JTH, Thanks for comments, I will still make a profit unless it falls guess well see and I guess not a bad stock to be stuck with for a bit longer otherwise.
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JTH, Thanks for comments, I will still make a profit unless it falls guess well see and I guess not a bad stock to be stuck with for a bit longer otherwise.
Black Knat,I will go with the flow, the only stock I'm holding very long term is Sum,a lot of others are in deep red like Diligent and TTk but I'm not doing anymore quick selling of red arrowed stocks at the moment, at least TTK pays a good dividend and long term will come up
Couta1 mate, are you trading now? Trading and buying mid/long term are a hell of alot different. Make sure you know what you're doing.
Wolf, I little bit of swing and positional trading no day trading stuff,cheers
I'm trying to get my head around how SUM would cope with a significant downturn. I'm not concerned about share price or dividends for such a situation - just that they come out the end in acceptable shape.
A significant income stream in a strong market is re-selling occupation rights for more than the previous owner paid (and selling new units with margin inbuilt). What happens in a down market? Some round numbers, assuming that new builds are winding down in a downturn, so it is mainly resales happening:
$200K price per occupational right
200 re-sales per annum.
Assume resales can only achive a price of $185K. i.e. a 7.5% drop in the market for these units.
That equates to 15K x 200 = $3m reduction in available cashflow.
Looking at other income and expenses, it appears they may need to borrow small amounts to keep things running. Probably could weather it. An interest rate rise at the same time would cause additional pressure.
To me, the company seems strong enough to weather it. Have others done any analysis?
(I am not discounting the possibility that GFC mk II may occur at some stage. The unbalances have only got worse since 2008. I'd prefer to own shares that can weather a downturn, if needed).
Cyclist - may I suggest you research how Ryman did during the last property fall in 2008. I don't know the answer but as a listed co, it would be easy to find out. I understand it did alright.
Black knat,Thank you for your honesty, a lot of food for thought, just regarding any trading it would be a long time before I would need to account to IRD on any profit due to my large loss, I would agree with you about the TA though I have made more profit on random tries than using TA and after all if the Govt had overridden the com com I wouldn't be sitting on the loss and I don't believe any TA could predict that, it could have gone either way so my investment in Sum is based on FA only, once again thanks for your genuine reply.
Thought you guys might be interested in this if you haven't already seen it.
http://www.listener.co.nz/current-af...good-business/
Black knat, Forgot to add you are correct when you say others are not using the same amount of money as myself, there are a lot of big talkers on here and I thought they must be trading large sums like myself and then I hear them say they loss a grand or so and started to think I'd better listen to less of the hype or I'm going to be the worst off on this forum at the end of the day.
Go carefully couta1.
I did post on CNU thread on 10/11/2013 post No.1356;"I don't think you should be investing in the sharemarket."
Not a nice thing to say to a newbie,but was intended to be a wake up call.I hate losing capital, and I hate seeing other sharetrader members losing their capital.
Couta, I really think you need to understand yourself as a trader or an investor?
I would never be a trader, because I haven't studied technical analysis to the bones. So for me or yourself trying to predict the market, we will get burnt... N i have been burnt.
If you are investing in value companies and you have done your FA, then don't worry about the 1-2% swings, or even 10% swings..
May I ask how long have you been investing for? It sounds like you've been investing for at least 3 years plus? If so, you should be accommodated to the daily SP swings...
Couta, I really think you need to understand yourself as a trader or an investor?
I would never be a trader, because I haven't studied technical analysis to the bones. So for me or yourself trying to predict the market, we will get burnt... N i have been burnt.
If you are investing in value companies and you have done your FA, then don't worry about the 1-2% swings, or even 10% swings..
May I ask how long have you been investing for? It sounds like you've been investing for at least 3 years plus? If so, you should be accommodated to the daily SP swings...
Black Knot, I was under a broker for 3 years and had a good range of fixed interest and reset investments with a very good average interest rate i purchased a few shares through them and did well but wasn't happy paying the steeper fees so switched to DB and converted most of my fixed interest etc into shares as I saw more potential and have been learning some good lessons the hard way, Percy I have considered your comment and its not something I'm going to rule out if I cashed up now I'd still walk away with 830k but my wife is very happy to have a large chunk of our money in retirement village stock but the question is can I leave it at that with my personality type? Baller thanks for your email
It worries me a little that while I think your nodding your head to some of the comments on here I really don't think you understand the realities of what your doing - your gambling.
If you make money, its purely accidental, but will you realise that?
or will it continue to support bad behaviours and uneducated guesses about stock movements.
Why not lock down like 90% of your portfolio back into a well diversified bundle, and then play with 10% while you learn. Read up on TA if that's what you want to use and definitely look into using stop-losses.
Singlehandedly you've made me reassess where I think the market might be up to, I think maybe your an early adopter of a bunch more people piling into shares misinformed and out for the 'quick wins' shares can bring.
I don't mean to be harsh but your posts are painful to read knowing the mess your in.
ADDITION: But I really do appreciate your honesty, maybe a wake up call for a few new people on here to the realities of 'trading'.
Mistake Trix, Thanks no more rash moves for me now just have to sit on my Dil Ttk and Peb red arrows for now don't want any more loss Dil is my worst at 40% down like I said I could sell up and walk away with 830k but want to wait and see what happens with Dil etc not keen on realising any more loss at the moment so stuck in jail on some of these stocks right now,any advice I get will tell me to sell or hold and I guess who knows which is the right decision, happy to hold Sum though of course.
Sorry Mista Trix not mistake
I hear Macquaries have fallen in love with SUM and have a target price of $4.50.
Could anyone confirm what I have heard?
Correct Percy and by the way many thanks for your email
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11162246
The Herald have finally started their threatened expose of the retirement sector. I wonder if this will have any material effect on the sector as a whole. It feels to me like an opinion piece designed to inflame the outrage of their readers and spark some sales of papers. You could probably do this sort of journalism on any industry and cherry pick some horror stories to make great copy.
Let’s hope so Dej, there are no doubt some dodgy retirement homes out there and this focus may steer the more discerning toward the larger more professional operations. With all the awards accumulated it must make Summerset’s marketing managers job a dream at present.
Pretty lame so far. I can understand why the Husband was upset but 'mauled' is taking it a bit far, she was 'consenting', she just mistook who it was. And if you read to the very last line, the Husband sent her back after the event.
The fact is some homes only provide the minimum standard of care. For some people, they probably want more but that costs money. Also when you are trying to just be on the line, of course you will drop below it occasionally. Is that good enough - no but unless they find something symptomatic, or deliberate, it is a non issue in my view. There are systems in place for complaints etc to ensure the minimum standards are maintained.
Was just grabbing a coffee and stumbled across this in todays Dominion Post :)
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y13...pshtfr9ngx.jpg
Bit out of date isn't it - havent they won Best RV 4 years in a row now. No wonder I dont read hard copy newspapers anymore!!!!
Yeah was thinking the same when I saw it ha. But good to see her getting the recognition she deserves regardless of the DP's timing.
Having personally witnesssed the way my father was "cared" for in Ryman Orewa dementia unit over many many months I am very sad to confirm that standards are very low indeed, at least at Ryman's Orewa facility in late 2012 they were.
A brief over-view of the house of horrors I witnessed at Ryman's facility
Lack of patient notes, each new shift of predominantly Phillipino woprkers seemed to have little to no idea of his advanced medical needs and condition
Frequent loss of hearing aids, glasses, nobody seemed to care or help him find them, scabies that went untreated for too long and too infrequently, staff that didn't want to get their hands dirty applying the medication, reluctance to call the doctor on many occassions when the family thought it was in his best interests, (we almost had to threaten them with legal action), lack of timely assistance with toilet requirements, in my opinion under-nourishment with meals, lack of assistance with obtaining adequate hydration, he couldn't walk at all towards the end, over medication by miles in our opinion...really it was a truly horrific way to see my father gradually pass away. He deserved much better after more than 50 years service as a Presbyterian minister. If it wern't for the fact that my Mum is in good nick and lived nearby in another retirement facility and could visit him daily, his treatment would have been much worse.
I was ashamed to be a shareholder of Ryman and have sinced exitied my association with Ryman and the level of "care", if you can call it that was a significant part of that decision.
There are many reasons i now prefer to invest in SUM instead of Ryman.
1. SUM is growing much faster.
2. SUM is muti award winning
3. SUM is better value based on its much faster growth rate
4. SUM is better diversified geographically and has a better spead of retirement facilities in the popular North Island area's
5. SUM is more heavily exposed to the Auckland market with 5 villages, (RYM has five times the market capitalisation so would need 25 villages in Auckland to have the same relative exposure, not the 5 ? it has.
I am proud to support a multi award winning company (SUM) and was ashamed to be a shareholder of Ryman when I saw the treatment of my father.
I see RYM in their latest press release prattling on about how important their standards are to them and how they've made moves to improve their systems and keep families better informed blah, blah, blah. I'm not impressed, too little too late as far as I'm concerned.
Sorry about the long rant but I have a VERY strong ethical preference to invest in this company (SUM) that win's best standards awards year after year after year. Diversification be dammed, I'll invest in the company that really looks after our elderly folks.
I'd bet money, (and have effectivly), that SUM has nothing to hide, unlike some operators in this field.
This sector absolutly needs transperancy and any move to publish / put independent audit reports of the standards applying to each individual facility be it rest home, hospital or dementia care, should be encouraged so that families can make informed decisions on where to get proper care for their loved ones.
I agree that standards should be better.
What extra cost do you think there would be to get the level of care we expect. A lot of the issues you state are due to low levels of staff or not wanting to incur extra costs (ie doctor call outs). The sad truth is that those with dementia are very expensive to care for.
I do wonder if there is room in the market for a Ryman Gold (ie. a higher standard of care, well above the minimum but also at a cost well above the minimum.
When the Presbyterians rewrote the bible for their benefit they added it in the back somewhere that ministers were to get special treatment. Its just after revelations.
They went to the same publisher that allowed Catholic priests to drink and mess with young boys.
Disc. I am Catholic, though not a priest (and not much of a catholic to be honest)
Awards, I assume the award process is fairly robust.
He gave up a lucrative career to serve the community for a very modest salary. The irony of someone who worked so hard all his life serving the community literally six days a week all the time being so poorly served in his last period of life isn't lost on me but I agree that everyone deserves to live the last bit of their life with as much dignity and proper care as possible. My point, is this is not a media beat up on a sector, the poor treatment of our senior citizens is something that needs exposure and debate.
Wages in the sector are poor and its very difficult to attract good staff, that's the key issue affecting the standards of care. Really the minimum living wage idea thing of circa $18 per hour that's doing the rounds now as a concept is something I support as every worker deserves to live in dignity too.
I couldn't agree more Roger. My mother lives in Orewa and the word amongst her friends is not to go near RYM. As I've said in previoous posts, I really hope SUM protect their brand, it may be worth a fair bit in the years to come. I'm really glad Norah Barlow is going to be on the board.
disc: Hold SUM (and this post is not meant to be a ramp)
I wish I could say I was surprised. We used to know the manager of the Dementia unit there, (Dad knew her from his previous work) and while she was employed there standards were acceptable and Dad received good care but sadly another problem for this sector is that anyone who's really good at managing health facilities is in high demand and she was head-hunted by another operator, thereafter standards for the most needy patients declined rapidly.
P.S. I'm not trying to ramp either, just venting a bit of frustration that's still left over, adding some first hand perspective that there's some real substance behind the Herald article and saying why its so important to me that I support a company that has been independently assessed through the awards process as having the best standards year after year.
And yes i'm happy Norah is staying on as a board member and hope her retirement from full time CEO duty gives her some more time too manage her health / weight better, no offence intended.
Roger doesn't mean that Toasty, its just his father served the community, for the good of everyone and he was treated like that. As ministers they do so much for the good of country as well. There are some bad apples but that doesn't mean we bash everyone with the same hammer.
Toasty. That was completly insensitive / offensive and uncalled for.
Here's a revelation just for you mate, you know what, you are actually allowed to keep offensive opinions to yourself, please feel free to do so and that goes for your other mate as well.
Interesting that the Govt has been given a report suggesting investment in the very young gives a better return than investment (expenditure I suppose) on the elderly.
I don't think the two should be mentioned on the same page. It will be very interesting to see what the Govt's response is.
That plot down the bottom is alarming given the grey tsunami approaching.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11159174
Can we please have constructive posts and discussions regarding investing.
Cheers.
I find it somewhat interesting that so far all the articles in the Herald have been negative. I know the adage is that bad news sells better but I wonder if there will be any positive stories as part of the series.
Cameron Slater on the Whale Oil blog displayed an internal Herald email some time back suggesting that it was pretty much an orchestrated beat up. It seems that no matter how successful a company or industry in New Zealand people just want to tear it down. Even the fact that the rest home sector is a good investment has been portrayed from the viewpoint that the industry is just out to extract every last dollar from their residents.
Surely if people are being treated so badly they would leave or their family would shoulder the responsibility of caring for them or finding somewhere better? These journalist must have gone through the homes and rejected every feel good story and seized on the disasters.
Toasty - they will all be negative. Not hard to find 10 examples (2 articles a day for a 5 day series) of bad care. They will also tarnish the whole industry rather than a Consumer style ranking - why not do a table with various metrics - could turn into an annual think like the school rankings.
The fact is these places are need so why not show whose best (using industry wide data, not one off specific events) so hopefully the bad drop out and everyone else tries to raise their game to win further business.
Bad news sells copy and the Herald are desperate to do exactly that.
Anyone know the new website for the new Ministry's audit reports of each health care facility apparently being made available to the public today ?
Interesting article around the debate regarding full audit disclosure of healthcare standards.
http://www.insitemagazine.co.nz/news...s-got-to-give/
My inlaws are at RYM Orewa and have no problems at all, in fact the complete opposite.
No, self care unit. They are happy with RHY as a hole, best thing they did was move there. They know quite a few of others there and all happy.
Thanks.
That's the difference. Nothing wrong with Ryman's general facilities, in fact the village at Remuera is one of the very best I've seen. The issues I've seen are with their level of care in the secure dementia unit. I hope Ryman are working hard to improve their service delivery.
P.S. I've now reviewed the Ministry's summary Audit report of Ryman's Evelyn Page facility in Orewa available on the website detailed above and it doesn't look too bad but doesn't line up with what I saw there, I'll leave it at that.
On a more positive investment note its intersting to see Ryman's SP come in for a correction, (down about 60 cents in the last week or so), but SUM's staying well supported, value shines through :)
under surveillance....troy here...read your post once...winced...blinked...wiped eyes..repeated process.....yep it remained the same....Are you taking the mickey here...or are you serious...in fact Im stunned that no other poster has commented....gee mate me hopes your taking the piss...
^^ I agree.
Anyway...back to investment. I see very well regarded Milford Asset Management have just issued a substaintial shareholder notice advising their holding has increased from 5.66% to 6.66%.
The depth seems to mean very little at the moment. Almost like there's two different markets, which I suppose there is.
Its almost like Milford and others are happy to hoover up stock at $3.25 whenever they can and other insto's are happy to take profits at $3.30, presumably from their recent allocations from Quadrant's sell down at $3.10.
I can't help wonder how long this situation will prevail, another month perhaps ?
Yep, I was thinking the same. It's basically a good time to take a position in the stock which is what Milford is doing. The SP will most likely be flat and then run up in February next year.
However, a lot of investors/traders will be looking for a quicker buck elsewhere. It will be interesting if/when the SP heads north. It's possible there could be quite a surge of investors returning.
Finally finished fiddling with my retirement village portfolio: basically selling some RYM and buying SUM with the proceeds so they have more equal waiting in the portfolio.
I hope that will give me a better return over the medium term.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
$2.4m went through pre-market @ $3.20
Noob question.
If 2.4m went through @ 3.20, how does the allocation of shares work?
I see the below currently traded
Volume
789,533 /$2,528,578
I assume the 2.4m shares was a " crossing" where a broker handles a sale from one client to another ( or a number of others). Often done a bit below last market price in recognition that otherwise a large number of shares put on the market would tend to depress the price.
Great thanks for confirming that macduffy, I assumed that could be the case.
I wonder with the annual stock brokers selections for 2014 about to be published later this month, how many brokers will have SUM in their selection ?
I'm hoping a large majority when you consider how many overvalued stocks there are at the moment. Well I hope so anyway haha.
Top up time anyone?
Hi Couta1 - Tempting to top up, reasonable drop today. Seems to be small volumes, probably cashing up on a win, with more negative market sentiment.
Long term SUM is certainly a winner. Short term, it could easily drop to below $3.10. There are likely to be some Australians reducing holdings/cashing up their shares with the NZ dollar so strong. Also, prior to xmas, the xmas churn happens... those people cashing up, to fund their festive/holiday season.
Check out PHB Crouta1 - unsure if you have had a look into them. They have a solid business, with not much similar competition. Growth may be a bit modest for some people, yet I recon this company is worth looking into.
Also, thanks for sharing the CNU story. I also sold out, at a loss, but much less significant to you. What a lesson that uncertainty has had for this stock. I still believe CNU will drop further, to how low, that is anyone's guess.
With interest rates due to rise next year, cash in the bank won't hurt.
Happy informed decision making
Thanks Food4Thought, I'm looking forward to Sums progress next year have half of my money tied up in the stock and happy about it, I believe Sum will be around $4.20 this time next year, yes with interest rates rising I will be putting available money back into good paying bonds as there will be some new issues coming up I'm sure.
Will look to top up around $3.00, will watch it though if it does dip under the $3 mark.
The 100 day moving average is $3.13. The fact that this is very close to the price Institutions widely supported the stock a while back when Quadrant sold out, and given good news since then, (approval of Hobsonville site and winning the Australasian Retirement Operator of the year award again), notwithstanding the fact that some retail holders cash up a bit for Christmas I expect it to find solid support in the $3.10-$3.13 range. I am happy to top up in that range and slip some into my family trust. My kids will think I'm a bloody legend when I die, which at 52, hopefully won't be anytime soon :).
I think you guys are thinking a bit wishfully to think Sum is going to drop below $3, that would mean a major correction given what the companies done in the last 6 months.
Yes I've discovered half the markets got an IQ approaching Einstein and the other half approaching a blond on a bad day.
I suspect anything below $3.10 would be a buying opportunity for some of the new SSH's out there. It hard to tell, but that's my feeling.
I'm overcommitted in SUM at the moment and can't make use of the current SP. I actually broke one of my rules which says I don't average up or down unless there has been 10% movement in price. This is to prevent me from reading too much into short term changes. It was looking very good there for a whle with the QPE overhang gone and the SP into uncharted territory.
Goldstein, What's a movement of 10 c or so when we're all hopeing to double our money in a few years I'm loaded to the max so not buying anymore but as Roger said just enjoying the start of a long enjoyable yacht ride.
Couta1, it's part of my strategy. My rule would have suggested that I wait for $3.60 or $3.00 for my next purcahse. I put rules in place as I am probably only going to be right 65% of the time regarding any decisions I make - maybe it's less than that, and these rules are to stop me burning my capital.
If you carry out a reasonable number of trades, then sooner or later you will do a very bad one. It really does pay to admit to yourself that you (i) don't have all the information about any given stock and (ii) you are not the invetsment guru you think you are.
Goldstein, Yes those bad ones can be very bad as I we'll know I'm feeling very humbled now but still enthusiastic I mean without that we all might as well just toss the towel in right now,cheers
Just a bit more Christmas chop to get thru and then we can hoist the big spinnaker once January is here, (January effect) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_effect and enjoy a lovely breezy tailwind in calm seas as we cruise towards another strong growth announcement in late February.
More good news,Sum purchasing 2 Christchurch sites taking on Rym in their territory
Nice. I like the announcement. Christchurch is perfect for new aged care homes. Me thinks SUM will become my biggest holding today.
For anyone who can't see it :D
Quote:
ASSET: SUM: Summerset Investing Nearly $200m at Two Christchurch SitesSUM
18/12/2013 09:26
ASSET
REL: 0926 HRS Summerset Group Holdings Limited
ASSET: SUM: Summerset Investing Nearly $200m at Two Christchurch Sites
NZX, ASX & MEDIA RELEASE
18 DECEMBER 2013
SUMMERSET INVESTING NEARLY NZ$200 MILLION AT TWO CHRISTCHURCH SITES
Retirement village and aged care operator Summerset announced today it has
purchased two Christchurch sites on which to develop villages, investing
around NZ$200 million into retirement living for older Cantabrians.
The sites are located in Casebrook and Wigram. They will be the company's
first Christchurch villages.
The company intends to build more than 200 townhouses and villas for
independent living, and care apartments for those with more advanced needs at
the Casebrook village. The village will be located on a 9.7ha site in
Casebrook, which is an up-and-coming area in the north of Christchurch, where
significant development is proposed.
The Wigram village will be set on 5.4ha and will have more than 200
retirement units. It is near to the Wigram Skies development. Both villages
will have a village centre, combining recreational facilities and a care
centre providing rest home and hospital-level care.
The purchase of the Wigram site is subject to subdivision of title.
Summerset CEO Norah Barlow said the company is looking forward to being part
of the city as it rebuilds.
"Christchurch is undergoing dramatic change and it's exciting to be part of
that. We're pleased to have found these sites after searching for many years
in the region.
"We look forward to providing the people of Christchurch and the wider region
with first class retirement villages set in great locations. We have
residents who have moved from Christchurch to Summerset's other locations
throughout the country since the earthquakes. We're very pleased to be able
to offer Cantabrians Summerset's range of retirement living options without
having to leave the region or their families and friends."
CFO and CEO-designate Julian Cook said, "There is significant pressure for
quality, affordable housing in Christchurch. Those moving to a Summerset
village not only get the benefits of living in a safe and secure community in
purpose-built homes, they also free up homes in the city for younger
families."
Latest census figures show the number of people aged 65 years and over is
increasing. Over 73,000 people are aged 85 years or over - an increase of
nearly 30% in this age group since 2006. The ageing population, coupled with
a shortage of housing and retirement village offering in Christchurch means
there are few options for older Cantabrians. Summerset's two villages will go
some way to addressing this problem.
These two Christchurch sites bring the total number of greenfield sites in
Summerset's portfolio to six.
Mr Cook said, "The company has strong growth objectives with Christchurch
being an important part of this. The city was a visible gap in our portfolio,
and we've had lots of interest from Christchurch residents into our
villages."
ENDS
For investor relations enquiries:
Julian Cook
Chief Financial Officer
julian.cook@summerset.co.nz
04 894 7310 or 029 894 7310
For media enquiries:
Kimberley Rothwell
Communications Advisor
kimberley.rothwell@summerset.co.nz
04 894 6993 or 027 601 2001
End CA:00245336 For:SUM Type:ASSET Time:2013-12-18 09:26:50
Wondering if this sell order will get filled :)
10,000 shares @ 1150000 cents
For those looking to get in I advise you do so before Sums full year result next march, I think once the market realizes the true value of the company you won't ever buy the stock at these prices again, I kicked myself for not buying Rym at $3 and look where it is now, will be the same for Sum so don't be timid
Kewl, no seller depth, perhaps we'll find our next point to hover at for a couple of months.
SUM is a funny beast, a bit of action (either way) every couple of months, just slowly climbing, which I'm happy with, its not a traders stock as there's not enough movement, so I'm happy to watch it jump a few percent every couple of months and then sits ... then same again a few months later.
SUM, the ultimate teacher of patience,
[QUOTE=Mista_Trix;450261]Kewl, no seller depth, perhaps we'll find our next point to hover at for a couple of months.
SUM is a funny beast, a bit of action (either way) every couple of months, just slowly climbing, which I'm happy with, its not a traders stock as there's not enough movement, so I'm happy to watch it jump a few percent every couple of months and then sits ... then same again a few months later.
SUM, the ultimate teacher of patience,[/QUO Your right but ive got the feeling we may see a substantial jump next year
Your right mistatrix but I've got the feeling we may see a substantial jump next year
Bought some more at $3.25 (avg price $3.30). Unless there are major changes in structure I'm taking a 5-10 year view on this one.
Great to see them diversifying away from Auckland. It makes the company more resilient. Happy with the low divvy if they are doing that sort of investment.
It is good news, reasonable sites both on the outskirts, but with quite longish walks to the Hornby and Papanui shops/malls respectively. I do hope SUM time the construction well so as not to catch the peak constraints and pricing during the rebuild.
Having said that, I know from first hand exp that it is really not very easy at all to find any form of quality accommodation, it's an extremely competitive market in shaky town at the middle to top end, and I wouldn't be surprised if SUM were to demand a nice price premium for elderly folk moving into very nice Christchurch retirement units.
Onward and upward.
Wasnt a cheap purchase , any chance we see a capital raising at some point?