Originally Posted by
mistaTea
You are essentially saying that those who were buying Sky @280M Market Cap were taking more RISK than those who are now buying Sky @370M Market Cap. You've lost me.
An investor who understands the business would have formed some view of probability around Sky hanging on to the majority of their key contracts or not. In fact, it would be impossible to assess the likelihood of a future earning profile unless you had some notion in mind as to Sky's ability to hold onto key contracts (after all, if Sky have no content deals they have no business). You may not have gotten down to the detail of predicting specific contracts (i.e HBO, NZR etc). But you will have (or should have) formed a view on Sky's continuing ability to win important deals.
I would always argue that the risk you face as a business owner has nothing to do with market sentiment at any point in time and is all to do with how your business is performing, facing down threats, allocating capital, making decisions that benefit the shareholder etc.