Hope you got onboard, Xerof.
Been a lovely easy play so far - 65 cents vs entry price of 54 cents = 20% gain in 2 months!
Thanks to Dodgie Georgie.
Printable View
Gee, thanks for thinking of me Balance. My view is well known, and summarised in post #541 on this thread. All going to expectation, and now entering the high risk/high return zone around that second tranche of 'reluctant' underwriting level of 65 cents, where supply MIGHT appear, but if that overhang is not too distressed, perhaps they will risk waiting for the RBNZ decision in November
I do not hold and will not buy. That has always been my position since warning you people years ago that buying PGC/heartland spin-off was a bad idea. I sincerely wish all long term holders luck, and hope the price does return to somewhere near your entry prices.
I dont expect you will need to ask me again Balance, if I got in.....i suggested the fog had lifted, but stated very clearly that I would not be buying
Trying to understand this post.The banking licence appears to be ahead of shedule,the business appears to be well run and on course,the trading volume of shares is steady,and appears to be attracting long term holders.I would have thought it would be earnings,earnings growth and prospects,together with dividends that would drive the share price.?
Appearances can be deceptive Perc :)
Disc. Holding
65 cents could see the underwritten stock come out - maybe but unlikely in my opinion.
The biggest chunk of the underwritten stock went to PGC and that's gone.
I suspect the other underwriters got out when the going went tough ad most of the stock has gone to the likes of Tomlinson and Philip Carter. They are multi-millionaires because they have holding power.
This could be a great long term hold, especially so when they start paying dividends.
I finally bought a few days back @55c and lucky days The Heart has risen steadily since. Thanks to all the Groovy Gurus posts to page 45 a good story. .
By and large, good people on this site whose postings are well worthwhile following.
You just have to watch out for the ones who turn abusive when your opinion does not concur with theirs. NOG and PRC are best/worse examples if you want to look at some of the postings there. Then, the idea is to have some fun with them by stringing them along and winding them up even more.
Have received an offer of .40 ( Forty Cents ) for some of my share holding in HNZ today..
From...
Stock & Share Trading Company Pty Ltd.
Yes I know that most, if not ALL on this site know about them..
Is it any wonder that Mom and Pop stay away from investing ??
How can we Name and Shame .. These Parasites ??
Use the reply form as Arse wipe and post !!.. ( Paying from your own pocket the mail cost.. )..
Then wait for the " stink " to arise from the Posties..
It sure will make headlines for ... Stock & Share Trading Company Pty Ltd.
My Acceptance Form will be in the post tomorrow..
Only 2 mill shares !!.. You must be hard on his heels by now Perc :-))
Only wish?
The Aussie guy's name is Tweed.He is hated in Aussie.Regulations are making it more difficult for the low-ballers,but they still do too well.
In NZ there is Whimp,but I believe Phil Briggs [ex The A letter] has tried his hand at it.Briggs surprised me because I thought highly of him.
Nothing to do with Mom and Pop in NZ not investing in the share market, I thinkth.
Happens in the States and other countries as well:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...s-brakes-go-on
Heaps more losses for Mom and Pop from property related and finance companies scams in NZ - e.g.. Blue Chip and just about every second finance company.
The media does a decent job of naming and shaming but the victims targeted tend to be totally ignorant about what their shares are really worth and obtained their shares from legacies, trusts, estates etc.
FMA totally useless - let the free market rule!
Thanks, Dodgie Georgie!
69 cents moving towards 88 cents.
Riches have their down side Perc.. Think of all the Woollie Pullie salesmen who will now be banging on your door :scared:
Oyvey Percy my son.. Do not be so hard on yourself..
As a special offer to you.. I will take all of your useless HNZ shares at the very good price of..
Hmm..hmm.hmmmmm.. @.... No !!.. @... Hmmm.. Hmmmmmmmm...
My wife will kill me.. Hmm 41 cents... So much better than my Aussie cousin..
I take the bread from my childrens mouth to do it ..
Insert Tui ad..
Belgarion trembles :-))
I know your holding Perc.. you know mine.. Back slapping all around eh !!..
Seems to have stalled at 70c.
Anyone want to guess when the decision on the banking licence will come out?
To bank or not to bank, that is the question..
I have been looking at the deposit rates comparative website as accessed through sharechat.
http://www.depositrates.co.nz/
The 90 day rate at Heartland (rated BBB-) is 4.4% verses 3.25% for the major banks (rated AA-).
This is encouraging if you think what kind of on lending these funds will experience. It means that Heartland must have customers willing to borrow at a higher rate than the major banks. This is what Heartland needs to survive.
A banking licence may reduce borrowing costs in the medium term. But it is not a game breaker for Heartland IMO. What Heartland needs is more customers and more capital. The banking licence I see as a second line bonus.
SNOOPY
We are all waiting with 'baited breath".!!!!! The AGM has been put off until Nov 30th as they expect a decision in November.Whether we get an announcement before the AGM or not I do not know,however I would expect HNZ to make an announcement as soon as they know.
At least if it dooesn't get a banking license it will identify where Heartland is deficient. This wil provide certainty for the application next time. Therefore I am hoping that the downside if it misses out will be minimal....
On the upside, I would be interested to hear informed opinion about what a banking license is worth. The share price at the moment relfects the markets value of the company. How will a bank license change this? Perhaps growth in customers due to it no longer being considered as just another finance company? Does anyone have an estimate for the upside for the share price?
Well it would be a bit of a stretch to claim anything i say is 'informed' but my best guess is that a banking licence will allow Heartland to offer lower deposit rates to customers. As an example Co-Op Bank is offering between 4.1% to 4.8% over various terms, where as Heartland is offering 4.9% to 5.5%. Both have BBB- credit ratings.
My rough (very!!) numbers are that with about $2 billion in borrowing, so each 0.1% decrease in borrowing cost is worth $20m to Heartland. Given the approx 390 million shares, each 0.1% decrease in borrowing could be worth 5c per share.
So the question is, how much can they reduce their borrow costs by and how quickly can they do it?
I am told that the Cooperative Bank are more than pleased at the number of new customers they are pulling in with their current campaign ... pretty soft sell but that is probably what the potential punters like
Know a couple of largish worksites they have visited touting business and offering introductory deals
I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't taken some Heartland customers ... healthy competition eh
I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't taken some Heartland customers ... healthy competition eh[/QUOTE]
Yeah Right.!!!!??!!! lol.
Well me old met Percy ... The Cooperative BANK got some of my dosh (the protest against the oz greedy banks sort of ....I'll teach them a lesson ha ha) and further more I would prefer my cash be used to help me and my fellow depositors than for you and your fellow shareholders
Never mind ...doubt whether it will make any difference to the world
If they miss out on a banking license this time around, they might be a quick "Buy" on the dip before they bounce back...
Dead cert then .....and most have expected it to be forthcoming eh
Will make the AGM a bit of a non event.
The finance head honcho said becoming a bank was only a marketing ploy ....cynically nothing else but that he said
He get his way soon ....painting BANK on all the signs
Sign writers doing ok at the mo .....green to blue and a few BANK signs .....hope they don't misspell
The fundies have made their play belg... long ago.. As have we... slowly building up..
I really do not think that a few hovering punters is going to make much difference in the price in the next four days..
Time will tell of course..
The dice have been thrown... " SNAKE EYE's ".. eh !!.. Percy ??..
Still think that it is a good investment with or with out the licence..
One would think that with the Bank Licence announcement and the commencement of dividend payments in the near future , that the share price should edge closer to at least NTA value.
"BULLS EYE" I hope.
Still a good investment.Even better with a banking licence.
Dividend ???? Well they have had nearly 5 months trading this year so must know how they are trading.Announcing a divie at the AGM would certainly bring happiness to all of us who fronted up with the recap of PGC.Been a bit of a wait,and a bit of a rocky road.
and a bit of a " rocky road ".. Hahaaa.. Good " Heartland " words Percy.. ... Never did understand what it was until my Kiwi children had it on their top of their wish list..
Anyone care to wager what they will do once they get bank registration? Will it be nationwide rollout of branches and a heavy marketing campaign? Or more like BAU with an enhanced status going forward?
A banking license could help make it a nice takeover target once it got a network of branches and a decent customer base..
Very true and with a decent customer base in our environment, that would probably make them rather profitable. Looking at Kiwibanks record over the past few years, its not a bad market to be in if you can make get all your systems and branches up and running pretty quickly. Last year kiwibanks profits were at 21 million... roughly the same as Heartlands this year. Kiwibanks profits this year = 80 million. All the big banks in NZ are making rather large profits, if Heartland could convince many of their customers to come over based on better margins and it being only NZX listed... how much in the way of overseas interests are holding shares? Anyone know?
Will getting or not getting a banking license have much of an affect on the shareprice with all the hype atm??? This was my personal problem question.
Having a look to see what has happening with the other BBB rated banks...such as SBS and the Co-operative Bank (old PSIS) may give some indication to what lies ahead for Heartland with its own BBB- rating (the lowest investment grade credit rating) when (if) they obtain that license.
The big players the 4 Australian owned AA banks BNZ ANZ Westpac ASB,, the AA Kiwibank and the AA dutch Rabobank have the best quality customers and they dominate the banking sector.... Credit ratings really do affect the banking business.....You need good quality customers from a variety of markets to lower the risk and increase the credit rating, so there's a bit of a "Catch 22" here.....Using TSB as a BBB bank example....it has a great customer satisfaction image, but even with this great image it is finding it slow going to expand with good customers and diversify out of Taranaki.
There is plenty of positive hype out there...I'm probably unduly pessimistic but I find it hard to get overly excited about Heartlands future prospects in this tough market.
Disc: recently sold.. held 4 months +20% return.... I'm happy with that for now.
Medium term yes i think your right, but i am expecting a mini rush for the door today, all those that were waiting for the banking licence announcement will exit and then try to re-enter again in 3 weeks time i suspect.
Just in regards to the dividend, my memory seems to recall that they said they would be announcing the dividend policy, BUT that they would not be paying any retrospective dividends, so i think we will get a policy but will be waiting sometime for an actual payment? Anyone else remember the same thing?
You are correct;dividend policy to be announced at AGM.
I am sure the directors will be mindfull, that sharholders put up the money for the recap of PGC, so as HNZ could be formed in late 2009,and have not had any dividends since that time.
With nearly 5 months trading this year they will have a good idea how they are trading,so that raises my hopes for an early divie,keeping in mind shareholders too will be disappointed with the delay on the banking licence decision.
No No No Turmeric......there is no strong support at 70....There is strong reistance at 70.
HNZ uptrend has paused. This is quite common after a rapid uptrend ..the stock is taking a breather due to exhaustion....the short termers are profit taking together with a decrease of buyer demand .....
HNZ has tested the 70 c resistance and has so far failed...this is seen as bearish...however for the optimists... just recently I think there has been some positive TA signals (people with Metastock with EOD data feed may confirm this)...if so then that 70c resistance could be under threat and a likelihood of HNZ breaking through that 70c barrier....this would be seen as bullish and a rapid resumption of the uptrend will occur.
Lack of Yahoo data for HNZ makes Incredible Charts useless so this simple chart below has to suffice.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...nz26112012.gif
Once the dividend policy is set at AGM and shareholders get used to the realisation that a banking licence is a distinct 99.99%possibility and the advantages that will bring to the business, then I would expect the sp to firm and advance towards NTA value. like you Percy , I'd like an early dividend but not holding my breath.
I think the charts are interesting but will they predict the banking licence because I expect either way a spike or plunge will occur?
Maybe.....with a word of caution
If the privileged few receive news before the official announcement the TA may**** pick it up.
Info leakage from a company is a big no no but I have seen it often enough though TA. Evidence is hard to prove though as sometimes Mr Market simply takes a punt beforehand so this action makes it all difficult to know which.
******Also.... remember there are a lot of devious bastards out there... With semi or illiquid stocks they can manipulate the shareprice to create a false signals e.g the resulting signals from an induced fake out or shake out. An alert experienced TA investor can read the danger signs and smell a rat...the lesser experienced TA fall for it then criticises that TA doesn't work and their stop loss strategies don't work either.
Thanks Hoop - sounds reasonable.
Not likely - another contaminated halfbaked kiwi go nowhere stock. Just what we need is another bank. Sorry, sold out at 70 .HAND
You guys make out that potential divies will do wonders for the share price .... ie dividend intentions is price sensitive?
Do you believe they have not yet made up their mind what to do? Of course not ... they want something to give their ego a boost at the AGM
Somebody mentioned 'leakage of information' .... insiders in an uninformed market in other words ... but some know
Shouldn't they be telling you NOW if they know (seeing you mostly think it is price sensitive info) ...... disclosure and all taht of stuff
But then HNZ will say the BOARD has yet to ratify the policy so they can keep it secret and give themselves a thrill at the AGM .... or maybe the Chairman will make it up on the spot on Friday .... ha ha
That's the way markets work all around the world - it's all about who has access to the best information in the short term.
Often those who make a quick buck on a short term information advantage loses out in the longer term to those who take the infor and load up or bail out.
I think the most critical thing to come out of HNZ's AGM is not the divie but how are they going with their distressed property portfolio.
The underwrite from PGC is gone and from hereon in, any further deterioration will hit their bottom line and brings into question their capital adequacy.
If that were the case the statement from HNZ "HNZ is not aware of any open issues etc" is incorrect.
I just don't see that being so.They were in talks with the Reserve Bank for months before they put in the application.They would not have put it in if there were any "open issues," which capital adequacy certainly is.
Janner I agree with you on this. HNZ has a long way to go to compete with the major banks for customers, at least customers like me (and most Sharetrader members I think), which are customers I think most banks would like. I have so far not seen them make any serious attempt at getting my business (business & private) and it concerns me as a shareholder.
I do 90% of my personal and business banking online and want 98%. HNZ is not up to scratch with any of the "Ozzie banks"on this front. I am still holding but am concerned about this issue and am struggling to see how they are going to grow this part of their business. More car and high interest personal(risky) loans simply do not do it for me !
I don't see them in this space.Maybe they will be like SBS and get Westpac to do a lot of the "back office" work.
Bank,bank licence to me is really to get cheaper funds.Marac, and farm loans via PGW, and machinery/equipment loans and more of what they are doing well at present. More like UDC with a bank licence.Don't see hundreds of branches.They already have a good spread through out the country.
Head honcho numbers man said getting a banking licence was just a marketing ploy .... giving the brand credibility and all that sort of stuff
Cynical approach but good on him for being honest
Do you get dressed to the nines for the ASM .... or seeing a bit chilly in Ashburton today a shirt and the pullover do?
A too see banking licence as a "marketing"ploy,as investors/advisers are more secure investing in a bank, rather than a building society or finance company.
For the AGM thick woolly suit, or for Percy the pullover, as it is very cold down here today.
Usually at these meetings it is well worth looking at the standard of dress,wonderfull good cloth and fine shoes.
Come on guys you no the drill you turn up on the john Deere with ya Swani on unless yer one of those soft hand townies.
Oh and by the way Heartland actually own the John Deer and i think maybe even the Swani .
Good one percy you may not know it but you can actually get a spray that smells like old fermented silage which a lot of town boys use to smell more macho, but us country boys just smear our selves in udder cream works a treat. Go Heartland.
Looks like all those wanting a nominal divie just got their wish 1.5c ex Dec 14!
Ha haa, check out their AGM presentation page 16 "Bank Registration Update", followed quickly by "Strategy Update". Nothing to say on that matter...
Looks like good news as far as I am concerned.
Some good points as I see it:
They are looking for greater balance in their loan books - great for stability longterm.
The statement "Our emphasis is on cash flow and the drivers of productivity", in some ways, I would hope so, but again points to a higher stability strategy (better future ratings) if they pull it off.
They are creating new products aimed at retail sector (education/security&income/health/retirement) which will be interesting to see how they turn out... these sound innovative at least
Concerns:
Day to day banking (outsource) - does this mean they let some other bank handle their general account/back office banking functions? This seems to be a rather large risk... anyone at the AGM care to indicate where they are going with this? Does this answer the question about their IT systems any? Maybe they aren't investing in one themselves (which would be rather silly I would think) but are relying on others to provide?
And as they are looking at becoming a real bank, I would expect that an investment in their own infrastructure to be a smart thing.
Buying a banking system from an international vendor now wouldn't be such a bad idea with the high NZ $$ it shouldn't cost you too much. Also with a small customer base, transferring them over to a new system isn't going to be enormously costly. Doing these things in 3-5 years time however would be dramatically more costly, I would think, as the NZ dollar probably won't be as high as it is (I am prepared to eat those words) and they will probably have many more customers and product offerings. As an IT guy that has been working on the ANZ/National Bank transition, I do have some cred when it comes to these statements!
As they look to add new products to their offerings, it does make me wonder what IT system they have backing their ability to do so. They obviously have something now, but it doesn't sound like its a full blown system. Early investment in sound IT infrastructure for a new bank is an investment in their future. Under investment is likely to damage them.
With a few dozen million in the bank, they could probably purchase/migrate customers over to their own system which is under their control and/or buy the extra modules to turn your system into a fully blown one. It is also likely to lower their institutional risk which would make them a (hopefully) more stable and profitable banking platform. Using a vendor as your core system provider though... you can only offer similar offerings to those that are offered by your vendors bank, essentially you are stuck in their business. You are also a competitor to the person providing your service, not really a good position to be in.
A very positive well attended AGM.Tone of the meeting was good.Chairman let the meeting flow.The presentations were excellent.Questions from the floor were answered well.A friendly meeting.The chairman said they were looking at a number of acquisitions opportunities.
Balance.The chairman said a growing lending book will result in negative cashflow and said note 12 in annual report tried to set this out.
Plenty of space for HNZ in their markets without taking on the major banks. Low profile is because they decided to save their advertising money until the banking licence.Then they will go for it.
Good to run into Forest and his wife.
Sometimes I have been concerned I have pushed HNZ too much on sharetrader,[may be bias ?].Well after today's agm I feel vindicated,and any one buying on my say so;,you have done the right thing.A very well run company,strong depositor base,good clients,doing well in the sectors they want to be.Good board,good MD,who is keen to get return on equity into double didgets as soon as possible.A company that knows where they are want be and how they are going to get there.STRONG BUY>
And to top it all off yahoo now have the data for incrediblecharts,now it just has to break the 70c resistance and away we go.
Blobbles, last I heard they run on Finzsoft's Sovereign. Might not be current, but if so, doesn't clang my bell for mainstream banking
Thanks for the AGM report Percy.
Thanks for your report Percy. I understand what you say about HNZ not taking on the big banks at their game (previous posts) but it stills concerns me as a shareholder that they do not intend to be a real bank. I am overweight on this stock and watching with interest, so very much appreciate the opposing and challenging posts we see on Sharetrader
They are not the new Westpac.Not trying to be. In fact they are staying away from the big boys.There is space for them. Reread the presentation,and see where they are.
They have done everything [bar the bank licence] they said they would.I can only say that if I was overweight I would go to bed having sweet dreams tonight after today's after todays agm.A friend of mine is overweight in them too,and couldn't attend the agm.I sent him an email saying "you should have brought more." !!!!!!!!!!
Depends what you really mean by real bank.I take it internet banking etc,which I believe they can do now.Clanging Xerof's bells, I don't think they ever will.
You have an investment in a fine company.Sweet dreams.
ps.Please come to next agm.I hope Forest shares with us his throughts on the agm.
Hi Percy
Thanks very much for attending the AGM and your most helpfull and informative report. Hard to believe that you were at the same meeting as the chap from the "Press" !! :D
Cheers
The Press have again let down their readers [again] with such poor coverage.
Pity they thought it was so important to report the old girl and retired [20 or 30 years ago] diary farmer,who thought they were at the PGC agm.!!!!
Luckily the HNZ presentation is available on NZX site under announcements.