Apologising to South korea and the phillipines for ww2 crimes could help in the anti-china coalition.
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Apologising to South korea and the phillipines for ww2 crimes could help in the anti-china coalition.
i'd not expect too much from the new PM if i were you...from the same privileged background like all his predecessors...and if he continues to visit the Yasukuni Shrine then forget about apologising for war time crimes. watched a secretly film video recently on YT on Yasukuni shrine, shocking that a large number of Japanese still believe the war was justified and inevitable.
https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/what-e...rn-from-seoul/
Kishida’s early plan to hike capital gains taxes is now off the table. Japan’s export giants are pushing back on change,
chaebol-style. So are policy changes to increase competitiveness and give corporate chieftains confidence to hike wages
and take new risks. The priority, already, has shifted to increased stimulus to boost growth, not supply-side upgrades.
Part of Kishida’s problem is he’s not his own man. He was chosen by the LDP for his lack of activism – the “safe” choice.
Former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso are calling the shots.
“Kishida’s faction is the fifth largest; the head of the fourth hates him,” says analyst Nicholas Smith at CLSA Japan.
“Kishida is wholly beholden to Abe and Aso, the heads of the top two by-far-largest factions, who put him in the job.
If they don’t want him to hike capital gains tax, and they don’t, he wouldn’t survive defying them.”
Just for a change of scenery. . . .
https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/why-...ks-in-nigeria/
https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/how-china-lost-nigeria/
https://navellier.com/wp-content/upl...er-15-2021.m4a
Expecting stunning US earnings results next week, discusses the surprise big retail sales numbers
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-...ts-2021-10-17/
Good news.
Means the possibility of war breaking up between US & China abating.
To be honest - not quite sure whom I would prefer to have at the moment the finger closer to the trigger - US or China? While the US clearly frequently misbehaved after WWII and brought war, destruction, dictatorship and death to many countries ... Xi and his China seem currently quite keen to grow into the role Hitler and Germany did play prior to and during WWII.
Internal detention and "reeducation" camps ... Hitler had his Jews and Xi has his Uygurs.
Brutal suppression of free speech and no free press in both countries
Both used to love Sable rattling (and applying them, too) and clear and open threats to attack neighboring countries in order to bring them "home" fit nicely into the picture.
China started (many decades ago) with occupying the independent Tibet with military force, killing millions and sending more into reeducation camps. China took recently Hongkong with force breaking international commitments and it is now openly threatening to attack Taiwan with military force.
Sure - all these areas used to be at some time or another in history part of some Chinese empire or kingdom, but then - both Czechia as well as parts of Poland used to be at some stage parts of some German country either before Hitler "took them back". German settlers used to be as well in parts of the Soviet union and most other East European countries Hitler used to attack.
Don't forget - the Maoris came from Taiwan - i.e. following the Chinese logic, NZ clearly must be Taiwanese. Given that Taiwan belongs to China this would mean - again following Chinese logic - that China could claim the "right" to occupy NZ next in order to bring us back into the land of the middle. Hey - the people whose country they say they have a right to occupy - have been here first!
Obviously - they might first take the Americas ... at the end of the day it was Chinese settlers who moved some 15,000 years ago across the the Bering street and invaded both North and later South America.
More and more sophisticated weapons in this scenario won't do anybody any good.
I suspect China will not make a move to change the staus quo in the South China sea this year. Firstly, with the Olympic coming up in Feb 22 it would not risk Western countries boycotting the game. Secondly, as widely reported, China's own industry is heavily dependent on TSMC to to supply high end chips so it'd be silly to shoot itself in the foot by causing further disruption to the supply chain.
Going by the comments I just heard on National radio news, by Mike Smith, of Iwi Forum Pandemic Response Group, & One Tree Hill chainsaw infamy, Maori are not from Taiwan, they are from another planet!
Cant all human beings see the benefit of a covid jab, and just get on with it?
Vaccine equity, a new buzz word eh Mike?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operat...ssoms_at_Night
Scrapped for logistical reasons, rather than being immoral.
It's lucky a certain bomb ended things.
2027 Taiwan?
China Has World’s Largest Navy With 355 Ships and Counting, Says Pentagon
https://news.usni.org/2021/11/03/chi...eid=cc0f71bf89
Good question.
I have no doubt that the PRC could invade and drown Taiwan already now with soldiers, if that's what they wanted.
The consequences for the world economy (including China) would be a disaster - next to other things ... Taiwan produces 90% of all Laptops world-wide as well as the most sophisticated computer chips! This production would immediately stop due to support from the West (tools and components) ending.
For that reason I have doubts that this would be any good for the Chinese (or anybody else) ... and we have seen as well in Afghanistan how difficult it is for a well equipped and resourced army to hold a country which does not like to be hold. If anybody thinks the topography in Afghanistan was difficult, than have a look at Taiwan - amazing landscape and mountain ranges! Quite impossible to take with modern troops!
I am however sure that the sabre rattling will continue and everybody will try to get as many concessions as they can.
From my own reading it appears that Taiwan makes the most sophisticated chips because its IP is is fact superior to the US.
That's why the US is racing to build at least 2 chip megafoundries in partnership with Intel to transfer the IP back to the US and up its own game in the nanometer chip dimension races.
If Taiwan's foundries fall under Chinese control intact, then China will gain that IP and leave the West behind in the race to future technologies.The West could effectively be sidelined from the most advanced technologies, becoming merely a tech user and no longer a tech innovator. The US has the best science perhaps but its technology is now lagging the likes of Taiwan at least in chip manufacturing.
There's a huge amount at stake - whoever owns or allies with Taiwan, owns the future itself...
As if the World doesn't have enough on its plate...
A dangerous crisis is brewing in the Balkans. Will the West do anything to stop another war?
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/06/e...cmd/index.html
While it is correct that Taiwan produces some of the most sophisticated computer chips in the world, my understanding is that they could not continue to do so without continuous support from the West.
While their manufacturing technology is one of the best ... you need some other stuff as well to continue the production. You need highly sophisticated tools which are manufactured in Europe and in the US ... and you need software (which continuously needs upgrades - sigh) made in the US. Taiwan has neither the IP for the tools nor for the SW - and given that all these things are under export control, they would not get this stuff anymore (neither replacement, nor maintenance) if they belong to the PRC.
Everybody would loose, but yes, the US obviously tries nevertheless to make themselves independent from Taiwan's manufacturing capabilities.
Trapped Ion Quantum computing is the future. Not next year. Five years? 10?
Russia explodes satelitte causing 3k+ pieces of space debris.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/15/p...scn/index.html
SpaceX may have to cancel their plans, hehe if only, Elon's ego won't allow for that.
Meanwhile in fast cooling Europe / UK...
A winter energy crisis looms for Europe as Putin tightens his grip
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...18-p599xo.html
Interesting times in the east don't always involve gas. . .
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...mpaign=3156794
January timeframe for Ukraine?
U.S. Intel Shows Russian Plans for Potential Ukraine Invasion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...raine-invasion
(Paywalled)
I think it's a mistake to conflate Ukraine and Taiwan - the drivers are quite, quite different.
For China, re-unification with Taiwan is a matter of policy - and is in the public arena. Failure to re-unify the Greater Chinese Nation would be a failure of policy, and would represent a failure of the political leadership. Such failure would be intolerable.
For Russia, the desire is for a stable border. The current "frozen conflict" provides that stability for far, far less effort than would an invasion.
You are right - different drivers, but it still makes sense to assume these events might happen at the same time. Look at it from this perspective - no matter who (Putin or Xi) strikes first, they will occupy the focus of the western and not anymore that united union. If the other one strikes thereafter, they will either get only half the attention - or still less.
Good time to steal and invade / occupy if the West is busy with other problems.
Which dictator doesn't want to distract from their domestic issues.
The argentine junta and the falklands being an example.
Decisions on NordStream 2 has already been delayed.
The UKR has used turk made drones to hit artillery position which means troop movements are obvious and plan to build a new factory to build 50 more.
Germany will drop NS2 and russia needs the revenue..
Russia needs to export gas, Europe needs to import gas. It should be a marriage made in heaven. How far and how fast does the balance change as Europe electrifies?
From what i can make out, Europe needs gas because it has electrified and the wind did not blow as much as expected this year. They have been using their reserves
US should tighten up their pandemic control within the military.
If russia and china try something during this new covid wave they need to be ready this time.
Ukraine worried about a Kremlim planned internal coup, co-inciding with russian troops along the border.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59428712
The drums of war beat louder over Taiwan and Ukraine - Carl Bildt (The nightmare scenario...)
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/th...0and%20Ukraine
Its the old Khrushchev play book..
rattle them and get some resolution as Putin wants NS2.
Russia will act if Ukraine 'red lines' crossed by NATO, Vladimir Putin says
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world...utin-says.html
Biden seeks to prevent Russian invasion of ukraine.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/bide...f-ukraine.html
Hopefully the west takes back crimea one day and returns it to its owner.
To the Russians, the West attempting to take back Crimea would be like Russia invading Alaska (even if I believe Russia shouldn't be there).
I hope everyone chills out.
I've never been fond of cannabis (not my cup of tea and not a judgement) but I see great value in Putin, Biden, and Xi getting into a room and smoking a massive blunt & listening to music. Could win the Nobel Prize....
Does it matter? Just a little genocide, no problem. It does matter and the Russians are the ones who need to rectify the situation, another war helps no one.
Before we had such a huge relationship with China we swapped butter for Ladas when the Russians couldn't pay up. Why is something bad for Russia good for us? I like Russian people.
Good point. Before that it used to belong to Turkey and Russia took it from them with force - i.e. no doubt Russia needs to give it back to Turkey.
However - more recently Russia did give the Crimea (it first stole from Turkey) to the Ukraine ... and then took it back with force, this is not what friends do, isn't it?
No matter how you turn it - Russia is the thief and aggressor - but hey, what would you expect from an autocratic crook.
in 1783 the thief was the so called Catherina the Great, and more recently the thief was Putin the Liar and Assassin. No difference at all - all Russian crooks.
"I like Russian people."
they even read Win the Poo Bear in Moscow and love it...
people at heart the same all over the world...just they seem to need leaders... instead of leading themselves..
Not sure about Win the poo, but agree with the sentiment. The Russians do have as many good and as many bad people as any other representative group of people.
The problem is - they do have currently a system which promotes the really bad people into leadership positions ... but hey, many countries have this problem and even the Americans (leaders of the Western world) recently just dodged a bullet in that regard, i.e. no reason to be smug.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvyZp0Xks54
friends in Moscow love it... software programmers..
one of our components was written by 2 programmers , one from the Donbas the other from Moscow.. Code is fast and they can Hack anything...they love hacking machine memory.. But these days there are ways of moving those addresses that means a russian hacker can be defeated..
this code is great stuff though and we use it often.
Prepare a swift response to Russia invading Ukraine, Latvia tells west
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...vasion-warning
No doubt Latvia would like Nato to stand up to Russia, instead of getting invaded itself, but is Nato actually prepared to fight Russia?
or is it merely a case of sanctions again instead to appease and save Western lives...Nato looks more like a political body than a military one...
I like the Russian people too (they also build great submarines!), and MAD has stopped a nuclear war so far (We survived the Cold War) but at some point a price may need to be paid once again sadly - is our generation going to be the one to make that decision to affect our kids - is Ukraine worth that much?
Glad these decisions are way above my pay-grade and I am merely an investor in the South West Pacific...
I suppose an invasion into (parts of Ukraine) would result "only" in a bunch of pretty stiff sanctions .... which Putin may or may not like (I recon he won't). It likely would as well mean a stop for delivering gas from Russia to Europe through the existing gas pipeline and the new pipeline would be stopped in its tracks forever. Russians would very fast run out of cash and you will be surprised how happy the US will be to sell their LPG to Europe instead. Win-win.
However - Latvia is part of the NATO (the Ukraine is not) - i.e. an attack against Latvia would automatically be seen as a military attack against all NATO countries. That's what the NATO contract says. Well, I recon this would be a step too far even for the liar and crook Putin. Not a lot of fun fighting a war against some 28 countries who combine altogether something like 60% of the total world spend for defense.
I dont think Russia wants Ukraine its a bit of a failed state.. They are interested in the Russians living in the Donbass region
As far as Ukraine goes, I rather think that Russia has helped Ukraine "fail", and so is probably relatively happy with the status quo.
Further to the east, this should give everyone enough sticks to beat everyone else. . .
https://media.defense.gov/2021/Dec/1...TER%202021.PDF
Navalny's daughter speaks to EU parliament:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gi__MEJwqA
The real life Kaitness everdeen ?
Hope you have all read this already, but if not: PS. One more meeting to go Tomorrow...
Nato chief warns of ‘real risk of conflict’ as talks with Russia over Ukraine end
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...er-ukraine-end
roll out the church speak...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F61ikPeE7zM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJxUAcADV70
That speech, the Iron Curtain speech by Churchill has to be one of the most insightfull and all encompassing post WWII speeches of all time, and serves as a tremendous history lesson in itself, that deserves to be read by a new generation of New Zealanders who need to reinterpret and update their sense of history in light of the new strategic challenges that we face today with both Russia and now China.
It has to rate, as historic inspiration, as good if not better than the reading of the Declaration of Independence itself, which I remember reading in Washington DC decades ago as a young man. Words that put in the backbone and provide the purpose for us all today.
Thank You Waltzing for bringing this to our attention.
The Island Race, by Winston S Churchill.
Someone said...of his famous world war II speech in parliament.
"Mobilised the English language and sent it into war"
After the Lull - what comes next?
Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ul-2022-01-13/
Going to be very interesting.
Might stuff the tourist season in St Petersburg. Lot of out of work ballet stars unless its locals only. Probably already a lot of out of work ballerina's.
Oh big cyber attacks in ukraine and apparently the russian are going to deploy troops in Cuba.
Weather in cuba is much warmer a software developer in moscow says. Great deployment if you can get it.
As you mentioned, this could be the start of something...
Massive cyberattack hits Ukrainian government websites amid Russia tensions
https://www.reuters.com/technology/m...ns-2022-01-14/
Its a classic Khrushchev play.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/14/p...lag/index.html
Looks like it Putins old game of blow up your own people.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1...12-predictions
Some predictions about China in 2022 as they affect NZ.
US claims Russia planning ‘false-flag’ operation to justify Ukraine invasion
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/us-russia-false-flag-ukraine-attack-claim
Missile systems and tanks spotted in Russian far east, heading west
https://medium.com/dfrlab/missile-sy...t-6d2a4fe7717a
Cuba play.. classic Khrushchev.
Applying pressure all the way up and down the new iron Putin curtain.
Putin preparing a false flag within ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lWFXJ7RNPg
Cool, prepared to hurt his own supporters nothing new.
Putin clearly learned a lot from Hitler ... Ukraine might be now to Putin what Czechia was to Hitler:
1) Pretend a much weaker state you are harassing and oppressing is threatening you.
2) Infiltrate this state and organise some actors or agents in this state to pretend an attack against your troops
3) Shoot back and pretend to be the poor victim of aggression
4) Start a World War.
5) Kill millions of people
6) Lose the war
We are currently at number 2 (arguably number 3 if we count the first invasion of Russia against Ukrainian territory :eek2: ;
I think you may have meant insightful rather incite-ful? For I think it could well be argued that the Austrian Hitler had an equally if not more impressive power of speech to incite the people of the country of which he was in charge. The Anglo-American Churchill’s UK needed the USA to achieve many of its goals.
Pretty good summary overall but I strongly suspect that China's strategic intentions will be made clear in the South Pacific by moves to sight the beginnings of a new naval base in the South Pacific. The US Navy is expecting this "surprise" this year, not the status quo as mentioned in the article by the NZCCRC. However the US Congress only just seems to be waking up on this strategic intention recently after increased warning from Australia especially.
New Zealand faces 'negative trajectory' of security threats in Pacific - Lucy Craymer & Thomas Manch
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/127219200/new-zealand-faces-negative-trajectory-of-security-threats-in-pacific
Excerpt:
“China views an increased presence in the Pacific as part of its natural progression towards its global goals.”
The assessment said the “most threatening” developments include the construction of military or dual-use bases by countries not aligned with New Zealand, military supported resource exploitation, and military confrontation.
The construction of a base could “fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region”, the assessment said."
So New Zealand is "aware" of what is going to happen, but is not gearing up to DO anything about it.
Essentially, NZ itself is defence-less
Top hat was just the business attire of the time. Even Lloyd George sported it.
https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-ll...-30493956.html
The russian's have declared cyber war and it will spread.
Arrested some state agented hackers to apparently show what they will unleash.
New Cold war is here.
Complete with their Aircraft carrier still sunk in port or somewhere.
Don't forget about the South China Sea / Taiwan - the Phillipines is preparing for war, buying supersonic stand-off cruise misslies,
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/philippines-to-buy-indias-brahmos-supersonic-missiles-01142022133408.html
NZ should do the same - if it had any sense, but the NZ Defence Force is stupid, given we have no effective combatants to speak of...
Russia still has an effective military because they've been neglecting other parts of their society.
Chechnya, daegstan, khazakstan and other powder kegs could be encouraged to secede with some timely weapons supplies.
To defeat an adversary, first understand why & how the adversary behaves.
The West really has no idea what makes China tick - listen carefully to the answers from this China specialist :
https://youtu.be/3BO5CZgP-eE
No wonder China is charging ahead on all fronts while the West & the US in particular are getting left behind.
Russian research ship yantar has been busy over the last few years.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...nal-trade.html
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian...n-yantar-ship/
I wonder if they have placed underwater explosives on most of the world's internet cables.
Interesting name of the research ship "yantar"... even if it just means "to eat" in English.
By the way - didn't we had a poster of that name as well? He often sounded like one of Putin's little bots. Pro any Russian aggression and supporting western polarisation where he could.
Maybe his job was the same as the job of the respective ship - creating confusion and angst in the west.
The same could be said of the UK too.
The UK and the EU have a similar approach to the Ukrainian/Russian situation. However lingering Brexit issues may interfere with a broader UK-France and UK-EU co-operation on the matter.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ey-areas-fared
Shame on Merkel for blocking weapons supplies to ukraine
Another strange policy from her along with abandoning nuclear power for gas and dirty coal.
Pretty interesting perspective from Tucker Carlson today on this issue. I've included a link below for those that forgot to watch it this afternoon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQxPQ87t7Do
The same guys who wanted the Iraq/afghanistan shambles.
Be careful who you back in Ukraine..
https://www.thenation.com/article/ar...right-ukraine/
In Tucker's latest piece, he thinks we're moving closer to war:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqfyZ618Bks
Is there an ideal New Cold War portfolio? I haven't given this much thought - I suppose the obvious choice would be to include arms manufacturers - Cramer mentioned Lockheed Martin yesterday (around the four minute mark). However I've got no desire (or the skill and knowledge) to start investing in individual names again and will just stick with my indexes and ETFs with my small tilt towards energy.
https://youtu.be/SlycQZMs4W0?t=240
If we we go to a full European land war with the use of say tactical nukes, will physical gold do better than say Bitcoin? A nuclear war/EMP attacks could disrupt networks I imagine. I don't know enough about how bitcoin works - maybe both gold and bitcoin work or neither lol.
And lastly if we head towards a nuclear winter and a post apocalyptic world "light" (rather than complete destruction) maybe some silver coins; whisky and cigarettes and other hard assets might be useful in the first year or so of the New World. They'd be good to barter with or consume. We'll all need a stiff drink and a smoke at times in a post apocalyptic world I'm guessing.
Just spit balling on a Sunday afternoon and avoiding the weeding.
Yes well more talks next week. Its a bit like a soap opera really you have to look in every week or day to catch the next EPS.
if you didnt lighten up a bit a last week its going to be a bit late this week...
but all things pass just like the second world war did ... just ask your grand parents if they are still alive.
dont WORRY bit like the song...
Blinkie Blinken wont Blink...
Try XAR Bobdn. . . SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
Thanks GTM, I'll have a look. I allow myself a little bit of mad money in my portfolio. VOO, VTV, VUG, VT etc gets a bit boring after awhile :). Oil is occupying my mad money allocation at the moment: OIH, XLE and IXC.
Yank, Russian and EU investors probably having this conversation on the other side of the world and asking best way to invest into NZ… good ole nzx50 a good safe bet in times like these
Russia has world leading demograhpic issues.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
If they are sending their *few* young people to war instead of being economically productive, where does that leave the elderly.
There's also ITA, which is the iShares equivalent. But once you start looking at specific sectors, you find that the indexes which the various ETFs follow tend to converge and overlap.
Morningstar US has some relatively good ETF tools which allow searching by sector. Not that good tho' as XAR and ITA both appear under "Industrials".
Still, you can always read the Fund names for clues. . .