Have built a bit of VBA to run a modest Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of defaults and gross returns.
The simulations maintained a close proximity to Harmoney's advertised default rates and timing yet still generated a wide variance in default values. It's a cautionary view for those "testing the water" with a small sum of money - it is essentially gambling on being fortunate.
The results also generated a simulated return 1% below the return Harmoney suggest should be achieved. I could have a logical or modelling method error somewhere but haven't found anything yet so am slightly suspicious of their methodology.
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