Clearly defined areas of doubt and uncertainity
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hoop
...Don't fret too much about the Market sectors being out of whack on the chart...the extra heavy handed QE has stuffed up theory..
Do you mean: "This time IT IS different" ? :)
At any given point in time you can probably define the probabilities of the current market being in every likely 'market 'state' and the probabilities of all the possible near future 'market states' (except for the ones with the black swans in them, damn those birds :mad ;: ).
And when sufficient time has lapsed you can, with the benefit of hindsight, correctly define past 'market states'.
But the name of game is long term survival and maybe even profiting from the sequence of events as they unfurl around you.
May you strategy be successful.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: definitely deep and meaningful :t_up:
Brazil: A bric(k) in the Global wall is crumbling
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Paper Tiger
Do you mean: "This time IT IS different" ? :)
At any given point in time you can probably define the probabilities of the current market being in every likely 'market 'state' and the probabilities of all the possible near future 'market states' (except for the ones with the black swans in them, damn those birds :mad ;: ).
And when sufficient time has lapsed you can, with the benefit of hindsight, correctly define past 'market states'.
But the name of game is long term survival and maybe even profiting from the sequence of events as they unfurl around you.
May you strategy be successful.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: definitely deep and meaningful :t_up:
Hi PT ..welcome back
Yeah ...so many ways this global world could turn at the moment..We are blessed with a mass of free valuable data(and tabloid junk) these days with an exception of NZ data (..I'm pissed off about this and if I bitch long enough ..the penny might drop that allowing up to date NZ data to be freely transmitted, it may encourage many more people to invest in the market place rather than it being sucked up into uneconomic investment areas such as property...
...but I'm digressing..back to the point.....and with all that data we can become educated and begin to assess the probabilities of each "happening" ourselves and freely debate it on forums such as ST.....
QE stuffing up theory...this time is different? ..nah Theory and Practice sometimes disagree and often do when a giant individual or a market sector supply/demand gets disrupted creating an imbalance somewhere within the entire networked system of things...The system is self correcting (sometimes to our disliking)..It can be fiddled with to be moderated but cycle theory says the big wheel can be sped up. slowed down or stopped but it can never reverse...therefore PT This time is never different...just different players...
Speaking about disruption..watch Brazil..it's economy has nosedived S&P has downgraded it financial instruments back to junk status last revisited in 2008 GFC..
Couta's Sheeples have been pleading for USA to do something about their rising US$ which they see as having a bad economic effect on emerging countries as most hold US$ nominated debt and setting off waves of devaluing currencies..Of Course everyone says US$ is only one factor....There's hope that Commodity prices have bottomed out (for now) and with the countering emerging country's currency devaluation used as a buffer to the low commodity prices + internal domestic economy restructure there is hope of an economic turnabout back to increasing GDP growth.. however Brazil could become a causality..and risk a ripple effect as it is the 8th largest world economy The BRIC countries are the largest emerging countries...
(Aust..NZ.. Canada are not classed as an emerging country but are reliant on commodity markets)