The Possum Theory of Risk
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Paper Tiger
So I have read all of Snoopy's original post and checked his figures and have no complaints there (though if anybody does want a good discussion of what are applicable inclusions and exclusions - do not phone me)...
But...
If UDC have a 1.43% impairment provision and Heartland have a 1.09% impairment provision then I do not see how the emphasised conclusion can be drawn from the data.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Quote:
Originally Posted by
percy
Neither do I...lol.
I have to admit I couldn't quite understand the post you both referred to either. This is a bit of a worry considering it was I that wrote it!
So perhaps I should back track a bit, to a more easily understood piece of kiwi culture: "the possum theory of risk".
The possum theory of risk goes like this.
Scenario 1: You are driving along in your car and you see no possums, either the reflections of their eyeballs, or flattened on the road. Does this mean there was no risk, or does it mean that you just didn't see the possums?
Scenario 2: You are driving along the road and you see lots of possum eyeball reflections at different stages, but you don't hit any. Do you see those possums as they scramble to the edge of the road for safety? Or are they frozen in the middle of the road caught in the headlights?
Scenario 3: You are driving along the road, you see a few possum eyeballs and you hit a few possums. You might say that a dead possum is written off. But as a fresh kill, do you stop, put it in the back of the wagon and skin and boil up the carcass to at least get some return from the beast? And are you really a reckless driver for hitting so many possums? Or are you a supreme driver for only hitting one or two possums when there are so many out there?
If this is all to cryptic for some of you, substitute 'bank manager' for driver, 'vulnerable loan' for possum, and 'impaired loan' for road kill possum and see where you get with the analogy !
SNOOPY
Notice that I am not using the B word
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Paper Tiger
{20-Jan-2016} Well it had to happen sometime - I sold a Heartland share (or two).
I have finished a sell down of 35% of my HBL holding but currently I am intending to keep the remaining 65%.
Whether it or SCL is now the biggest holding in my NZ portfolio will literally depend on the market price.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Beginning to think that the best thing to buy with the proceeds of my Heartland sell-down is Heartland !
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger