TUI Oil Production - Tapis oil price at $US80!
TUI Oil Production:
$US80 per bbl Tapis = approx $NZ115 (at today's prices)
Lets see.... 47k bbl/day @ $NZ115 = $NZ5.4m per day (gross)
PPP's share @ 10% = $NZ540,000 per day = $16.2M per 30day month = $NZ48.6M over 3 months (gross).
Now if 47,000 bbl/day was kept up for even 6 months, that would be gross $NZ97.2M!!!
That is HUGE!
This has to be good
And with a highly probable second reserves upgrade in the next 2 or 3 months!
PPP may well gross close to $NZ200M for a years production!!! Especially if the crude oil price continues to increase which it may well do.
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm
Somebodies really selling...
I think some people might be panicking and just want out or need the money.
I say that because PPP is looking the best it ever has.
1. Tui is producing well with one upgrade and more to come (I think that is quite safe to say).
2. Maitland 2/3H is looking good and a 500m horizontal well is going to flow substantially more than approx. 20m vertical well. That's how I see it but core tests do have to be done.
3. Maitland has Apache as Operator and Santos with a big stake too. These boys are not silly, they are there to make money.
4. Apache thinks the reserves are over 3 times what they have "in place" now.
Sharp
Genuine Take Over Target? I think so.
You know, if Maitland comes in also, and with the expected reserves increase that Apache thinks it has, PPP would have to be a genuine take over target eh.
Just my thoughts and with the bucket loads of cash coming in now with oil prices over US$80 bbl...I make PPP's gross share after 2 months (by end of Sept) approx. NZ$28-29M Gross....that's about an average of say 46,000bbl/day @ around NZ$105 average.
So after 4 months would be between NZ$56 to NZ$60M Gross at present prices. Man, that has to be good.
Now if and when Maitland comes in, what would be the cash flow be from that development?
In a few weeks, if the Maitland flow testing etc is indeed positive, PPP would have to be and attractive take over target I would think
Sharp
Nice article on WA Gas Prices on a BIG rise….
"WA domestic gas prices 'to quadruple'
September 27, 2007 - 7:29PM
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Domestic gas prices in Western Australia could quadruple over the next few years, says a report by broking house Argonaut Securities.
Report author analyst Ian Christie says the days of $2 gas gone and a short-term supply gap will spike prices at between $7 and $10 per gigajoule in the next two to three years until new supply comes on line early next decade.
"WA gas prices have been out of line internationally for some time, and a sharp realignment was always on the cards," Mr Christie said.
"LNG producers, for example, who are enjoying rapidly growing export demand and negotiating prices above $10 per gigajoule, will be seeking competitive prices for gas sold domestically."
He said the costs of finding, developing and producing gas were picking up sharply.
"... gas is more distant, deeper, dirtier and drier (and) will ensure a higher floor for prices even when new supply comes on stream."
Mr Christie said gas producers that can deliver uncontracted gas - Santos, Tap Oil and possibly ARC Energy - were in a strong position to negotiate terms.
Large commercial consumers that have not yet tied down their energy requirements, such as new mines, could lose out, he warned....."
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Busine...486476754.html
Sharp
Still waiting for Maitland results.....
But, check out pages 6,7,13,14&27 of this presentation by TAP oil just released....
Now that's interesting!
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2007101...dfyy8szkpb.pdf
Sharp
Heck....Could this possibly mean a bid for PPP?
Quote from Mr Tommy on NOG's forum:
By NICK SMITH - Independent Financial Review | Wednesday, 17 October 2007
New Zealand Oil and Gas is seeking more oil assets and is prepared to look offshore.
With a new chief executive and oil revenues beginning to flow, the company has set itself the ambitious target of nearly doubling next year's production of more than 1.1 million equivalent barrels of oil in just four years.
"We're going to have to look at asset and corporate acquisition," says David Salisbury, a 40-year-old Taranaki native raised in the 1970s when Bill Birch's Think Big scheme pumped millions into provincial New Zealand's economy.
Salisbury, six months into the job and having seen subsidiary Pike River Coal successfully floated, says growth will come solely from NZOG's core business exploration, development and production of oil and gas.
Existing sources will peak around 1.3 million of barrels of oil equivalent in 2010, tailing off to just over 1 million in 2012 and 750,000 in 2015.
NZOG is confident of exploiting its existing Taranaki prospects but even so, for the equivalent of two million barrels by 2012, it will need to go to the market for funding to buy.
"The exploration we're looking at is New Zealand focused at this stage. We're going to have a very strong go at growing and we want it in meaningful tranches."
The high level of inherent risk and investment needed by the industry requires a sustained return.
"That's what makes us look at acquisition."
The company is working on a number of strategies to fund future acquisition. Much depends on the size of the target but Salisbury says it could include further debt, going to the equity market, share placement, issuing equity to another company or even forward selling oil production.
On the government's new energy strategy putting a 10-year ban on state-owned gas or coal-fired power plants, he says there is still a strong domestic need for gas and "any gas we find will find a home".
"It certainly doesn't put NZOG off from further exploration."
For a company that recorded revenue around $18 million last year "it was a series of one-offs" and whose production only started properly this year, its chief executive is bullish.
Are peak oil prices causing a rush of blood? "It's not a bad rule of thumb to look at a barrel of oil as being worth about $100," is his riposte, noting many expect the price of oil to top US$100 a barrel this year.
It costs hundreds of millions of dollars to develop a site but at those prices ``we expect the fields to be profitable for up to 10 years".
"This year we've already sold around 300,000 barrels of oil." By financial year's end it will be just shy of 1.2 million $120 million by Salisbury's rule of thumb.
The company has a record of moving quickly. While the Tui field is based on decades of data, actual oil discovery was recent: "To go from discovery to production in a four-year window is very, very good going."
Tui has transformed the company. "While we're not going to acquire Shell in the next couple of years'' it is suddenly earning significant cash.
How significant? In August, Statistics New Zealand recorded its largest amount of crude exports for one month. August also broke the record for receipts to Australia, our largest trading partner.
"September's presumably going to do the same."
It's not just Tui but Kupe, ``which most people think is only a gas field".
Gas is great but its off-products are more profitable. While Kupe holds 254 petajoules of gas, it will also produce 1.1 million tonnes of LPG and, more importantly, 14.7 million barrels of condensate, a light oil similar to the top-shelf product produced by Tui.
Kupe is on track for production in mid-2009, Salisbury says.
The 30 kilometres of pipeline connecting the well-head to the production station is at Port Marlborough and is ready to be welded and installed. The "jacket" the legs of the platform are in Port Taranaki. The platform top will be finished in Thailand and shipped to New Zealand by the end of the month.
It's Tonka toys times ten: "When you spend $1 billion, you get some pretty pieces of kit."
TAP comments are very positive
I have been away shootin' n huntin' for the weekend :)
But just looking at the TAP comment and I agree with you machine that it is indeed very positive. Just also remember, this flow test is from ONE well....Development wells would number 4 or more I would think.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2007102...81sny0v945.pdf
Now I wonder why PPP management are not commenting like TAP are? To me, this is a "no brainer", it will be developed. It's just a matter now of doing the technical data/calculations from this well and then the vertical appraisals to settling just how much is there. On the positive side, this may confirm reserve upgrades that Apache have been hinting at.
The drop in share price I think is only temporary so I wouldn't worry there. Bit surprising though and seems to show that some people want out. I think they will lose out.
Sharp
Maitland 3H plugged and abandoned "as planned."
Far from it. Check the above link to the TAP report. It says that "Tap is very pleased..."
Now they are looking at drilling up to another 2 wells into Maitland just to see/check the extent of the gas field. It is certainly looking like another development and that Maitland 3H well was only an appraisal well, not a development well. They come later from the platform put in the most suitable position within the field so that they can reach all corners of the field. That's how I see it anyways.
Sharp
NOG's recent aquistion comments by David Salisbury...
".....The exploration we're looking at is New Zealand focused at this stage. We're going to have a very strong go at growing and we want it in meaningful tranches."
The high level of inherent risk and investment needed by the industry requires a sustained return.
"That's what makes us look at acquisition."
The company is working on a number of strategies to fund future acquisition. Much depends on the size of the target but Salisbury says it could include further debt, going to the equity market, share placement, issuing equity to another company or even forward selling oil production...."
It's this sort of comment that has me wondering. Definitely companies are being lined up....Is PPP one of them?
Sharp
Chairman Tony Radford's annual address
Tui 4H development well next year with likely increased Tui oil reserves
Maitland looking good...development possible by 2010
More exploration etc
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2007111...241vgljkt2.pdf
Sharp