Lessons learnt, their economy is now booming,much like their "Whale Watching".
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Share price back to where it was early Feb
Price action not what you would expect leading up to next weeks announcement if it is going to be a boomer of one.
Hope a case of sell the rumour and buy on the facts (next week) .....not that I've heard any rumours about impending bad news
I must say I'm reasonably surprised about the drop in sp over the past few weeks leading up to the update next week. At this market cap with the current market sentiment I really think this update needs to be a stunner otherwise we will see a sharp decline in sp.
However as I've said before after running their growth numbers I think they've set this whole business up to over deliver on targets. I topped up this week ready for the news next week but I also understand it's partly a gamble.
Last 3 quarters they've jumped up 7.7m, 6m and 8.4m ACMR respectively. If we see anything above a 8.4m jump in ACMR regardless of how the sp moves I'll be a happy camper.
Is today the day they come out with the next set of exciting numbers to put a rocket under the share price
Agree - fairly excited! What is everyones 'gut' feel? Like you say winner69, you'd think there'd be a slow rally up on leaked information in the week before lol... Today should be telling
Hmmm...up 7% so far or 13c, hope tomorrow is not going to be a fizzer. Must have some FAITH!!!
low volumes. From every buyer there is a seller , so may be the sellers know something also.
I think the price rise is driven by those that feel the must have the stock for the 12th. The sellers are happy to hold but at the higher price they are happy to take the money .
Whats the saying, 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'?
Even if its another expected result , is the company worth 500m at present?
I guess all will be revealed in the next few days
Wish the share price chart go up as steeply as the pretty charts in the Push presentations.
Hmmm...Momentum people may disagree....Looking chartwise the recent price fall was due to PPH stocks being illiquid with a very few sellers but even less buyers.
This stock has shown a lack of investor interest for 6 weeks so a lack of momentum causes the price to weaken..
Many sellers are small time investors with lazy portfolios and do not actively monitor their portfolios during each day as they have better things to do..so when an unexpected increase in buyer volume occurs (as we see today) with an illiquid stock the sellers get cleaned out and the price gaps up...When this happens, and listen carefully you can hear the lazy sellers saying bugger..bugger..bugger. :D.
The depth resistances are small fish at the moment so if buyers keep up this rekindled interest in PPH it could race on through all its resistances and break quickly through the $2 area.
Illiquidity is a 2 edged sword as the same applies in reverse..Large purchases of Illiquid shares should be bought with a clear understanding...When a disappointing announcement occurs they can be very difficult to off load as the price races down breaking supports as it goes...The caught investor is then faced with what number is their hair cut..
All to do with acceptability of risk v reward as measured by price patterns and Beta coefficients..
Disc: Hold
Crystal ball gazing: 6942 Merchants, $596 ARPM, $49m ACMR.
Crystal ball gazing after a couple of drinks: 7003 Merchants, $607 ARPM, $51m ACMR.
Crystal ball gazing with the help of god: ?????
Hey Winner, Winner..........will we be chicken dinner today??
Only 4 hours and 52 mins to wait now!!!
Disc: also hold PPH!!
Blondie
50.5m ($625/customer) very good numbers
Hi Winner Winner
Beggar the KFC McNuggets...............steak for me tonight!
Blondie
Record Quarter Whoop Whoop! AMCR > US$50m :)
Break even for a 'SaaS' is extraordinary.
Well done Pushpay.
How long before Pushpay gets bought out?
Three more quarters like this and its easily getting to $72 million USD and breakeven by year end.
Intrinsic value for me right now is $2.16 per share after seeing this quarters results.
Intrinsic value if they reach $72 million USD by year end $3.30 per share
I think we have to be satisfied with these numbers although I was hoping to have 7000 users by now. But an increase of 634 for the last 3 months is good. The 2 numbers I watch the most apart from ACMR are the Average Revenue Per Customer which has increased substantially from US$ 573 to US$ 625 and the other is retention rate which still remains at or above 95%. This is good stuff and we sure look set for breakeven in the last quarter of calendar year 2017.
Happy holder :-)
sharp I think PPH will come on various radar screens once they hit US$100m annualised revenue and start printing cash. This company reminds me a lot of DIL
Really, really pleased with the ARPM figures, which exceeded my expectation. More transaction volume = more merchants will sign up.
I concur with your sentiments. PPH also reminds me of DIL which also made me very happy with its performance.
Quote from Pushpay's 2016 annual report:
"As announced on 15 August 2016, Pushpay nowexpects to reach its US$72 million (NZ$100million) ACMR target prior to the end ofDecember 2017, eight months sooner thaninitially anticipated. By way of comparison, Xerogrew from NZ$10 million to NZ$100 million ofACMR in around 42 months and Pushpay nowexpects to accomplish this in less than 28 months."
"On 5 October 2016, Pushpay successfullycompleted a book build for its AU$40 million(US$31 million, using an assumed exchange rateof AUD/USD 0.76622) private placement, at theclearing price of AU$2.09 per share (NZ$2.20 pershare)"
I like where PPH is heading. Up and up.
So we're all happy, onward and upward :t_up:
Not exactly setting the Thames on fire is it
I was lead to believe the PPH share price chart was going to look like this
Looks like it is fully (over valued) at current levels
@ChrisHeaslip: June 2014 ~$600k USD ACMR | March 2017 $50.5m ACMR | Almost 100x growth in less than 3 years!
WOW
Another 100x in 3 years = $5 billion
Go Pushpay
Suppose 84x is almost 100x Chris
Why so short targets? Just extend the trendline a bit further - in 6 years it might be a $500 billion company and in just 9 years they might ramp up to $50 trillion revenue. Their growth will only stop when all the available money on earth goes through their books (which should be just after passing the 9 year milestone ;);
Discl: just kidding (re above), but the total money supply on earth is currently reported as $60T (seriously);
Hmmm yes Winner....A bit of a let down..PPH telegraphed some time ago that the news was going to be very good..The problem before todays announcement was how very good does very good have to be so not to disappoint Mr Market?..Todays announcement seems to have generated only a lukewarm response with reasonable volume....and... technically it has tested and failed it's $2 resistance Neckline and ascending triangle pattern breakout:(..
Disc: still holding
exactly what I was thinking Hoop
no break yet, though I was wondering whether I was just being too impatient - equities take more time than forex.....??
Yes just calm down people,we're heading in the right direction,good things will happen to the sharprice.
This company is either going to be able to perform like DIL or get taken out sooner.
Well it wasn't quite 8.4m but I suppose 8.3m is pretty close :P
Now for some interesting math. They are currently sitting at 50.5m, they need to get to 72m before the end of the year. My guess is they average a ~8.5m increase in ACMR every 3 months (quarter) from here, this means next quarter they're at 59m, quarter after which puts us in October we're at 67.5m which gives them 2 months before the end of the calendar year to raise ACMR by 5.5m which happens to be exactly 66% 8.5 (66% because of the 2 months instead of 3 in a quarter before the end of the calendar year). So pretty much if we see anything above 9m ACMR increase in the next two updates then we will get to our 72m ACMR goal by October-ish.
The reason the sp hasn't moved is because this stock has had priced in success since the Xero team started the project. The sp should continue to rise to around $2.50-$3 before October is my guess.
Just had another read - the definition changes will hugely benefit ACMR over the coming months, and exponentially at the start of next year. Rather than averaging over 12 months, it will simply be the last 3 months of volume fees. ARPM will no longer be dragged down by historical figures. Interesting that PPH no longer feel the need to "remove the seasonal effect" though, which is why it was averaged over 12 months in the first place.
Expect the SP to continue to hover around these levels until US$72m.
The view is once the definition changes it will be much more clearer what the present situation is since the averages are dragged down by low historical numbers. I reckon with the definition changes they will get to $72 million by the end of the September quarter, instead of $8 million increases per quarter we will be seeing $10 million or more (50.5 + 10 +12 = 72.5) . As confirmed today in the conference even if there is no definition change they will still achieve their target by year end (50.5 + 8 + 8 + 8 = 74.5).Change of definition means pushing up the quarter in which they achieve their target, changes are happening from 9 months, 6 months, then 3 months ACMR as each quarter passes.
Another interesting part about their presentation where they identify the number of churches in the US of 340,000 but 67% actually have less than 200 users and based on their report their platform is least useful and not too beneficial to these churches and rather its the big ones where the real money is made, so their possible customer number is actually 115,600 and out of that they have captured 5.55% of the market of possible customers and the rest aren't as feasible. If we consider the best customers are just the 1000+ member one's that's actually only 17,000 churches and if most of their customers are in that category already and if they are usually aiming at that list, they have already taken around 38% of possible customers, so less room to grow hence why we see not-for-profits listed as a target category.
Now that my brains on full blast due to early morning.
I reckon current ACMR when adjusted to 9 months next quarter would presently be $53.8 million, adjust for 6 months ACMR would be $55.55 million and adjust for 3 months would be $58 million
So forecast numbers for next coming quarters.
June - $53.8 + $8.5 = $62.3USD (89.55 NZD)
September - $55.55 + $8.8 + $8.8 = $73.15 *BINGO $72 million ACMR achieved! (105 NZD)
December - $58 + $9.2 + $9.2 +$ 9.2 = $85.6 million ACMR (123 NZD)
Share price (with adjusted ACMR)
June Intrinsic = $2.29 per share
September Intrinsic = $3.36 per share
December Intrinsic = $ 4.10per share
*Just my opinion and should not be relied upon for share purchases!
Thanks for good info silverblizzard888
Anybody else sensing the smell of a seriously hyped up stock in the air?
"Normal" start up growth companies are measured in P/S ... and this is already a quite risky practice to assess their success. Many of them never see black numbers under their bottom line.
But P/S is not good enough for PPH - they didn't wanted to wait until they have the sales in their pocket (and books), so they use ACMR instead of sales ... which is basically (if all things go well) a measure for next years revenue.
And now they are changing the model to calculate ACRP (which flows into the ACMR) just based on the most recent quarter instead of the committed revenue coming in over the last 12 months. They change as well the definition every 3 months for a year (making the window every 3 months shorter) to make sure nothing will be comparable anymore. Gone are the days where boards still pulled old-fashioned wool over their shareholders heads ...
Obviously - this change in metrics will neither help them to make only one dime more nor to grow only a tiny percentage faster. It just makes the growth numbers in the short term look more spectacular, because it is now measuring every quarter something different ... and it makes sure that their growth numbers can't be compared anymore with any other company nor with historical PPH numbers.
Fishy enough?
What this change will help them is to make their growth numbers in the short term still more outrageous (even if they don't mean a lot) and help them to push up the share price (is that what the "push" in "push pay" stands for?).
Obviously this will only work as long as commitments increase month by month. Expect them to be quick to change their metrics back as soon as new commitments get softer ... though maybe they just take the cash and run ... who knows?
Not sure about you ... but I am avoiding companies which change their most important self defined metrics on the fly ...
Anyway - GLTAH!
Attachment 8799
To your first question NO. For a SAAS company to get to break even in a few years is a remarkable result. Your time is wasted here. If you want to talk about a seriously hyped up stock I would recommend you turn your analysis to XRO.
Look at their growth rate, how many years have they taken and they're still not at breakeven and look at their share price ! You want hyped up, refer to XRO !
BlackPeter I can't really understand why you keep bashing.
You can't buy puts, or sell short this stock so....
Just look at all the tears in the threads of companies who passed their hype peak already ... wouldn't it be nice we could save some people from losing their money?
The first indicators for a coming downturn in hyped up stocks are often when holders start to question any critical voices why they bother to post anything which could hurt the perception of their darling.
I guess let's face it - if you are sure that this company is a goose which will lay golden eggs ... than some cautious voices on this thread are the best thing which can happen to you. Just allows you to buy more of this great stock for cheap.
If you are however not quite sure, than it might be a good idea to reflect on critical comments ... might save your money as well.
In any case ... in which situation would a critical post be bad for you (unless you currently try to sell ... do you?)?
Hi BP. In fact they are correct in saying they have been very conservative with ACMR to date. ACMR is annualised committed monthly revenue - normally calculated by taking the last month (or current month) customer contracted revenue and multiplying by 12. This calculation is easy for the likes of XRO who have a set monthly subscription, but becomes harder for the likes of PPH where they have a subscription fee and an activity fee.
Nothing fishy about it imho. ACMR is just one way to measure SAAS companies and it helps in they all use a similar method for calculating it.
So - who gains if they change the metrics to make their growth look better? How does this improve (long-term) shareholder value? How does it help shareholders to have 4 consecutive quarters with measurements every time on a different basis? What is the value of a measurement which is not comparable to anything?
The value of the change is in making their metrics comparable to other companies. But I agree it makes it difficult to compare past periods for PPH, but this is only an issue for the transitional periods. I would contend they are changing to make their growth look more accurate.
How does it make their growth more accurate if they change the calculation base for it 4 times in one year (or didn't you notice the time variance of the new definition?)?
If they really would have wanted to just adapt to some more appropriate metrical standard, than they would have made the change to the new method in one step (not in 4), they would have given this new metrics a different name to help everybody to understand that they are now measuring oranges instead of apples in the fruit salad and they would report for several years on both the old as well as on the new metrics to keep comparability.
What's the story guys? Onwards and upwards over the next 3 months or are we waiting until June, the next update?
MikeE my opinion on this and trying to ignore the hype.............This is an unfortunate too often scenario found in the NZX list of companies which has sucked in too many investors..
Re: Investor Relations:---These loss making companies play on a cyclical formula...We have been promised (installed greed) .... now and for the near future is the waiting game (installed patience and faith) before delivery (installed hope)...when patience dwindles the company suddenly announces a positive update often via newspaper (revitalises faith/patience/hope)...
PPH in its new shape (since last October chart-wise) is a bear in a volatile price trendless pause mode..Trend-less is characteristic of a patient waiting market...PPH being an illiquid stock has a high beta coefficient and is price sensitive to any rumour (revitalising investors emotions)
Logic says the next update will confirm either-way whether PPH is still on track to deliver...but logic can perform poorly in an investing world...PPH being price sensitive any media attention at any time (truth or lies) could affect the price with a sudden up or down movement in a large way (high Beta)...and..that can be a problem for the conservative investor sitting and waiting on the sidelines...With illiquid trading stocks TA disciplines can be unreliable ...so too can forward looking FA..
These types of stocks are spectulatives and using portfolio theory you use only your speculative money allowance (up to 10% of a standard portfolio**)..and dive in using either having faith or taking a punt .......I never rely on faith as faith is a delusional emotion (remember the investor maxim .."Emotion Kills") instead I'm relying on the punt:cool:.
** Why only 10% of a portfolio??..Because the odds in real life only 10% spectacularly succeed the other 90% can be portfolio killing duds)
Disc: Hold (just)..still in profit (just)
MikeE - What Hoop said but I think only 5% of one's portfolio as a total should be allocated to speculative stocks. Speculative stocks in my opinion includes any company not presently making money.
Disc: Still holding, (just) and PPH represents 2.7% of the value of my listed assets.
Sorry Roger I rewrote my post..You may not agree now......Yes I agree 5% is more sensible..depends a lot on the Investor mental make up and the type of portfolio they feel comfortable to hold...e.g heavy weighted no growth/high dividend companies held long term for adverse risk investors...to that of..short/medium term active investors aiming at growth companies / lower dividend and acceptable to some risk and agile enough to jump in or out..
No worries Hoop I still think what you've said makes good common sense. For a SAAS company their runway to potential break-even has been pretty short, sorry to be so dogmatic about it but I can't help myself comparing the length of the runway to Xero's ! XRO was trumpeted as a business champion, Rod Drury receiving business accolades and was almost seen as some sort of new business Messiah when the company had a market cap of $4,000m.
Still not at break even after what, a decade ? In that context if it takes PPH another 3-18 months after the promise of break even to achieve same, is that really so terrible ?
Yes I admit its a bit of a punt for me but a bit of faith mixed in as well :)
That's what got me interested ..the promised "short" lead up time to profitability... now operating with some success within the biggest economy in the world (USA)..and...wait for it.. has been labelled as a hyper-growth company ;):p.
Bargin time aye Hoop, plenty on sale at $1.73, might get tempted again soon.(I won't blame the devil)
The April 12 test of the 200DMA resistance, and fail was quite telling. Then closing right on the converging short and medium term up/down trendlines.
Recently PPH has behaved well from a TA perspective, it's broadcasting intent, the fall today highlights uncertainty as to whether perfection has already been priced in and is now reverting to a less risky level, possibly towards support at 1.47.
Patience for lurkers, tight stops for holders.
Good opportunity to buy in once it plummets to around 1.47 :t_up:
De-risked a lil bit last week by offloading half of my holdings, might look to top up another parcel if price gets down to ridiculous levels...
Look forward to more info next month when they announce annual results.
I'm not going to offload any of this stock,if you don't believe what they are achieving then fair enough,but look at the quarterly figures and the growth potential still.
growth stocks tend to have a bumpy ride,and I have made the mistake of selling down in the past (other stocks)and regretting it.
Welcome to the forum and good luck with that.
Interesting as a comparison, Xero listed nearly a decade ago in June 2007 and Craigs have just announced they are starting to recommend Xero again for risk tolerant investors because they believe it will be cash flow neutral by....wait for it.... March 2019. (That's cash flow neutral, not making a profit).
If PPH can be cash flow neutral by Q4 2017 or frankly anytime in 2018 or even 2019 their performance by comparison has been absolutely stellar for a SAAS company.
Anyone noticed XRO is now over $20 ! Tax law is constantly evolving which will require constant evolution and development of their software across multiple tax jurisdictions...on the other hand we have PPH with a pathway to cash flow neutral of potentially just a few years without the need to constantly develop its software due to ongoing regular multi jurisdictional taxation and accounting changes.
Some much larger than normal volumes being traded in the last week or so, especially yesterday. Some people must be seeing value at these levels.
However ... exactly the same number of people want to get rid of these shares at these levels. As well - volume is not that high if you compare it to December through to February.
I don't want to discourage you or anybody else, just be careful to avoid confirmation bias ...
The lower NZD goes against USD, the quicker Pushpay can get to their $100ml AMR target.
Good buying interest too over the past few trading days....looking ahead to annual results on 18 May 2017.
Hopeless stock - been away for a couple of weeks and PPH price gone backwards when markets seem to be on a roll
Bugger .....but hope is a strategy eh
Well tech stocks on NASDAQ seem to be doing quite well with their earnings, Apple to announce its earnings after market closes today.
Let's wait and see for annual results to be out in couple of weeks time for PPH and associated commentary in investor presentation.
Pushpay named recipient of the IBM Innovative Company of the Year Award at the 2017 NZ Hi-Tec Awards.
They came across as a very passionate team and the award judges mentioned several times their ability to achieve growth and scale. They spoke very highly of the high tech sector and acknowledged Xero which I thought was a nice touch. The CEO appeared humble and focused in his presentation and I like how they've still stuck to some of their nz roots. To be honest they were only up on stage a couple of times and I've done very little research into them, but what I saw impressed me :)
I love it - not one mention of profit or loss (which doesn't matter anyway)
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258421.pdf
Suppose this is a stunning announcement - ACMR plus 157% and all that
......but the market thinks otherwise
The $3.60 the personal trainer 'promised' seems a long way off
I love it - not one mention of profit or loss (which doesn't matter anyway)
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258421.pdf
Suppose this is a stunning announcement - ACMR plus 157% and all that[/QUOTE]
Agree- looks great! Why on earth has the market reacted like it has? Confused
Well they mention 'breakeven' so that sort of covers profit and loss. Pretty good performance so far.
My figures are quite inline with them that they should achieve breakeven near $72 million US cash revenue.
What has me most eager is the future profits where the run rates are trending.
$72 million US = breakeven
$75 million US = 1 million profit before tax
$130 million US = $23 million profit before tax
$200 million US = $46 million profit before tax (Xeros current territory adjusted for NZD)
Reckon $75 million cash revenue, $100 million ACMR by FY 18
Reckon $130 million cash revenue, $180 million ACMR by FY 19
*all rough estimates for my entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon your investment decisions.
Sentiment rules....
Possibly focussing on the widening loss as presented by the headline from Businessdesk
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/7...us-growth.html
Unless it's XERO the market does not respond well to a growing loss, no matter how incredible the customer/revenue growth and despite the deficit % being halved.
There are many years ahead before we see them turn a profit, the US markets wouldn't have helped today either.
On track to break even on a cash flow basis later this year. Holding for long term growth.
Its all good winner, they seem to be trucking along as per their plan.
I think their partnering with Intuit is to be applauded, as they can access larger customer base and if things go as per plan Intuit can easily gobble them up....
Shame that overnight US markets tanked bit time.
The numbers look good and all seem to be heading in the right direction. In addition to the on track spectacular growth in ACMR, the retention rate remains above 95% which indicates good customer satisfaction. As well as retaining nearly all of their current customers, they have increased numbers by just under 3,000 or 78%, including 36 (up from 24) of the top 100 largest churches.
The partnership with Intuit is an exciting opportunity and it will be interesting to watch how this progresses.
Headlines and articles like the one today in the NBR do not help the SP. It is an ill informed article in my view comparing PPH to XRO's growth opportunities, totally ignoring the fact that Xero took on an establish giant in Intuit in the USA (now partnered with PPH) whereas PPH has no such big established competitors. First mover advantage ignored by the NBR.
A happy holder and this continues to remind me of DIL in more ways than one
Reminds me of DIL also for the good reasons (growth) and also the bad (expenses).
For the last couple of years DIL got to the point where expenses seemed to be rising just as fast as revenue, so while they were cash flow positive it flat lined at about +$1m-$2m per quarter on average.
I can see that PPH has had a big jump in expenses as well, i hope that this doesn't turn into a trend like it did with DIL.
Disc : Holding
Agree Baddarcy that both sides of the ledger bear similarities to DIL. In the end, DIL was a great investment for many. I'm hoping PPH will do the same but am watching numbers and trends carefully
Missed the investor conf call y'day due to prior commitments.
Have now listed to the replay and can say that I feel very confident of their future prospects. However, having said that they do have some challenges ahead to reach market expectations and they're not coy in admitting that.
Surprised to learn that 70% of their customers are current Intuit users and hence the partnering deal with them to offer bundled solutions. No gateway fee or any other fee payable at this point to Intuit.
One thing I noted from CFOs' notes is that they're keeping tight controls around costs and maintaining gross margins as these ultimately determines their further growth.
Also, most of their additional head count is in the area of sales and marketing which is where the return lies.
All in all onwards and upwards from here, but not without some blocks ahead.
Well done PPH and particularly Sarah Elder and Gabrielle Wilson. I agree with the comments about their very good , clear communications https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.c...spx?id=4437473