the importance of these two surveys. Other indicators,notably the PMIs, which have historically been be\tter correlated with GDP growth, suggest the economy has slowed more sharply. But equally, some caution is warranted in interpreting these data. The weakness in financial markets seems to be distorting the PMIs,
with the services survey deteriorating sharply every time equities have a bad month (particularly if the weakness occurs at the end of the month, when many of the responses are collected). So while the IFO/INSEE surveys are probably overstating growth, the PMIs might be understating it. As always, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle: the
euro-area economy has slowed, but not dramatically. This is still remarkable given the US economy is probably now in recession (there, I've finally said it) and the euro continues to reach new highs. The euro isn't killing the economy because, in real trade-weighted terms, it isn't hugely
overvalued. The dollar's broad-based decline has limited its impact on the euro's TWI. The ECB prefers to focus on this broad measure of the currency, rather than simple bilateral exchange rates. Yet, there are important differences within the euro area because costs and
prices have diverged sharply in recent years. German companies have kept inflation low and, as a result, their real exchange rate is probably still a little undervalued. In this context, the booming IFO isn't so surprising. Germany is also benefiting from its favourable export
composition; it exports higher value-added goods to rapidly growing markets (notably Asia and eastern Europe). In contrast, Italy, Ireland and Spain have significantly overvalued real exchange rates and are struggling. France is also an interesting case; despite the complaints from politicians, the economy's real exchange rate is probably close to fair value.
It seems people just don't want to buy French-made goods anymore.
The ECB can do nothing to prevent these dynamics within the euro area. In fact, it probably feels it can do little about the strong euro per se. The ECB does not target the exchange rate. It has one target (inflation) and one instrument (interest rates). Given the recent surge in inflation and the likelihood inflation stays above its objective in 2009, some ECB members
(coincidently, those with a German accent) probably feel the rising euro is helpful. It should limit the pass-through from rapidly rising commodity prices. Of course, if the euro increases far enough to lower the ECB's inflation forecast sufficiently, then rate cuts would then become an option. But we'll need to watch the economic data, not the euro-dollar rate, to judge this point. Is currency intervention possible? If the euro rises rapidly, Mr Trichet et al will probably resort to verbal intervention. But they are unlikely to go beyond that. Europe has an embarrassing history of failed currency interventions and given the lack of support
from the Americans, they are unlikely to attempt such action again.
evil stop hunt last night before the down move....
Just saying that a fair few shorts would have been gobbled. Not mine tho. I've been range trading both directions but had closed for the night.
I personally still give credence to Max's notion of 1.7 but it doesnt fit easily with EW counts.
But given its gone up 1200 pips in a couple of months its reasonable to assume a decent sized correction.
Ichimoku cloud support is way down at 1.5 but being a lagging average thats climbing rapidly day by day and the cloud size expands a lot during mid April spreading between 1.52 and 1.55. So if it goes below those levels it will probably be attracted back to them even if only as resistance.
European Banks Move To Ease Money Mkts
Leading European central banks again swooped into money markets to ease liquidity fears as banks wrapped up their first-quarter accounts.
Interest rates in euro-zone money market, in which banks lend to each other for short-term financing needs, have shot up as banks scrambled for funds to balance their books.
The European Central early Monday pumped extra funds into the banking system, allocating EUR15 billion in one-day funds via a liquidity-providing quick tender. In response, Euro-zone interbank overnight rates eased back to 4.04%-4.19%.
You may have seen this but reported in Bloomberg tonight:
``The euro is poised to fall significantly,'' said Akira Takei, who helps oversee the equivalent of $32.9 billion as general manager of international fixed-income investment at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``A slowdown in the U.S. will eventually filter through to Europe. The ECB will be forced to cut.''
Inflation, while ``alarmingly high,'' will slow toward year-end, ECB Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said in comments to reporters today in Dornbirn, Austria.
Traders raised bets the bank will cut its benchmark interest rate this year, with the implied yield on the December Euribor contract falling 2 basis points to 4.15 percent. The ECB left its benchmark interest rate on hold at a six-year high of 4 percent last month.
The euro may fall to $1.5341 by the end of next week provided it weakens below $1.5599, said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co., citing technical charts.
`Double Top'
The first level of so-called support at $1.5599 represents the common European currency's average price for the past 20 days, Tokyo-based Suzuki said. The second support level at $1.5341 is the neckline of a pattern known as a double top, which forms when a currency makes two successive peaks of about the same height.
Bilo
If you refer to my chart in post 619 (21/3) the "double top"
that Mizuho mentions is the reversal point of wave 2 in the
downleg, so this all bodes well for the scenario as per the chart.
rgds - arco
Seems to have turned back up following fridays announcements.
Currently have no position as waiting to see which way it contunues after the data has been digested...
Yes. I was was shorting it until the US labour data came through and it jumped eliminating most of my gains. I think the EUR/USD still has a small chance of completing the double top. If it does my gut feel was that the positive sentiment to the USD would signal the turning of the world away from talking themselves into a more significant recession. Until then we will keep oscillating.
Bilo
Hasnt Eur already done a double top eg Mar 14 and Mar 28 ?
Right now I am thinking (c) of c which if thats correct would mean a doozy down. Eg Mar 14 - Mar 21 was 'a'. Mar 21 to Mar 28 was 'b' Since then c with April 3rd and 4th = (b) and today onwards will will be (c) of c. Breaking the Apr 3rd low at 1.55 is the first confirmation Breaking the Apr 4th high of 1.5744 will negate.
NB I am not very good at EW and my User description IS 'Leg End' ;) but this is what I'm thinking right now.
If anyone (hi Paul!!) wants to correct my EW nomenclature please do so.
Yeh of course it was Mar 17th and Mar 31st for the tops not the 14th or the 28th (thks Arco) . and similar chgs in the rest of the post.
Pics are of course better for describing these things.
Hi Peat
Agree with your comments Peat i am no expert on EW but I
have been watching price action of late and it seems to me maybe EURO has run out of momentum somewhat especially after nfp last Friday which was a disastrous figure but not much happened price wise so even tho the uptrend is still intact at present the probability of a correction is more likely before it moves up again fwiw
cheers roddy
Hi Peat/Roddy
I'm thinking 17/03 could be the '5', and 24/3 could be '(a or 1), and 31/3 could be (b or 2). Therefore the target could be (c) and perhaps 1.4950 ish
rgds - arco
hi guys
its not very clear the action in the euro at the moment
i was looking for a big move down but if that was a wave 1 it looks iffy with such a deep wave 2 retracement , i reckon when it goes past 78.6 its probably not a second wave of an impulse .
the hourly also discounts this as wave 1 down is not a nice 5 wave impulse its a choppy corrective affair
so i have posted 2 possibilities
bearish is a flat or a triangle but not the big wave down i was hoping for
bullish , trendline still intact from feb (green line ) also nice hammer which could act as nice stop loss for a run higher 15511
i get where your coming from roddy as nfp did not precipitate a reactionthat it would have normally done , but still no reason to change opinion at moment in my o
not at all looking like a strong wave down either last night OR certainly not in the last hour. :mad:
Not convinced by this afternoons jump, so are short EURUSD.
That will make it go higher for sure... ;)
maybe an ascending triangle
5 waves labelled A B C D E
three wave internal counts
e may under or overshoot trendline
action currently tested 159 again and looks like its been rejected
should break to upside have buy in above resistance line but would ideally look for entry as
tests lower trendline ( wave E ) completion
Hi Db
yes i see ascending traingle,
this morning 4.30 am just happened to wake up that time went long up about 70 odd pip at present,looking like its only a matter of time 59 will be broken,even tho a few cracks are appearing in EURO,fundamentals
FWIW regarding GBP i think Scott Carney trades the D leg after its past the B point,BUT i havent got his book so dont know whether its coupled with some other set up criteria!
cheers
off to bed on auto pilot
roddy
whereas I've been short as posted and holding against all the adversity. but stops were at 1.5910. :mad: taken and dropped. I sense a joker up in the sky.
Hi PEAT
i was stopped on long trade for an 80 pip loss but made up for it on short GBP,so about break even,however over the last week i have been carrying 80 pip wide stops and have been stopped out twice trying to go long the EURO,
cheers
roddy
If the EURUSD doesn't make a significant break upwards this time around, then the double-top becomes a triple-top.
If this becomes the reality, then it must surely be time for a significant drop? Maybe back below 1.5000?
preferred count after much study
regular flat correction in progress with a minimum target of 15350 but more likely to head
towards sub 149
HOWEVER alternate count respects ascending triangle for final break out to 160 +
as allways time will tell , maybe worth getting on the saddle
Looks like a good spot to short here at 5775 coming back to test the previous uptrendline support
It had also tested 1.5660 and failed to break downwards thru that...
I am starting to see the ascending triangle more now. so if thats the case a clean break of 1.59 would mean about 500 pips up to target 1.64
Hi Peat
There seems to be an EW impulse on the lower time frames (30m/1hr) starting from the low at 1.5671 to the high at 1.5884. Now the current correction appears to be in 3 waves down to 38.2, but that may just be the 'A' leg not the whole move. (I can only count 3 waves on the B? so far). Should that be the correct wave count there may be a move down to circa 5760/5780 creating a Gartley?
Currently watching the 30 min to take advantage of a signal in either/both direction/s
Daily chart. Triple tops have a habit of failing and on a break the plot may form a mini BF (daily chart) with a max projection circa 6150-6250.
arco
Morning All
As mentioned yesterday...................
"there may be a move down to circa 5760/5780 creating a Gartley?"
Overnight spike took the price down to 5752 with the current action
testing the 'B' pivot of the potential Gartley.
No position on Euro at the moment - still waiting.
(I had more confidence in Cable last night with a short from 9718)
rgds - arco
:) Boy.....that was a super Gartley (circa 170 pips so far).......
.......the amazing flying Euro.
If you missed the wagon and dont mind going against the flow,
there night be a few pips south on a retrace from the PTZ
...........(an exercise in nerve control for late night scalpers)
GTA - arco
whereas I'm now thinking this means 1.63 tho for that target really should wait for the daily close. and may also be expected to test (below 1,59) again.
In the face of danger the intrepid butterfly scalper stalked his prey......;)
hmmm sceptical of this breakout
nice to blowout stops and then move lower
short from 159 50
i still think this is pretty close to b wave top
Soros Says Euro Cannot Replace Dollar
The euro cannot replace the U.S. dollar as the world's anchor currency, billionaire financier George Soros said Thursday, warning investors are instead fleeing currencies to put their money into real assets.
"I don't think that the euro can replace the dollar and a system with two major reserve currencies? Not a stable system," he told a Brussels event organized by the Centre for European Policy Studies think tank.
The U.S. dollar's reign as the "unquestionable reserve currency of globalization" allowed the U.S. to run up a "chronic" current account deficit that could have continued indefinitely if rising household debt and a slipping housing market hadn't triggered the current financial crisis, he said.
"What we have now is a period of instability and heightened uncertainty," he said, refusing to "predict the unpredictable" and say when the economy might hit calmer waters again.
Arco, Peat & DA, how does the weekly close tie in with your respective theories?
hi steve
i reckon its still an even contest at the moment
bears got a failed rally from 159+
bulls got a strong bounce of lower triangle border 157
i think 159 test which should happen early this week is key , break through and will set a new high 16050 looks interesting
failure may indicate tops in
my feeling is still bearish but could set a new high and if it did i would take opportunity to take a big short
the rally feels like its fading the news out of US is very ugly yet not firing euro higher
i feel some average euro data may be the catalyst
im short from 15950 stops to breakeven but really just feeling out for confirmation
chart of recent action
ARCO, Please explain why you wouldn't have taken your butterfly profit at 1.5950?
Please just say that you were a bit slow/had it on remote control, and before you knew what was happening it had raced up to 1.5970.
This knowing when to take profits is still an area where I could do better. I frequently end up giving plenty back to the market.
Hi Bilo
My apologies for any confusion.
The post was regarding the new 'Butterfly' formed at the completion of the Gartley target - (light coloured PTZ/PRZ box area in red circle). Please refer to my previous post #652 where I said "there might be a few pips south on a retrace from the PTZ"
My chart was showing the new short order at 1.5923 (I had just entered the position - see profit bar at bottom showing +1). A profit had already been taken on the long Gartley mentioned earlier (at Fib 1.618) and this was a new trade based on the new Butterfly shown below on the amended chart
rgds - arco
Short it is... :)
bearish engulfing on dailies suggesting risk limit is 16018 which does appear to be a
significant top
will attempt to build low risk short entry against this risk limit
Nice drop to 1.5660 as expected. Now, will it continue downwards or will it re-trace back up?
Is this a "dead cat" US dollar bounce?
The Coca-Cola Co
'ITS THE REAL THING'
Closed my short EURUSD a tad early and missed out on that last dip down to 1.5550 but it did retrace back above my exit by closing at 1.5630
Still, I'm more than happy with the profit that has been locked in. :)
sold at 1.5607 S/L 1.5650
IPO (initial profit objective) 1.5536
Hi Peat,
nice gartley there Peat,particularly well done for that hour of the morning!
cheers
roddy
it was a good try Roddy getting awfully close to hitting target , I think it was +62 at one stage , but now closed at only +15 .
hi guys enjoying your posts.
I'm having another go with shorting the Eur @ 1.5717 stop 1.5849 target 1.5510.
another totally perfect gartley here displayed on the hourly.
The logic is in the pattern Bilo. Also there is Divergence on the RSI Hourly. I tend not to believe the fundamentals much and just go with the shapes.
But yeh the trade could go wrong. Perhaps I should've waited for some confirmation that this was a turning point - not really any of that yet to be sure.
It seems to have taken a big tumble last night. This is why I don't trade the news :D:eek:. In fact it was sounding like the US-German trade dispute right before the crash of 87/
so my bearish gartley post 671 failed pretty well. with price cutting through X by nearly 100 pips taking out -145 stop. so I interpreted this as a bullish signal. The 300 pip correction did come tho and I started buying this time on the 4th but it was catching falling knives and resulted in 2 -30's. Showed more patience till the 9th by which time a small bullish gartley hinted at some change in direction and since then had 4 overnight +90s and a -18.
There has been heaps of articles suggesting that the USD is toast again following panic about freddie mac and fannie mae and the 2nd failed bank picked up by the fed. Everyone had been picking the Euro to reach a new high v USD. Stunning about turn tho - equally stunning affect on the POO but that had an even more nasty correction.
Hi Peat,
those are some great gains there peat,let me know when you start selling signals and I ll be your first customer!
roddy
took 100 again tonite on a double sized trade... have closed now.
silver and gold confirming the demise of the USD.
hmm morning peat
what a night had a few trade set ups firing all over the place
made a bag on short usd jpy , good short on eur chf and had a nibble on eur usd long through 160 but that got stopped
i will post a few charts
my feeling at the moment is 160 is now weakened and will not hold looking at 163 + on eur
usd jpy broke some serious channels so have been waiting for this one to go lower
i reckon its the equities driving things at the moment , i have big shorts on for a while on dow now but starting to get a little nervous and may cover
having to get up through night to assess action which i hate doing but its sooo volatile
really looked like a massive hammer was going to print but saved by another wave of selling
anyway all good
Hi Peat/DB
yeah not quite as sharp as you Peat but managed 70 pips between Euro and kiwi
last nite
roddy
Have been a bit patient but thought the double doji and then the triangle breakout (well I went a bit early actually) were sufficient enticement for another long - almost got stopped with a -30 pip set, and have now moved that to break even - currently +60.
this might be a little help peat for a what is shaping up to be a bullish gartley
a = C at 157 risk at 156 for a run at 163
yeh that was always a bit of a b wave I guess and c wave violence hit hard and fast .... oh well nothing lost with stop at b/e
da
I looked a that one but was not convinced it would go back up but instead might continue down to continue the aftermath (gartley?) of a rough major butterfly on the 3 monthly...the RSI was down sharply...
hi bilo , look its a possibility however c waves are sharp moves but in the end a correction to main trend
if the gartley prints at around 1.57 then im wrong at 1.56, but if correct minimum requirement is a run at 16040 and im picking higher 1.63.
so risk a 100 for 350 or even 600 which is a good risk reward
it will depend a lot on how action looks heading into 157 before you can make this trade though
hi peat , just checking the daily metastock
eur usd has posted a bearish engulfing and broke a trendline
possible this is the start of a bigger move lower
i have broken a rule and sold against trend more as a hedge to ride down to 157
will probably end in tears
hey da
been working the dayjob tonite so only watching seems like you've got some down pips at this stage tho....
the long term holding of AG is getting hammered so thats enough pain for me atm. sold some at 19 but still it affects the a/c balance quite badly when it falls this much.
i'll be looking for some confirmation before longing Eur now....
sorry to hear about ag , eur usd nearly at target , just waiting for final leg lower to 15710
http://i36.tinypic.com/2iablo6.gif
Holding AG long term is my response to not being that great a short term trader DA.
But of the Euro, has it turned again. I think so , long again from 1.57.
you say I'm spot on but you're short :confused: haha
If I was trading for a living I would be looking to take profits more frequently there have been more pips on offer than I've collected.
but re going long I'm not seeing anything contradicting me yet , thoI am mindful that at some stage we could be forming a bearish pattern again.
Look, I was just congratulating you for bagging 70 pips when you’re completely wrong
seriously i'm still looking at a c wave completing soon 157 90 looks like a possible but i'm banking on it not getting that far.
i,ve flipped on this one and still reckon up move is corrective but time will tell
out on the break of the hourly trendline.
Hi All,
good to see you back Arco
Thanks Roddy
I also spotted that BF setup and scalped 20 pips earlier
off the 30 min chart.
rgds - arco
.........
Euro building up nicely for a possible tack towards +/- 1.5800
IMO after completing the current 3 waves down on smaller time
frames to perhaps 5550 ish - (or may be spiky later).
Not quite up to speed yet but its NFP later today
so prepare for a hairy ride.........larger than normal stops :rolleyes:
bullish gartley on smaller time frame may provide an good low risk entry arco
long 15550 sl 15520 target 158
here's my bigger picture
wave c of correction of 5 waves down hopefully heading 157 to 158
my only concern is that quite a few traders are talking about this set up
so... taking a cautious approach and really waiting to go short at higher level
I was lookin at the ichimoku on the Euro$ daily last night and noticed that it would be pretty easy for it to get back to 1.5750/5800 levels - thats where the cloud goes anyway.