Yup, -11% sss could do that if it lasts a year. That is probably worst case scenario though.
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Yup, -11% sss could do that if it lasts a year. That is probably worst case scenario though.
From a watchers perspective will be intriguing to see how bad this gets ...or maybe they’ll stabilise the ship (train wreck)
Michael Hill Jeweller and Tiffany in the same sentence .....that’s a bit of a stretch of the imagination.
One never knows one day this might be worth a punt ....maybe 40 cents
bigger lines of shares being dumped today, some one agrees with me, could we be sub .70 before todays day end ?
The disclaimers at the bottom of today’s announcement may be close to the truth and an indication of the how the year going to play out
Really UGLY and going to get a LOT UGLIER in my opinion. Product offer and business case is fundamentally flawed. 3% sales by ecommerce platforms is really pathetic.
The next Pumpkin Patch ? Not at any price for me Winner because I don't punt on mutts. I like watching train wrecks however because they teach you what NOT to do in business.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/7...weak-saleshtml
Forward PE is 9 on FNZC forecast but I reckon their forecast is "brave"
Looks like .74 is the bottom for now, late flurry of buying atm.
Retail expert says it’s good to see a retailer cutting back on discount ...good being an expert who knows everything eh
The comments under the article probably a better indicator of the uphill battle Michael Hill has
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/107...paying-off-yet
Why would one pay a forward PE of 9 for a retailer that's swiftly contracting and there are real questions over the validity of their business model when one can buy a highly successful retailer on a pathway of solid growth with excellent stock turn like HLG for a forward PE of about 11 ?
Well an argument could be made for taking more than last years earnings into consideration. In which case the 'average' p/e of HLG is considerably higher.
In any case I hold more HLG than MHJ.
Well they certainly do not use charts to time their share purchases.
Business model looks broken to me.
The fizz is out of the bottle.
Their business model was based on discounting? Discounting bringing the price back to what I would call the normal retail price.
As is in the case of most failed retail models rebranding costs a great deal and more often than not fails.
Same store sales are flat or negative while overheads are increasing.
Finally waking up years too late to online sales ,means that they are behind the pack here too.
My own view is LOV have taken the low end of the market leaving either the middle or upper end to MHJ,and I doubt they will survive in either of those.
A lot of clever people have lost a great deal of capital in the changing retail market.
Different this time.?
Totally agree, my family (especially mom) is a jewellery person and have really moved away from MHJ stores which they did like initially (15 years or so ago) but their "normal" prices of jewellery is ridiculous, they priced themselves in the "unique" "one off" "custom made" market on their higher end products which was basically stuff off the catalogue (they would even open the suppliers catalogue and show you the options and then charge to MHJ pricing. Family have all moved to smaller retailers who have better 18ct and 22ct jewellery and manufacture very small number of items which is what you want when spending 5-10k on jewellery IMO.
The other part that really annoyed me with MHJ was their useless "life guarantee" on their pieces, yet whenever u have a problem there is ALWAYS a BS fine print about why they cant fix it without extra charges. There is ALWAYS an extra charge even though item is used less than 30 days.
I personally didnt like some of their sales reps, too pushy for my liking.
I just think they lost the plot along the way, products were just not in line with prices - our insurance company agreed on their valuations as well, hence they made use get external ones at our cost.
LAC said — I personally didnt like some of their sales reps, too pushy for my liking.
No pushy pushy no going to Vegas. Some even get into the Gold Club (not that Sir Michael looks too impressed in one photo)
Pages 16 and 17 Celebrating Success
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...470/287529.pdf
Pretty rousing speech by Emma
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...708/289088.pdf
Fell flat with me.
Not convinced at all.
Imagen Rod Duke at Briscoes coming out and saying no more sales,however, we intend to engage more with our customers.Utter drivel.
I was seduced by the aspirational words and ra ra etc and didn’t concentrate on the content / detail
Percy, sounds like they going back to discounting and lots of promotions. From the CEO speech (from sharechat)
"We have now moved to adjust our promotional activity for the balance of the financial year," he said. Hill said that management has implemented a "range of initiatives" to ensure strong performance during the key Christmas trading period.
"We are in the mid-market and are up against strong discounting in all markets," Taylor said. "As such we will continue to have great offers and competitive pricing so our stores can continue to compete on a day to day basis,"
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...st-of-yearhtml
[QUOTE=winner69;734914]l
Percy, sounds like they going back to discounting and lots of promotions. From the CEO speech (from sharechat)
It is that or die.
And it must be great product at a GENUINE discounted price.
Challenging,in a very tough retail market.
This is some serious insider buying...
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201811...63bnv9nhhv.pdf
Indeed - not often a director spends $245K to more than triple her holding.
Looking at the MHJ chart, it looks like someone shock the bottle mid Oct before it was opened, but I'm sure Rob knows what he's doing. After all I remember when he was on the Trilogy (Ecoya) board, he got his directors fee paid in shares (mostly between $0.5- $1 ).
Too bad he left the company before we could see when he sold :D
New exec
Suppose being ‘globally relevant’ actually means something in the context of jewellery retailing
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...289/293462.pdf
Things looking good (or encouraging) at Michael Hill with good Xmas period sales
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...482/293672.pdf
Sp at 81c - 42% increase from low of 57c reached before results announced.
Always right to follow when insiders (directors) buy in volume - especially when you can buy in even cheaper than them!!!!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/325606
700,000 shares bought at 72c
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201811...63bnv9nhhv.pdf
363,815 bought at 67c
Nice increase eh.
Now if it can only get back to my average :90c
They used to be a good long term hold until they entered the USA market.
311 stores producing a revenue of $315 mil,or just over $1mil revenue per store.NZ stores are well over $1mil while Canadian stores are well under $1mil per store.That figure reduces when we take off the $9.5mil generated from online sales.On line sales at 3% of total sales have a lot of ground to make up.
Net profit after tax is $19.5mil or $62,700 per store,or $1,200 per store per week.
Still very early days repositioning the brand from discounter to good value store.
Their store fit out is a lot more expensive than Lovisa's which means their pay back time is in years rather than months.
Looking at Lovisa store compared to a Michael Hill store, it is easy to note which is busy and which is not.
So I remain of the opinion LOV is the better company to invest with.LOV has a proven model that works worldwide.
10% company traded?
Either the number one share holder selling a piece, or otherwise its a portion of NZCS whoever that may be....
Hoglett Hamlett Limited* 148,330,600 38.28
New Zealand Central Securities Depository Ltd 60,370,705 15.58
http://investor.michaelhill.com/stat...8-ade3d088276a from the annual report.
We will find out soon enough who the seller is and potentially who the buyer is if it is one parcel.
Paying for the boat?
Correct, its Fisher Funds who sold down...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332291
Wonder who bought them though.
Simple rule I have followed over the years - buy when they first disclose and then, sell when Fisher Fund buys, and buy when Fisher Fund sells. Watch your exit though - they will buy and keep on buying so sell close to the top to them.
As close as I can get to a sure fire 'win win' you will ever get!
Time to keep buying methinks:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201903...9rpz0q0qzh.pdf
I've been thinking of topping up given the low current price is.
Brave buyers at 54 cents.!
The pain continues.
I remember rob fyfe bought huge lots of MHJ after getting into this trainwreck for 70 cents...
This goes to show that not all director purchases should be viewed as positive...(at least momentarily)
They have stated margin contraction.
That means margin contraction.
That means to get the same profit, you need to "greatly" improve sales.That is not happening.
11 store closures come at a cost.
10 new stores will take years to recover their fit out costs.
In plain language it is a disaster.
Only positive is increase in online sales.But comes off an extremely low base and now only accounts for approx 3% of sales.
Half year operating profit margin down to 9%. Market has been fully aware the margin contraction, and has act accordingly. I don't think there will be further margin contraction. SP has down from 80C to 55C. I estimate EPS at around 8C. MHJ both PE and PB have be down to historical low.
Yes percy they did mention margins - a full year gross margin of 61.1%, compared against 62.8% for the prior year.
That’s 1.7% points gross margin drop
On $560m that’s nearly a $10m margin hit ...aussie dollars ...straight through to bottom line.
Once a trend starts (during transformations) it usually continues or at best it’s hard to arrest a down trend
They said the margin drop was due to getting rid of old stock.
They also previously said that they were targeting up to $10m in overhead savings.
This $10-25 million back pay issue better not affect our dividends or well see below 40c
The Hill family must have most of their wealth invested in this business.
They won't want to see that destroyed.
No doubt MHJ operate in a tough industry, and they haven't done well in the past a few years. But the Company have no going concern issues. For half year ended 31/12/2018, the company have $7.7m cash on hand and over $220m inventory, with only $28m bank loans. Assets very easily cover liabilities. With net tangible asset backing of 0.49 AUD per share. The Company is extremely safe and largely undervalued. Shareholders only need patience to wait share price rise from current level.
Consider their huge ongoing lease commitments.They are liabilities.
Mall rentals are savage.Only way out is at renewal, or at the end of the lease.
So huge liabilties to be funded from a broken business model.?
Stock valuations .Take extreme care. Depends on a lot of variables.
When a business is under pressure, stock loses value very quickly.
Fixtures and fiitings become near worthless.
Well, you view everything on MHJ is negative. That's fine. I agree MHJ is not good. But we buy/sell shares for the purpose of making money. At current level of SP, I think the majority of negative matters, if not all, have already been reflected. I don't think there are huge room for SP drop. Buy now and most likely can make profit.
Very negative.
Was very negative on Postie Plus years before they fell over and were brought out of admistration.Shareholders lost everything.
Been very negative on Smiths City for years.
Been negative on MHJ for awhile now.
Sitting on the fence with Briscoes and Hallensteins.
Never liked KMD's business model.
Still like Lovisa,but currently am avoiding retail ,building, and retirement sectors.
Live in hope my Turners will turn around.
Buy MHJ now ?...No.
ps If you search Sharetrader threads you will see my posts on retail stocks.Every year or so a guy used to post a new thread."The King buys Postie."No sure which one you will find,but they all ended in sadness.
This has to be very good news for MHJ. Same store sales up 11.9% per previous quarter. and positive sales across the board with Canada up 16%.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...456/309533.pdf
Canada is proving the be very successful.
The 40 year promotion has been very successful too.
However,margin compression continues,as does competition.
Also I take it as a warning,[sensible] .;"Negotiations of existing leases,renewals and refurbishments remain a key priority for the business."
I feel this year's Christmas trading will be the test of whether MHI will survive, or manage to put the fizz back into the bottle.
Well, there are always challenges(for any business and any companies). I put my faith on MHJ as it is one of very few of NZ retail companies profitably expand to overseas.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12169959
"Before Michael Hill, Bracken was chief executive of ASX-listed retail company Specialty Fashion Group, which operates retailers City Chic and Millers, among others.
When he joined Specialty Fashion Group, its market capitalisation was A$20m, and when he left the business in October it was over A$250m."
MHJ current CEO is a genius. He made SFG share price up twelvefold within less a year!
Well, I just give some more background information in regards to this CEO, which MHJ announcement didn't give more details.
Since the CEO was on board, MHJ branded collection sales have been up from 20% of total sales to 38% of total sales. E-commerce sales are up nearly 40% compared to same quarter last year. I'm very impressed the new CEO's ability of execution. Now I have known more about him and am confident MHJ SP will be over $1 in near future.
Surely we can't give all credits to Bracken for Specialty's recovery. But as per the article: ""The board gave me almost a white piece of paper and said 'do whatever you think is necessary to deliver the best possible outcome for our shareholders". It showed it was his decision to sell off $31M non-performing brands to make Specialty turnaround.
https://www.ragtrader.com.au/people/...llion-sell-off
Big interest in MHJ today.
Getting close to break even now, ha ha.
Someone believes MHJ has nailed it?
Xmas Trading must be going very well.
Closest day with similar volume was on 04/12.
Things heading in right direction
Even giving $100,000 to bushfire fund
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...135/315278.pdf
Online sales still very modest at 3% of total sales.
Right direction? Perhaps,however more treading water to me,as margin and business model issues remain challenging.
Landlords are never easy to talk to.Only time they seem to listen is when negotiating new leases.
Interesting noting the NZ stores seem to be trading the best.
Do not know which country is giving them the online growth.
HLG are getting their's from Australia.
Well, at least they are progressing. Impressed.
Margin issue is not only for MHJ but for the entire industry. It's tough for retailers in this world but MHJ are going to take high-end market. I went to Westfield newmarket during the holiday and paid a visit to MHJ store there. The products are very sharp and surely expensive. Everyday the store only need one or two transactions then sales will easily go over $30k p.w.
I like the brand, but as a shareholder I'm a bit disappointed on how it turned down in the last few years with even decreasing dividends. My holding is not that big so I still can live without worrying it but thinking of being down from $1.28 makes me think if I'm better off it.
Percy I agree with you, 3% of sales is just the online makes me think. Many other retailers have a better online sale. Though I have to say I bought a pair of earrings for my wife near Xmas and she wanted to see in-store how they look on her, hence maybe online sales are not strong. I have to say she didn't want to go to MHJ knowing I'm a shareholder :(. Pascoes was busier than MHJ that day in Lambtom Quay.
Wonder how good their man made diamonds are?
Sorry - grown in the lab ...but still synthetic to me