Your onto it, my wife found in her last position that it was often harder to sell the new units over the refurbished older ones due to price and layout.
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You might get your $6.50 if Q4 sales disappoint.
I think revaluations will be the biggest play on the share price, personally.
Retirement unit is a finite resource. Good unit in good location is often popular. Just try to think like buying a house. Some folks prefer not leaving/living too far from their original neighbourhood, where they are used to the neighbourhood, approximate to their friends and family, or may even be their bowling clubs. Hence, people maybe looking to pick up a unit in the existing area, instead of moving to a completely new area. For example that I have been living in Epsom for so long, will I move to Hobsonvile Point for my retirement? For sure I will look around in the area first, before giving a thought moving to an outer area.
chart breaking down on those bad results
The price revaluation is an attempt to buy up more shares by large investors. Smaller ones will sell out through the pressure of seeming to be less of a positive return. This charade is always hilarious to watch. Plays out every few years and the next thing.... boom... new over all share price high. Don't get distracted team. Eye on the long game for this one and a couple of OCAs
I decided not to give them the benefit of the doubt. Many thanks to Winner for graphically representing the new sales decline in post 6886. You do some very good work on here with your graphs Winner which is of very good service to all and is much appreciated. I tried my best to give them the benefit of the doubt but six quarters in a row of disappointing new sales results is not a spasmodic thing, its a trend. The fact that Summerset chose to ignore my advice to a fixed fees for life model is also a factor here as is the 50% increase in share price since December 2017 against a series of disappointing sales results.
Some accountants (including myself) believe that cash flow is the life blood of business and its worth noting that although underlying profit was up 54% last year cash flow was up just 7.8%. Finally, technically this is also looking bad. I'm out for now and will reevaluate down the track if the price corrects to be more commensurate with the current sales performance of the company.
How exciting. We are all getting pessimistic. I like it when that happens :cool:
Retirement villages aren't like going down to the dairy and getting a bottle of A2. They take time to build and they take time for the demographic to move through. Still holding and waiting for the young 'uns to get older.