Thankyou Hoop, very very interesting.
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Thankyou Hoop, very very interesting.
Hoop, given the charts are where they are, do you feel we are statistically likely to see a final push higher this year, a double top for instance, or do you feel is it all down hill from here ?
Hi Merc, would you mind sharing the name of the companies you recently bought into? Regards, Shambles
Remembering that I'm still in major learning curve mode and dipping a toe in rather than mortgaging the farm to the hilt (i.e. I could be wildly out) - PEB and CNU
Thank you Sparky. If wrong - we blame The Clown :)
Although, to be fair, both of these were on my, rather short, "Interest List" BEFORE coming to this forum
Snakk also appeared as a possible anomaly in the statistics. But although there is a highly entertaining thread, as I detest mobile phones (had one for years), suffer from "ad blindness" and take marketing people with a bag of salt it doesn't seem like a good match for me. I'm watching though and will be interested to see where it goes.
There's been much recent doom and gloom on this thread, perhaps rightfully so or perhaps we are presently in the midst of a correction, either way thought I would offer some balance.
Below are some links of reading interest in respect to the phase of the present secular bear cycle.
Many analysts believe that the present secular bear cycle is at or close to an end, and that we are at an inflection point of a forward secular bull cycle formation.
Will the secular bear take us down, or, are the markets at the cusp of a secular bull formation which could just go up from here ?
http://www.moneynews.com/Gary-Jakack...5/08/id/503353
http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/06/m...n-odds-of.html
Absolutley, if they are quality stocks presenting good value they will outperform over the long run, shouldn't loose sight of that. I take it that you've resisted any urge to totally cash up and hide in the wardrobe ?
Many, many years ago a lecturer told our class, "You can always tell the state of the economy by the number of cranes on the horizon." Over the years we have noticed this to be true. Times of boom the cranes are everywhere, times of gloom not a one to be seen.
It is the transitional times that cranes aren't the best indicator
Hi Mac.
I've read both articles...both say trust me I know what I'm doing (quote Sledgehammer (old TV series)......Gary Jakacky doesn't seem to grasp the secular theory concept as he runs off target with macro and micro events to justify the secular movement..instead of the theory itself..
Jeff Saut..seem to know little more about secular stuff...but he too has fallen short...with no analytical reasons either..could be he doesn't want to lose his readers with the complex stuf....He mentions there are others out there that believed the Secular Bear was killed off by the nasty cyclic grizzly bear.....These claims have been argued out over the last 2 years and was put to bed..It seems Jeff either don't follow it to its outcome or he is in denial due to the "won't say die" attitude of the DOW and S&P500 that seems to want go up forever....
Both obviously haven't considered the fact that secular bear characteristic flat tops trading ranges is it's behaviour but exemptions do occur e.g AORDS 2003 -2007 freakish bull run...(see here)
Secular bear killed off in AORDs???? was debated by Winner and I a few month back...we needed more time to get more results to be sure....
The Wall St secular bear is alive and well and is tracking slowly downwards from the 2007 Exurbant heights...Time is not the factor with Secular theory ..it is distance traveled for the annualised PE Ratio to reach it reversal points it could 3 years or 20+ years or anything in between
What everyone must remember including those two authors are
1.....Cyclic market reversals are measured by the Index (share) price trends
2.....Secular reversals are measured by the "annualised" PE Ratio trends...Price has nothing to do with it.. There are examples of a secular bear market starting up during a cyclic bull market
3.....Research has proved there is no difference in the growth of the economy (GDP GNP) during either Equities secular bull or Bear Market.
4.....Different secular investment strategies are needed....Buy and Hold (sailing) works the best during a secular bull markets but terrible during the secular bear where active cyclic buying and selling(rowing) is the best Strategy.....Pension/insurance/superfunds funds are negatively affected by secular bears
The ending of a secular bear occurs when the annualised PE Ratio falls to below 10 stays under 10 for a length of time (not a normal PE Ratio spike as happened in 2008/09) then the secular bear ends when the annualised PE Ratio breaks upward above 10
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page20
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page15
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...markets/page19
QE explained, and September looks likely for easing to kick in
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...95F05C20130616
Given the obvious waves in the markets every time easing is mentioned, logic would suggest that it isn't time to pull back until these waves become ripples. Surely easing while there's still panic in the markets suggests the timing isn't correct.
All this QE is just making the rich richer (from rising asset prices) but the real dilemma for the those rich is that, as the gap widens between them and the rest of humanity, the natural human craving for fairness and having a slice of the pie will have immense
The last time the world saw such such disparities between the hyper-rich and the average guy was at the beginning of the Great Depression.
There will be change .... not this week or next week but sometime ..... when QE stops. QE has been unsustainable and slowly turning it off is not the cure, it has just exaggerated the underlying problem
updated news
China: two stated owned banks, Guang Da Bank and Xing Ye Bank triggered debt default. The amount is over 100 billion RMB.
The LIBOR is increasing up to 4.958% from 1.95% within 6 days.
The reason why I haven't mentioned it very much is that fact that with every below "expected" growth or a recessionary period there is a natural easing of Fiscal and Monetary policies...the system naturally adjusts.
To show the charts overall objective, the complex stuff is filtered out
When dealing with charts it is not wise (and impossible) to mention all the thousands of factors that occur at any given point of the day/week/month...complexity clouds the resulting issues..therefore it is assumed that all these 1000s of factors "always" correct themselves, so they and other self correcting factors can be filtered out of the charts overall objective. If a spanner is jammed into the system's gearbox it will result in a market correction which may become visible on a chart...Therefore us chartists don't become paranoid and sweat the small stuff in going our charting programmes.
Chartists if they think a factor is affecting the charts primary objective they can add that factor and produce a secondary chart that shows that secondary objective, as has happened in the previous post by Moosie....
Think of it this way...Imagine you hoping into the car to drive to work, if there is no noise do you always think about and talk about the hundred or so cogs all revolving around at differing rates all tied into a network to produce the job they are designed to do such as spin the front/back wheels of your car.. ..you are not going to sweat over one cog are you..unless it fails to do its job...If it does fail you will certainty know about it as the engine/gearbox develops a noise then you know something is wrong...If there is "Media noise" e,g car stereo You are not going to say at work everyday that a certain cog in your cars gearbox is doing this and that. I don't hear anything but I'm worried about ...............eh??..
Do you all get paranoid about turning on your TV and think that a part might fail somewhere within the kilometers of circuitry...no you don't unless the part has failed.
One of the thousands of factors (cogs) in the economy which always gets media attention is the Monetary easing and tightening cog ..OK this is a bigger cog (with its own network of complex sub cogs) in the economic gearbox and ordinary people get to feel the effects of it when it slowly spins around and at certain areas of its revolution it get to cause pain onto the general public..this is a good sign as it proves its still working....
Global Financial crisis 2007...the gearbox (financial system) developed a rattle..The mechanics came in, repositioned the slipped cogs which advanced the Monetary cog to the easing position...so far so good all the cogs are working...but we are worried as we can't hear if there is any noise... because the bloody car stereo is turned up too loud and the passer-byes can hear the sub booming up to a kilometer away
Charts are good as they may (by filtering out all noises) sense a vibration..If the gearbox seizes it will suddenly happen but a chart "may" pick up that vibration warning...
Thinking about all the possible things that could go wrong clutters up ones brain forcing one's mentals to do false logic thinking. Politicians are good at this and use it as a tool...it always happens and it always works...that why our daily Media we read is full of crap. See Bob Jones todays article "Too many people have sense of entitlement"
QE has been mentioned by the acedemics for decades that it is a two edged sword and can only be handled successfully by a highly skilled swordsman...Bernanke has the qualifications but the powers of B around him certainly don't...and I not sure about that Japanese bloke....and the Europe outfit could picking this sword up as well..............
It seems everyone wants to have a go with this sword....
Hmmm..mucking around with a much higher more powerful engine to get you where you want to go ....Hmmm ,,,that provides stress to its other networked parts.....a blown gearbox perhaps...eh Winner
Even if there is a clear signal which can be extracted from macro-economic data traditional chartist's wouldn’t adjust for it anyway would they? Stand to be corrected there though.
I agree .... I,m Not a chartist as I feel charts are a great history lesson.
Thats not to say I totally ignore them. But if a wave is created then all
ships will rock, some more than others depending on external factors that
made the wave. Or the building of the wave (GFC), It had to happen !!!.
Charts tend to display this in hindsight.
I learnt that lesson in 87. And I was lucky.
Hoop old son keep up the chart posts, I and others can always learn.
BB:)
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/while-y...ties-bd-141696
International markets looked good overnight, should be another positive days trading ... for the meantime at least.
Hmmm..maybe.... usually a correction lasts a couple of month on average..but you never know for sure as the time variation for how long a bull market correction last can be rather large... 1 month 6 months 9 months?
The view to be taken should one day at a time looking at possible scenarios both positive and negative and watching for those reversal signs..
Since its down trending and testing the 4400 (4398) again the pessimist view is.... what happens it the short/medium 4400 support breaks? Answer: no big deal.
The worry time starts if the NZX50 starts testing that Primary support at 4335 which has Secular connotations (2007 bull market top)
The correction so far is 5%... its a very small correction if it bottoms out here at 4400
i have a consolidation completing and a break of 4380 will fall at least another 100
i wouldnt be surprised to see another big fall in the dow tonight or fri night , asx could hit new lows next week
Bernhard hickey now on nat radio
NZ GDP slows down, only 0.3% for the first quarter. The expected figure is 0.6%.
China PMI data lower than May and in some financial trouble now.
Look at Singapore, Phillipine, Thai, Korea, HK, Indonesi, horrible day, Euro and America Zone also blue
Im thick what do guys mean...ZB...Hosking ..never have listened (apart from Vietch and Decker)...after I heard that tosser (Hosking) defended Hotchin and L Armstrong.
You must be young and love ads....cheers...
Hi Cool Bear
If a chartist is a Dow theory purist then the lines are drawn at closing day prices.
However modern technology has given us minute 5 minutes 15 minutes hourly daily monthly pricing ..so nowadays charting has to be treated differently with the differing timeframes....Long term stuff I still use closing prices...sometimes weekly prices shows a better picture... but for medium to short term stuff I find that using candlesticks is the way to go adding logical intraday pricing and Gaps into the mix. Gaps are very powerful support and Resistance points.
I say logical intraday...sometimes you get the flash when someone "fatfingers" an order. ..Also TA doesn't work that well with illiquid stocks and intraday pricing can be bizarre for example when the sell time period arrives and you've still got say 100 shares left out of a 20000 sell order so you quit those at a much lower price as there are no buyers within coooeee of the market price just so to complete that 20000 sell order.
An interesting debate emerged among chartists in early August 2011 (I think from memory) when MR Market had a mental breakdown and a flash crash appeared the question was do we include that as a point or do we ignore it...Some said yes some said no and some sat on the fence I was a fence sitter :mellow: as I had no idea.......With hindsight it is now added.... as spooky as it seems now it formed a point on the primary uptrend line with the Xmas 2011 bottom when that bull market correction occurred....
[QUOTE=bull....;413064]i wouldnt be surprised to see another big fall in the dow tonight or fri night , asx could hit new lows next week[/QUOTE
yuk it was bigger than i thought
On the upside there's likely to be a few good buys over the next week for anyone who has any cash ... alas I do not.
NZX did or did not have more than 2% drop within one trading day these two years?
Cheap shares??
have a look at the NZX50 Manhattan on the Chart
If the primary support 4435 fails expect the index to cuddle up to the MA200 which be as much as 8% below that support...this gives you the perspective of how far and how fast the index went up in relation with the distance apart with its MA200 line.. In my opinion the index is miles too far apart from it MA200 line...OK, there is a lag effect with the MA200 ...even so if NZX50 buys time they could meet at the 4200 halfway area still about 5% lower than now....
...Manhattan climbs can be a worry when they peter out
Hoop staying out until buy signals return
disc 85% cash
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...5019062013.png
There is blood on the floors - even XRO is down :scared:
Hoop, a lot of people have much respect for your posts and your charting exp and advice on this site including myself.
There are a variety of traders and investors who use and read posts here at ST. What balancing and calming advice can you offer young or less experienced investors who are still in and who may be prone to panic sell at such a point in time ?
TEL now showing 1 cent up. Bleeding stops?
Well done Hoop, at 85% cash. I had difficulties getting to 80%. There is always a reason to hold to this one or that.
This a good time for the brave and the intraday traders. But I am neither and will wait out the lousy weather.
Caution all, maybe this is not affecting NZX, but be very very careful about this news as the major trading country.
SHIBOR (shanghai interbank offered rate) today jumped up to 13.444% (578.40 BP), People said bank of china may trigger 40billion RMB debt default this afternoon. RBC is having a meeting now to decide whether bail out or other alternative ways to solve the problem.
Personally, I am expected China Index down more than 3% today, which may cause panic to other countries share markets.
Hey all,
Long time listener, first time caller!
I too find the human aspect of all this fascinating and, as always, the great zh is a fine read on those days your fingers get a bit burnt: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ps-form-margin.
Got myself to 30% cash today after slowly trying to rebalance this week, managed to end the week with DIL still out of whack and at almost 20% of my portfolio, I'm licking my wounds a bit!
DK
PBOC injects cash, rates retreat - bloomberg
What is it?? that most only heard that we are easing up on the easing so to speak and not the bit about the economy is growing and that's why we are easing up
:confused:
I'm confused! must be friday
Me to Jay....for me. However my "portfolio" despite the recent days events has not lost a 'jot"...Main holdings being CEN PFI RYM MET CUE PPP...I suppose it could be said that at times I also have not enjoyed the "highs" of various companies....cheers
It is Friday....
Hi Mac
As you are aware the NZX50 index has entered into a correction phase which we have no idea how long or how deep its going to be...
TA tries to get an "educated" guess from using past history and dealing with mathematical odds of a happening.... but sadly that won't ease your anxiety.
From history,... Corrections when they occur have a habit (signature) of a rapid fall early in the correction phase..then a recovery (pull back).. then a lesser fall to below the earlier bottom or sometimes if we are lucky, the fall isn't as severe to create another bottom...If the correction lingers on longer than "normal" the process may repeat..These repeating types are usually more nastier beasts..The 1st steep fall is usually the behavioural "Hell there's bad news everywhere I must get out now before its too late" feeling and the recovery is the entering of buyers to pick up the "cheap" shares on offer,,the next fall starts when the previous investors who wanted to sell but left it too late get a second chance to exit as well as the quick buck merchants doing their quick in and out flick and a maybe a return of the shorters influences (if there's enough doing this type of trading?)... after that, disappointment, impatience and frustration can set in as most of the lets buy "cheap " shares have already 100% bought in... and it is now " how long it will take for investors to change their attitude from negative to positive and get this bull market moving again" time.....As I said above the process may repeat ,,this can happen when another wave of bad news is given out by the media..
Corrections are a worrying time, an average 10% bull market correction sounds like nothing in hindsight, if as it says "Bull market" the price will bottom out and come right and then rally towards new highs...but experiencing a correction first hand and feeling its uncertain outcome can be traumatic for many, and the media adds to ones anxiety by its ability to suddenly switch and dredge up massive amounts of bad news
So Far the NZX50 index has fallen about 7%..so... if it going to be your average 10% correction over 3 months then the worst is over, but expect your nerves to be jangled for a while yet because perhaps this time it's different it could be a 15% or a 19.99% correction....or......remember this is an old bull (4.25yrs old) and it might've died.....But don't panic because most of the time, these drops and pullbacks makes it very difficult in an early phase of a Bear cycle to determine a cyclic reversal point...most investors would still be bullish believing the stalling rallies creating double/triple tops is still the effects from a previous bull market correction....
Its very rare to have a crash without a pull back to commence a cyclic bear market cycle.
I hope the new investors have a strategy in place when they buy their shares...experience in the market is the only way to determine ones strengths and weaknesses and how well you make the right decisions when under anxiety and stress........having dummy runs does prepare you with the theory of buy and sell and gives you knowledge of how the market works..but...only in the market can one learn how well they can cope with the stress and mental pressures the market can put pile upon you.
Only then can one apply a strategy that makes you invest efficiently and feeling the most comfortable doing it.
Google to find different successful investment strategies and apply the one that suits....
Often a new investor begins by using the buy and hold blue chip high(ish) yield long term strategy...avoiding the Taxman at the same time.....If that is your strategy then use your discipline to ignore the waxing and waning of the Market because you are applying the assumption that in 10 or 20 years time the market would be significantly higher than now.....the dividends is your reward for patience.
When the market is crappy...and you feeling likewise..remember you wont be alone
Fantastic words Hoop.
However, there are those who embrace the dark side (shorting stocks) who can sleep well at night knowing gains can be made from the short portfolio while the longs are suffering a bit.
It is also a good lesson on why you should take profits when the markets have got a bit ahead of itself.
Thanks very much for this post Hoop. It is great reading.
Good summary Belg and hard to disagree with.
The only thing I have a slightly different view on is that I actually think a slowdown in China to more sustainable levels is good. China can not continue to grow as it has for the last few years as it is already causing some serious issues such as congestion, pollution, housing non-affordability and much more. These are all serious issues that need to be dealt with (haven't been dealt with so far) along the way and I think that is more likely to happen properly if growth slows down to say 6-8% PA. The last thing we want is China growing unsustainably and then crashing. It would have terrible consequences.
In my industry (fishing) China's appetite for almost all our products is almost impossible to satisfy and they are buying products that to date have been regarded as offal at very reasonable prices. I am sure agriculture will be in a similar position. This will not be affected by a slight slowdown in growth. So like you, I believe Companies that pay steady dividends on reasonable PE ratios will continue to be good investments, especially exporters now with the falling NZ$. I have been accumulating SAN as one such (unloved) share !
May I also thank "posters" for sharing their experience and thoughts with excellent posts.
I feel companies like EBO,FPH , HNZ, POT with growing earnings and prospect of higher dividends are safe havens.
Companies in the retirement sector RYM and SUM, have an ageing population, which will give them tail winds for a number of years.
TUA and AWF both have strong balance sheets and are well run.
So these companies, should there be weakness, will recover very quickly.
Others that I hold,ABA, AIA,PGW ,SKC ,SKL, SKT I don't know?My holdings in unlisted REL,PAZ and not listed Trutest will be interesting as will estaronline.com.
"Well positioned?"
http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-cycle/52277536#52277536
iNTERESTING .....?
BB
Percy, I find that unless you have conviction in your selection, it is easy to sell when the going gets tough. Why are you holding if you don't know why?
Also, you seem well diversified. So much so, i wonder how your returns compare to the nzx 50? May as well buy the index?
Good luck
I lost my convictions and my shirt in GFC,by holding large positions in EBO[did well], while SCY halved,and PGC and NPX had to recap.
What I did learn was not to hold too few stocks. Stocks held should have strong balance sheets,and be in a position to incease dividends.
Well last year I certainly out performed the NZX 50,and I think all funds.You may have noted I came second in Aussie competition last year with 140% or more with companies I held.
My hobby is the sharemarket,so index would be no fun at all.Don't knows, may be changed to I am almost certain? SKT a week ago was a strong hold.Today SP under pressure,yet yield is over 10% and SKY will lose few subscribers,yet business model is weakened.Now a strong watch!
I also hold a wide portfolio of small cap Aussie companies.Not a lot of money in any one company, although the way some have performed they are getting sizable.
Arr, it appears you definitely a buy and holder. Well done on your achievements so far. I note you still have SKL. I would have sold that after the first profit warning. But i think this stock should now benefit from the drop in currency.
I think HNZ Is now the cheapest stock on the exchange. All others seem expensive (or at least not cheap) and prone to drop if there are further market corrections.
SKL.Brought at a lot lower SP than today.The reasons I am holding are:
1/ strong board with skin in the game.
2/David Mair appears to be a fantastic CEO.
3/Paying a good dividend.
4/Very little debt.
5/Slow down with pumps and liners will recover.
6/Building a new factory.[Old one is as old as the hills].
7/New factory will have all new machinery.So I expect staff and general cost savings.
If I sold I may get my timing wrong buying back in.
HNZ.We agree.Next year's fully imputed 6cents divie is going to drive the SP.Would any funds manager hold HNZ,or would it be in any index?Not a bad hobby to have?
It is great having a hobby that makes you money. Hnz will be on fund managers radars soon.
... correct me if I'm wrong, this is more of a contemplation than a reality but it would be good to get an idea of whether this is likely from someone with experience.
Are we likely to see (or are already seeing) an exodus of international investment in equities now that our dollar is falling (cash out of high NZ dollar while it's still strong), and a buy-back when it looks to have rested at its low - using the stronger relative position of the fallen NZ dollar to reinvest in the markets??
I guess there's no real questions in here, more - is this a factor with the falling markets, and an equities revival point when the dollar stabilises at its low?
Terry Hall's article
Currency speculators pull claws out of kiwi
Remember this thought though... the TA dollar watchers began seeing this drop at the beginning of May... 8 weeks ago!!! The media is late in picking this up......cashing up Equities (property??), switching currencies so not to be exposed to the possible invisible double whammy seemed a good idea last month and makes perfect investment sense for everyone ..huh ..but the downunder currencies drop broke TA support so now the smart stay away and away we go in a currency downtrend
But hey what you don't see doesn't hurt you...right?
An interesting day for NZX, DJI fell last night, China down 5.3% due to tighten policy.
NZX seems to have less implications by those overseas market and walking alone.
Yes The two indexes are back in Sync (sort of) since the reversal point and as you say Bull NZX50 falls aren't as great as the AORDs..
The gap between the two indexes are narrowing towards parity :)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...5025062013.gif
Not extreme at all Moosie
This present scenario is the ideal time for a drop in the PE Ratio.... a PE under 10 (remember we are speaking CAPE) is more likely with economic growth than with stagnant growth.. P is forward looking and E is at last reporting.
P is in a downtrend as investors fret over Global events and lose focus on local events.
E is going up due to favourable NZ business/economy cycle.
Sellers outnumber Bargain Hunters
Available money diminishing....Money exiting NZ (NZ is not considered a safe Haven)
Smart money sidelined awaiting recovery
Yep, there might be a bull trap coming........or not. I guess they have a 50% chance of being right.
EW theory is something I can't grasp...I can see the waves in hindsight ..sometimes ...:)...it just gets too complicated.....sub waves and sub sub waves...meh!!.. ..all you need is sub wave to be misinterpreted and the thing is wrong ..Pure EW like most other predictions into the future fails to produce significant < 85% results...so I leave this discipline to the EW followers. The guru in this area is Robert Prechter and if you followed his advice via his newsletters over the years you wouldn't have much money left to invest. Phaedrus did an analysis of Prechters results ..its somewhere on ST.
EW is an discipline involving investor social behaviour ...Analysing Investor behaviour is my discipline area also, but the closest to EW I get is the boundary touching points within a pattern and also if I need extra confirmation on Support and resistance lines I may use the Fibonacci Retacement...I unlike the EW purists don't rely on one single discipline I use a few disciplines and use them to confirm each other...the same idea as using more than TA indicator to confirm a result...the lining up of the ducks effect:)
Moosie if you really want to go down the EW track and learn and discuss about it... PM Dumbass he is the expert in this field on ST.
My thoughts on the Market.......Most Market Indexes are broken (TA-wise) at the moment so common sense says keep out... Phaedrus MSI indicator is the best tool to indicate that broken concept.. I'm guessing the MSI is red for most global indexes...see Trackers he has Phaedrus's MSI formulae you will need Metastock software and history data to run it.
Where to from here?............for the NZX50 watch that 4335 support line.... This line orginates from the overheated 2007 market double (5) tops so it has secular meaning and could be of major importance..if the 4335 breaks the bull get sick but its not the end of the bull... The bull often dances with the MA200 line and rallys off it.. Atm the MA200 is at 4200 and rising....However dropping down below MA200 with a bit distance south of the MA200 is showing a bear trait and perhaps a dead bull.
Sub waves (not the EW kind) are corrections within a correction ....lower highs and lower lows
You always get at least correction (rally) within a correction...these rallies top out around an old support now resistance point
It usually caused by bargain hunters out numbering the sellers.
If the bargain hunters are of "the top up of my investments" type then this type of rally becomes unsustainable when the hunters are satisfied and become 100% "in"
China down 3.8% so far, another country crash after Japan.
I see as a correction rather than a crash.
If you invest in a company you think are doing well, then why should you worry?
This is the biggest mistake people make, sell up at a huge loss and say its a market crash. That's when big boys make money from little guys.
If its a good, reputable co and you haven't borrrowed money to buy shares(you should never borrow to fund shares), don't sell them.
dear gv...never a truer (?) word said....as I have said in the past some folks investment horizon is quite frankly a reflection of how many folk view success....a quick buck made ..an enormous feeling of self satisfaction whilst living in their 300 square meter mansion thinking that they "have finally arrived"....I could go on ....cheers
Might look good from a NZ market perspective as we have had a 4.25 years of good times (bull market cycle) ...but the poor buggers over in China have endured a 3 year bear market cycle (twice as long as the average bear) and seeing their index drop from 3550 to 1950..Remember it reached 6000 in Mid 2007...The Shanghai bear supposedly died around Xmas 2012....things were on the mend up until the last week of May and in the next 3 weeks the index has dropped 15% testing the 1950 bear cycle lows again....if it drops some more in the next week or two it will be deemed a crash and a destructive crash it will be as market had an increasing accumulation trend up until 3 week ago....also if it drops any more the 6 month old Bull will have prematurely died and the market will be back enduring the lower highs and lower lows bear market cycle....Soul destroying stuff
Put NZX50 into Shanghai perspective the NZX50 index would be 2600 not the present 4400. Think the price of your favourite share (what you bought it for?) then divide it by 2 and imagine it going down in the past 4 years to this price with no end to future drops in sight...much higher dividend yield now?..yeah for the investors who got out and buying back in now ...the "buy and hold" investors dividend yield stays the same as you paid for the share.
Seems Chinese regulators are willing to step in and avoid large defaults by local governments.
European markets just jumped on the news. Should motivate both the S&P500 and NZ50 to bounce from where they are at also, both sitting smack on 2007 support levels.
Let’s hope for a bit of relief in the market tomorrow, possibly some signs of the correction bottoming also ?.
Did not sell and did not buy, just watching and walked away. Have been traded since I was 16 in China. Luckly enough to experience two big cycles and major crashes, 2001 and 2007. Seen this kind of scene often.
China may suffer mainly from the property side, rather than share market. Currently it has cash crunch issue, bond and share funds all trying to cash out then caused bond and share markets crash.
The next half year is really a chanllenge for Chinese property market, hope not like 2007 USA property market......bury in mind.
Yeah, Hi Sparky.
I guess it is and it is not psychology at work . Its all about good investment decisions. Iam a full-time trader, still learning and I refuse to borrow money to fund shares until I have learnt my game.
Whole life is a game..how you play is important.
Hi Mista trix
Yeah bit of everything. I can't do any 8-5 job,because of my personal situation. I did in and out of market daily few years ago but have stopped beacause I now see as investing in good growth etc companies is better than the stress of doing it daily in case if you can not be at computer/internet for some reason, loss can be huge. Hope this helps and all the best in investing.
It makes me wonder as well what the research would say balancing - the potential financial gains made from intraday trading, vs, the likely long term health problems (heart, blood pressure) from the stress, versus holding value companies and having better health... a little tongue in cheek, but also a little seriously.
I don't know how any of the intraday guys do it - too much stress for me :-S
Anyways, well off topic. A much better looking market today.
Update
Since that post 2 weeks ago this correction has intensified The 4400 TA Target has been overtaken and now the next supports come into play. The primary support involving the previous Bull market top back in 2007 is in play...its a positive seeing the NZX50 jumping back above this primary support.... This primary support has secular meaning (a classic signature of a secular Bear market cycle [not always but most of the time] is its flat top pattern) If this classic signature pattern holds true this time then we are witnessing a cyclic reversal and the death of the 4.25 year old Bull.
Its still early days ..so best to keep this possible cyclic reversal as a cautionary thought until there's further evidence to confirm (buy signals) ......It may take weeks as cyclic reversals to Bear market (phase 1) are very hard to spot in their infancy.
Where to from here ...take it day by day...We are more likely witnessing a relief rally which could peter out at a resistance point watch these areas:
....the 4400 medium term resistance line
....The MA100 resistance line
....the 4475 short term resistance line
Each resistance hurdle the index breaks above strengthens the chance that the bull is still alive.
It would be premature to assume the correction is over, it is only 6 weeks old, the average investor should wait for confirmation..if you are a short term investor you will already be "in" today and be riding out this upward bounce.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...5026062013.gif
What websites do you all read to keep on top of the NZX, both in terms of factual reporting and opinion/analysis pieces??
I've been put off Stuff (tabloid), Herald (inaccurate or fact light speculative reporting - MFT yesterday) and NBR is good but the locked content can be a pain.
What else is in the mix for you all?
Looking good.
I'll surmise they have bought the rest back in June too.